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   Strategies & Market TrendsStrong Industry Groups - Strong Stocks


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To: Sam Raven who wrote (697)10/31/2001 11:00:22 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Well be watching for DRIV to break again tomorrow. PEP and SLM as well. The day was really a sleeper. Even though NEM was up, it is hard for me to get very interested in gold stocks....

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject10/31/2001 11:13:56 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Regarding Consumer Confidence from today's Savvy Trader commentary:

Consumer (no)-Confidence dropped over 10 points. So how does it happen that this index is so much weaker than the the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey?

It turns out, like any other survey, it has to do with what is asked. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey explicitly asks about the labor market and business conditions, while the University of Michigan survey asks about financial well being and buying plans. Also, the Conference Board survey looks out 6 months while the University of Michigan survey looks out 1 to 5 years. Consumers seem to believe that the economy will recover with the longer time span.

The decline in consumer confidence is very much like the decline we saw when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August of 1990. At that time the economy was close to a recession, which did come by the third quarter of 1992. After the initial drop in consumer confidence in August 1990, confidence dropped more than 30 additional points, as the economy remained weak following the end of the war. There are a few differences that make this time around different, this time there is little inflation and unemployment is not expected to climb as high. However, this time the war, and how to fight it, isn't as clear, and there is much more fear in the public. Don't be surprised if we see a deeper drop in consumer confidence. But, a bit of good news...

In January 1991 when we engaged the Iraq's, the stock market started up, despite a still weakening economy.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject10/31/2001 11:34:58 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Signs are looking a little better for tomorrow. The market internals improved today. As did the screened stock ratio at 6.4 to 5.0 favoring buying. The market risk moves back down to moderate.

We finally saw some strength moving back into a few sectors. As groups, biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment and software and look the best.

FHCC might get some pre-earnings buying, earnings are Monday. We'll set an alert at 27.2. ADVP on the watchlist also reports Monday.

International Game Technology (IGT) releases earnings on next Tuesday, we'll watch for some buying today alerting 51.62.

Longs to watch: ADVP, ARXX, DLX, DRIV, FE, GDT, HNT, NETA, NOVN and STJ.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (700)11/1/2001 4:22:24 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
I was expecting something out of ADVP today, oh well, there were lots of good trades today. Hopefully we can keep some upward momentum for a day or two.

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (700)11/1/2001 5:52:34 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
And NOVN issued a upside pre-announcement, whew, to bad it isn't help the stock in the after hours.

Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/2/2001 12:23:11 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
The market internals were mixed Thursday, one of those days where both new highs and new lows increased in the NYSE. The screened stock ratio weakened to where volume was equal between up trending stocks and down trending stocks, at 5.0 to 5.0 the market risk remains moderate, however, due to both the screened stock ratio and the likely profit taking off Thursday's gains, I'd be a little cautious.
  
Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment and software remain strong sectors, technology stocks seem are making more and more gains on other sectors.

Longs to watch: APOL, ATK, APC, DRIV, DLX, MRCY, SYK and TTWO.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 4:24:31 AM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
Long weekend....but should be an interesting week.

The market internals were mixed again on Friday, but the screened stock ratio went positive at 7.7 to 3.2 favoring buying, the market risk drops back to low.

Again, Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment and software remain strong sectors.

Longs to watch: ADP, APOL, CPRT, FE, GD, GDT, HCC, ITT, PBG and SLM.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who wrote (704)11/5/2001 7:51:12 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
It wasn't hard to find a winner today, ADP, APOL, FE, GDT, ITT, PBG and SLM all alerted and look good. GD was the only one that alerted and looks iffy in the list, and it may get support near Friday's low and be worth a look then.

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 7:58:19 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
My thoughts on tomorrow's Fed meeting:

Traders, markets and the economy face another meeting of the Federal Reserve this week. And, again the market and most economists are predicting another 1/2 point rate cut putting interest rates at 2%.

Yet again, I'll play the odd man out. Even though "they" say the Federal Reserve has been afraid to "disappoint" the markets, and the market is saying 1/2 point, I think a 1/4 point cut makes more sense. Frankly, I believe the same arguments apply as the last Federal Reserve meeting.

An extra 1/4 point does not add that much additional benefit, especially after having such a long series of cuts, yet it reduces the Federal Reserves future options. Already the Federal Reserve is pushing on a string waiting for previous rate cuts to work their magic. In the meantime what is needed is more fiscal stimulus. There has never been a more appropriate time to give the taxpayers a rebate, even if just $100 dollars, before Christmas would provide consumers and businesses a much needed financial and psychological boost.

The Federal Reserve is feeling unusually high pressure to revive growth, and many folks adding to the pressure seem to think we should see at least 1/2 point. Additionally, there is no inflation and energy prices are dropping, so inflation concerns as a reason to slow rate cuts will not be looked upon as a reasonable excuse.

But as the Fed may have overdone the rate increase two years ago, they may be in position having to sharply increase the rates when the economy turns back up, after all, interest rates are already below the rate of inflation. That effect on sentiment will be a larger blow than only 1/4 point cut.

So I'm hoping Chairman Greenspan, takes a conservative approach on interest rates, and promotes some Christmas shopping in the form of a tax rebate.

Expect to hear the results of the Feds deliberations Tuesday at 2.


Sam

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To: Sam Raven who started this subject11/5/2001 10:20:07 PM
From: Sam Raven
   of 1567
 
After the close today, better than expected earnings were released from ADVP, CEPH and CSCO. All traded higher in the after market and should help give the market a boost tomorrow.

The market internals were back to positive, and the screened stock ratio was very strong at 11.6 to 2.3 favoring buying, the market risk remains low. 

Biotechs, discount retailers, medical equipment, semiconductors and software remain strong sectors. Technology was strong Monday, and after the CSCO earnings report it should be a strong group again today.

Be careful about the volatility that comes with Fed meetings, best to be out of positions that you are close to stopping out of anyway.

Longs to watch: ABI, ADP, ADVP, APOL, GILD, MSCC, SLM and TJX.

Good Trading!!

Sam
savvy-trader.com

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