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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (109)2/14/2007 1:39:07 PM
From: Glenn Petersen
   of 133
The Motley Fool has a good take on the results:

All Knotted Up

By Rick Aristotle Munarriz

February 13, 2007

Looks can be deceiving on a wedding day. Matrimonial planning hub The Knot (Nasdaq: KNOT) posted spectacular fourth-quarter results this morning, on the surface. Revenues shot up 70% to hit $21.7 million. Profitability exploded, soaring to $0.45 per diluted share after a $0.06 per-share showing a year earlier.

Snap that picture. Now let's smear those good looks with some wedding cake in the face.

Like a budding bride, The Knot is still radiant under all of the makeup. However, as stock watchers we have to go beyond skin-deep investing. The top line soared, but a lot of that was due to the company's acquisition of The Wedding Channel back in September. Organic revenue shot up a more modest -- though clearly still respectable -- 29% for the quarter.

The bottom-line explosion also needs to be hacked away at to find the company's inner beauty. One has to back out favorable charges in the form of a $9.4 million accounting adjustment and a $1.2 million legal settlement. As it turns out, The Knot holds up reasonably well there, too. Without the charges, earnings per share would have doubled to $0.12, a penny ahead of Wall Street's expectations.

For all of 2006, The Knot showed healthy spurts across all of its business lines. Its merchandise, online advertising, and publishing units all grew their top lines by at least 20%.

That is a nicer sound than the clang of aluminum cans tied behind a newlywed couple's limo, yet the stock still opened 9% lower today on the news.

Did The Knot blow it? Not really. The stock soared 129% last year, and had tacked on another 15% advance so far this year. Marginally beating analyst profit targets sometimes isn't enough with all of that baked in helium.

However, this morning's dip offers the opportunity to study up on a company that should reap the benefits of its Wedding Channel purchase in the future. Online bridal registries are a logical fit for The Knot. It also now has another high-traffic site that it can use to lure even more wedding services providers.

Generating online leads hasn't been a universal road map to success. The Knot and financial rate provider Bankrate (Nasdaq: RATE) have been big winners over the past two years, yet others like Insweb (Nasdaq: INSW) and Autobytel (Nasdaq: ABTL) -- in insurance and car shopping, respectively -- have struggled.

The keys may be that The Knot is toiling away in a lucrative niche and that it is the leader in wedding planning. So feel free to wipe off the makeup. Oh, and that wedding cake too. The Knot is still a natural beauty. Go ahead. Snap that picture.

The Knot and Bankrate have been recommended to Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers. You can learn more about The Knot and the other newsletter market crushers with a free 30-day trial subscription.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz got married years before was around and he regrets that. He could have had a punctual person working the video camera that day. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (110)2/21/2007 3:27:11 AM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 133

I sold most of my shares above $28 in mid-Jan. Have been watching the stock falter here. Am looking for a good re-entry point. Stock looks oversold here, but I am looking for it to test its 200-day MA around $22. Hopefully it doesn't get there.

KNOT has been very good to me. I can't argue with a 10-bagger in 3.5 years. I have no complaints. Good luck!

BTW, what other stocks are you looking at these days?


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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (111)3/9/2007 4:11:55 AM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 133
Think we move to $25.5 from here ($23.5). But still looking for additional consolidation in KNOT. Would like to pick this up sub $20.

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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (112)3/29/2007 12:04:20 PM
From: Glenn Petersen
   of 133
Would like to pick this up sub $20.

You may get your wish. If you do, I will be joining you.

The Knot Marries Fast Growth, Obscene Margins

By Jack Hough

March 21, 2007

KEEP A HANKY handy. This love-against-all-adds story has the makings of a miniseries on Oxygen, the women's channel. (Only it comes with a stock pick.) It starts in December 1999 with the marriage of Wall Street and The Knot (KNOT1). The company owns a wedding information web site,, and makes most of its money by selling ads for honeymoon resorts and such. It wasn't profitable at the time. Its losses were mounting, in fact. But they were mounting less quickly than sales.

In its first year of operation in 1996 (via America Online; didn't launch until 1997) The Knot generated $71,000 in sales, but it spent more than 10 times that amount in operating expenses. Two years later sales topped $1 million. Operating expenses ballooned, too, but were now less than three times sales. On Wall Street in 1999 that was enough good news for an Internet company to raise $35 million by issuing shares of itself to investors, as The Knot did, at $15 apiece on Dec. 2.

Things were stormy from the start. Shares gained 69 cents the following day. They lost $1.63 the next day and $1.18 the day after that. Investors gradually decided that profits were fashionable again and clever business plans without profits were not. Within two years of their debut, The Knot shares fetched 25 cents apiece, for a loss of more than 98%.

Today the stock goes for $24 and change. If you've held it since the initial offering you're up 60% over a time when the Nasdaq stock market through which The Knot trades has lost 28%. The company turned its first profit in 2003, and gradually improved over the next couple of years, but last year it produced a stunning increase. Sales jumped 41% to more than $71 million, while operating expenses rose only 27% to $47 million. Add some investment interest and take out for taxes and you're left with a $23 million profit — vs. just $4 million in 2005. Wall Street analysts were caught by surprise. The Knot surpassed their quarterly targets all year by an average of more than 20%.

The fast growth caught the attention of one of our stock screens, appropriately named the Fast Growth screen. It looks for rapid increases in sales and earnings and projections for more of the same, along with a dose of share-price momentum. (Run it anytime you like using our stock screener2 and screen recipe3, and check out some other companies4 that recently survived the screen.) Of course, finding fast-growing companies isn't the same as finding ones whose shares are poised to head higher. But there's reason to believe The Knot shares remain under-priced. More on that in a moment.

Last year The Knot made only half of its money from advertising. It has three other sources of income. It brought in 21% of sales by selling wedding-themed merchandise through its web site, mostly personalized or hard-to-find items, like disposable cameras for reception tables, only in plain white. The company also publishes wedding magazines and books and dabbles in co-producing television programs with Oxygen, for a quarter of last year's sales. Finally, just 4% of sales came from the company's registry business, whereby couples solicit gifts on the site from a selection of retailers, and those retailers pay The Knot a commission for the right to be included.

The Knot currently enjoys more than 80% of wedding-themed web site traffic. It owes part of that dominance, and much of its profit growth last year, to its purchase last June of its largest competitor, Wedding Channel, for $58 million in cash and $1.1 million in stock. A planning specialist, Wedding Channel has an active registry program that enjoys gross margins of 99%, say analysts.

Current trends bode well for at least two of the company's four businesses. Customers are shifting en masse from print publications to online ones and advertisers are following. Still, The Knot currently collects just 3% of the more than $1.4 billion spending on wedding-targeted ads, according to CIBC, an investment bank. Local vendors spend less than half as much with The Knot as with the yellow pages. Both suggest the company has room to grow. It also has pricing power. In July it raised rates 20%. The registry business may hold the biggest promise. In 2005 web sites attracted about 20% of registry spending and Wedding Channel (now The Knot) captured just 2%. CIBC analyst Jason Helfstein sees web sites collecting 30% of registry sales by 2009 and The Knot, 15%.

To those promising signs add that the wedding business is nearly recession-proof, as families tend to save up for years or borrow to spend big whether they can afford to or not, and that the industry carries obscene margins, judging by how $800 worth of photography suddenly costs $3,000 when it's for a wedding. Profits for the company are now projected to increase by a whopping 40% a year over the next five years. The stock now trades at a seemingly pricey 52 times Wall Street's 2007 earnings forecast. But that might be too cheap; divide the price/earnings ratio by the growth forecast and you get a PEG ratio of 1.3, suggesting a discount of more than 15% to the broad market.

One cautionary note: Fast-growing companies with rising share prices sometimes get carried away in issuing new shares to raise money. That hurts existing shareholders. The Knot issued several million shares last year. The number doesn't seem excessive and the use of the proceeds (Wedding Channel) seems justified. But watch for a string of new stock offerings if you own shares. Of course, the antidote for liberal stock issuance is a management team that owns shares. The company's three top bosses together hold close to a million shares, but they've been sellers of late. All told, the stock looks promising, but only if the bosses can keep the share count from expanding like a wedding invite list.

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (113)3/29/2007 1:03:46 PM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 133
I just read that. Seems KNOT has further to fall. Haven't looked at the chart recently, but the downward momentum is pretty strong.

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From: Glenn Petersen5/9/2007 8:10:30 PM
   of 133
KNOT was down $3.42 in after hours trading:

The Knot Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results

Wednesday May 9, 4:05 pm ET

Revenue Rises 43% and Pre-Tax Income Increases 55%

Reminder: Conference Call Today at 4:30 ET Dial In (800) 638-7172, Conference ID# 6138776

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT - News, - News), a leading lifestage media company targeting couples planning their weddings and future lives together, today reported financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2007.

First Quarter 2007 Results

For the first three months of 2007, net revenues rose 43% to $21.0 million from $14.8 million in the first quarter of 2006. Revenue from national and local online advertising programs increased by 38% over the prior year's first quarter. Merchandise revenue from the sale of wedding supplies grew 50% while publishing and other revenues recorded a small gain. Registry services revenue, which is derived substantially through the WeddingChannel business that was acquired in September 2006, amounted to $1.8 million in the recent quarter.

Income before income taxes increased to $2.8 million in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to $1.8 million a year ago. The provision for income taxes was $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2007 and $103,000 in the corresponding period in 2006. The provision for income taxes for the first quarter 2006 was reduced by the utilization of net operating loss carryforwards. Net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $1.6 million or $0.05 per basic and diluted share as compared to $0.07 per basic and diluted share in the first quarter of 2006.

Commenting on The Knot's results, Chief Executive Officer David Liu said, "We are very pleased with the strong growth in our local online advertising and merchandise businesses and the performance of the registry services operation acquired through WeddingChannel. We are working to resolve the performance issues affecting our national online advertising programs so we can begin to more effectively sell consolidated marketing packages across The Knot and WeddingChannel websites. Meanwhile we see great potential for growth in several recent initiatives including the launch of, and The Knot's lifestyle gift registry powered by Macy's."

First Quarter 2007 Financial Highlights

National and local online revenues were $3.5 million and $7.3 million, respectively, for the three months ended March 31, 2007, as compared to $2.7 million and $5.1 million for the corresponding period in 2006.

-- Gross profit margins for merchandise revenue were approximately 53% and 50% for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.

-- Gross profit margins for publishing and other revenue were approximately 61% and 67% for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.

-- Total operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2007 included approximately $1.0 million representing the amortization of acquired intangible assets recorded in connection with the acquisition of WeddingChannel.

-- Stock-based compensation expense was $472,000 and $329,000 for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.

-- Net cash provided by operating activities was $7.5 million in the first quarter of 2007 while capital expenditures amounted to $657,000.

Recent Developments

In February, the Company launched, the web's first hub for real parent reviews of local baby stores, gear, and services. has 32,000 listings and over 120,000 reviews from parents who want to share their advice on baby products, services and activities in 5,000 neighborhoods across the United States.

In March, The Knot signed a two-year agreement with Macy's Wedding & Gift Registry making Macy's the exclusive retail partner providing products on registry. The Lifestyle Registry, a registry tool located on, is designed to help couples jump-start the overwhelming process of registering for gifts and customize their registry to fit their lifestyle needs. This innovative tool is an example of The Knot's commitment to making planning a wedding and its surrounding events easier for its users.

Also, in March, The Knot Guide to Destination Weddings, The Knot's latest book, arrived on bookshelves in support of one of the biggest trends in weddings. Author Carley Roney debuted the book on NBC's TODAY Show as she talked ideas and fashion for far-flung nuptials.

Conference Call and Webcast

The Knot will host a conference call with investors at 4:30 p.m., ET on Wednesday, May 9, 2007, to discuss its first quarter financial results. Participants should dial-in (800) 638-7172, Conference ID# 6138776. Please dial-in 10 minutes before the call is scheduled to begin.

Participants can also access the live broadcast over the Internet on the Investor Relations section of The Knot Web site, accessible at To access the Web cast, participants should visit The Knot web site at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call in order to download or install any necessary audio software.

A replay of the Web cast will also be archived on The Knot Web site approximately 2 hours after the conference call ends for a period of two weeks and will also be available at 800-642-1687 reference #6138776.

About The Knot, Inc.

The Knot (NASDAQ: KNOT; is a leading lifestage media and services company. The Company's flagship brand, The Knot, is the nation's leading wedding resource that reaches over 1 million engaged couples each year through the web, newsstands, bookstores, national television and more. Its wedding websites, and are the most-trafficked online wedding destinations for information and registry gifts. The Company also offers a diverse collection of print publications including national and regional wedding magazines, seven books, a video on demand (VOD) service for Comcast Cable, and content distribution partnerships with MSN, Scripps Howard and The McClatchy Company. The Knot owns and operates several brands targeted before and beyond the wedding day, including newlywed resource The Nest (, party-planning portal, teen site, online personals site and a localized information resource for parents, "the lilaguide" ( The Knot is based in New York and has several other offices across the country.

This release may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of The Knot. These statements are only predictions and reflect the current beliefs and expectations of The Knot. Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the projections or forward-looking statements. It is routine for internal projections and expectations to change as the quarter progresses, and therefore it should be clearly understood that the internal projections and beliefs upon which The Knot bases its expectations may change prior to the end of the quarter. Although these expectations may change, The Knot will not necessarily inform you if they do. The Knot's policy is to provide its expectations not more than once per quarter, and not to update that information until the next quarter. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained herein include, without limitation, (i) The Knot's unproven business model and limited operating history, (ii) The Knot's history of losses, (iii) risks related to The Knot's recent acquisition of WeddingChannel, (iv) the significant fluctuation to which The Knot's quarterly revenues and operating results are subject, (v) the seasonality of the wedding industry and (vi) other factors detailed in documents The Knot files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements in this release are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

The Knot Inc.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(in thousands)

March 31, December 31,
2007 2006
----------- ------------
(Unaudited) (Audited)
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $48,733 $73,633
Short-term investments 39,375 7,000
Accounts receivable, net 9,969 9,743
Inventories 1,653 1,345
Deferred production and marketing costs 535 584
Deferred tax assets, current portion 7,877 8,369
Other current assets 1,426 1,500
----------- ------------
Total current assets 109,568 102,174

Property and equipment, net 8,731 9,376

Intangible assets, net 33,774 34,015
Goodwill 33,392 33,854
Deferred tax assets 23,617 24,490
Other assets 320 342
----------- ------------
Total assets $209,402 $204,251
=========== ============

Liabilities and stockholders' equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable and accrued expenses $6,680 $7,661
Deferred revenue 14,036 10,498
Current portion of long-term debt 51 51
----------- ------------
Total current liabilities 20,767 18,210

Deferred tax liabilities 15,004 15,014
Long term debt 55 55
Other liabilities 530 548
----------- ------------
Total liabilities 36,356 33,827

Stockholders' equity:
Common stock 313 311
Additional paid-in-capital 189,894 188,909
Accumulated deficit (17,161) (18,796)
----------- ------------
Total stockholders' equity 173,046 170,424
----------- ------------
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $209,402 $204,251
=========== ============

Note: Certain prior year amounts have been reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation.

The Knot Inc.
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(in thousands, except per share amounts)

Three months ended
March 31,
2007 2006
Net revenues:
Online sponsorship and advertising $10,776 $7,799
Registry Services 1,760 59
Merchandise 4,631 3,079
Publishing and other 3,861 3,814
Total net revenues 21,029 14,751

Cost of revenues 4,016 3,129

Gross profit 17,012 11,622

Operating expenses:
Product and content development 3,144 1,786
Sales and marketing 5,890 4,714
General and administrative 4,085 3,262
Depreciation and amortization 2,108 372
Total operating expenses 15,227 10,134

Income from operations 1,785 1,488

Interest and other income, net 987 300

Income before income taxes $2,772 $1,788
Provision for income taxes 1,138 103

Net income $1,634 $1,685

Basic earnings per share $0.05 $0.07
Diluted earnings per share $0.05 $0.07
Weighted average number of common shares
Basic 30,811,815 23,084,722
Diluted 32,832,516 25,578,559

Note: Certain prior year amounts have been reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation.

VMW Corporate & Investor Relations
Vicki Weiner/Sylvia Dresner, 212-616-6161

Source: The Knot, Inc.

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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (114)6/12/2007 8:50:13 AM
From: Glenn Petersen
   of 133
While I am not a technician, Chris Schumacher has an interesting article that suggests that KNOT is probably headed lower. Click on the URL and take a look at the chart.

Note to GP: Learn how to post graphical information on SI.

Bears Look to Tie Up Knot

By Chris Schumacher Contributor

6/12/2007 7:33 AM EDT

While I was engaged to be married, Knot (KNOT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) became a favorite stock of mine through most of 2005 and 2006. My fiance would look at this wedding-planner Web site daily for hours on end, planning virtually every facet of our wedding, which took place in April 2006.

However, whenever I would mention this story to friends and colleagues, they would invariably say the same thing: I was seeing the effect of increased advertising dollars, which coupled with a broad market uptrend in 2005 and 2006 meant that this was a stock that did very well during this period.

Now, fast forward to the first half of 2007.

Since Knot shares experienced strong distribution pressure above $30 early in the year, the stock's story has been one of aggressive distribution. This type of selloff can be seen when there is consistent volume as price declines.

The decline will normally show a series, or progression of lower highs and lower lows. This is a result of failed rallies, which occur when institutional support is willing to step in and buy weakness for a bit, but are not willing to build huge positions and chase the stock higher.

Instead, these institutions are buying weakness in anticipation of retail traders who are willing to buy highs, and then they unload the position on them. Selling into this retail buying allows for quicker profits and less risk.

This aggressive distribution pressure appears to be continuing, and the first major test for the bulls since the stock's gap down in May will occur this week. If the bulls fail to drive the stock price higher above the downtrend channel resistance, the bears should push the stock price at least back to the downtrend channel support at $18.

The ideal setup for this trade will be to see price behavior fail at the downtrend channel resistance. If this happens, an entry at $21.50 with a stop at $23.50 will yield $2.00 in risk.

The first profit target will be placed at $18, where partial profits could be taken. The final profit target would be $15.50.

If the price of the stock moves under $18.75 without first offering an entry, this trade setup is no longer valid.*

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (116)6/12/2007 10:31:42 AM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 133
Hi Glenn,

It's bumping on it's 50-day MA as resistance and overall it's still in a down trend. I have bought some KNOT back in the $18-19 range. If we can't start a new uptrend here, then I think we will see $16.


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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (117)6/13/2007 6:32:12 AM
From: Glenn Petersen
   of 133
If we can't start a new uptrend here, then I think we will see $16.

That may be a good target.

The following announcement made in early 1999 would have been good for a 20% one-day pop:

The Knot, Inc. is Proud to Announce the Arrival of

Tuesday June 12, 2:03 pm ET

Leading Lifestage Media Company Launches Web Hub to Coach First-Time Parents Through Pregnancy & Parenthood

NEW YORK, June 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Before their third anniversary, 60% of's annual 1+ million newlyweds will be pregnant. In response to the growing demand for pregnancy advice and resources, The Knot Inc. (Nasdaq: KNOT - News) a leading lifestage media and services company, has given birth to a new hip and helpful hub for first-time parents:

Designed using the one-stop web resource model that made the Internet's most popular online wedding planning destination, has been crafted to guide the information-hungry parents of the 4+ million babies born in the U.S. each year through the uncharted territory of pregnancy and parenthood by bringing modern advice, an active community, and detailed local content together in a single website.

Harnessing the power of social networking, connects parents to their peers and personalized advice -- using an unparalleled combination of user-generated content and up-to-date community features including baby blogs, local reviews, lists, profiles, photo galleries, and topic-based message boards. This highly interactive community gives moms to-be 24-hour access to the equivalent of thousands of phone calls to friends (many of whom have already connected through the online communities on and

Like, also provides pregnant moms and new parents with essential information such as stage-by-stage advice, expert Q&As, interactive tools, product reviews, checklists, as well as local events listings and resource reviews powered by, the Web's largest searchable database of real-parent feedback on local baby doctors, stores, and services.

"For years the brides who planned their weddings on have been begging us to create 'The Knot for new moms,'" explains Carley Roney, The Knot Cofounder & Editor in Chief. " combines our tell-it-like-it-is approach to advice with super-addictive social networking features and deep local content -- in a single destination." comes click-ready with these key features:


Building upon the already burgeoning pre-pregnancy conversations on (The Knot Inc.'s online resource for recently married couples), begins its relationship with users even before the positive pregnancy test. The site has niche communities and editorial areas devoted to infertility, adoption, twins, and more.


Access to candid reviews and contact information for the best ranked family-friendly eateries, baby gear retailers, nurses, nannies, pediatricians, music and gym classes, mommy networks, and more, broken down by zip code in thousands of neighborhoods in 30 U.S. cities, from Brooklyn to Newport Beach.


From morning sickness to labor pains and sleepless nights with an infant, users can check in-by trimester and baby stage-with other soon-to-be moms and new parents for support in numbers (at any time, day or night).


Create a family homepage at, where you can post pics of your growing belly, nursery, and newborn, alongside personal blog entries, message board posts, and favorite articles on


Get answers to hundreds of essential (or embarrassing) questions on fertility, pregnancy, or baby care from other real moms and our panel of pros (ob-gyns, midwives, fertility specialists, lactation consultants, therapists, and pediatricians) who are all parents too.


Play with a myriad of interactive tools designed to help you have fun while you prepare for baby's arrival, from when to get pregnant to what to pack in your baby bag. Plus, find out if the addicting Chinese gender chart really works!


Nicolas or Nathaniel? Amanda or Addison? Check out TheNestBaby Editor's blog on the best baby namers on the Web, and stop by the baby naming board to poll thousands of other moms on your potential nomers.


Shop for hundreds of personalized baby gifts, nursery essentials and an array of adorable, creative products for parents and their bundles of joy: from sentimental presents to unique favors for a stylish baby shower.

The Nest Baby can be found at


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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (118)6/13/2007 11:11:47 AM
From: Tom Caruthers
   of 133
Thanks Glenn,

This is the logical direction and a potentially lucrative one. But it will take time to see if they can get any traction. If I were them, I'd acquire BabyCenter (they already have an alliance with them) or some other major baby site that has traction.


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