| To: edamo who wrote (148757) | 12/9/1999 5:49:00 AM | | From: Dorine Essey | | | |
Edamo,
re:good luck, relax, turn off cnbc, watch soap operas or jerry springer...less drama!!! ed a.
ME?????????? you must be kidding!!!!!!VBG
I do love DELL but I also am into other stocks.
Dorine |
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| To: calgal who wrote (148790) | 12/9/1999 6:01:00 AM | | From: Dorine Essey | | | |
Hi leigh,
A little bad news this am. Maybe this is why we were DOWN yesterday.
The Market Guru.com Announces Completion of the Guru's Top Ten and Bottom Ten
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 9, 1999--TheMarketGuru.com, a leading provider of independent market research, announced today the completion of the Guru's Top Ten and Bottom Ten lists. The Guru and his assistants will update the lists on the first Tuesday of every month or sooner as market conditions warrant. The Guru's Top Ten list includes a combination of Blue Chip stalwarts and undervalued small caps. Among The Guru's Top Ten are: (NASDAQ: ATHM), (NASDAQ: FLYR), (NASDAQ: DVNT), (NASDAQ: VDAT), (NASDAQ: MSFT), (NASDAQ: IDTC), (NYSE: BGP), (NYSE: FDX), (NYSE: T), and (NYSE: IBM). Several recently highflying Internet stocks are among those chosen for the Guru's Bottom Ten list. "The Guru apologizes for overloading the bottom ten with Internet stocks but although the Internet obviously has tremendous growth opportunity, it is also the area with the most egregious valuations at this time." Said Howard Feder, Chairman of the Guru's selection committee. The Guru's Bottom Ten list includes: (NASDAQ: WBVN), (NASDAQ: ETYS), (NASDAQ: RHAT), (NASDAQ: SCMR), (NASDAQ: KANA), (NASDAQ: HOMS), (NASDAQ: BNBN), (NASDAQ: PCLN), (NASDAQ: ADSP), AND (NASDAQ: DELL).
The company also announced that the long awaited launch of the Guru's Hall of Shame would commence on Monday, December 13th. The Guru's Hall of Shame will be a biweekly feature highlighting Wall Street analysts or advisors who, according to the Guru, recommend stocks in which they have an obvious conflict of interest.
TheMarketGuru.com, based in New York City, provides objective, independent, customized market research. The Guru and his affiliates have over 35 years of investment experience combined. The Guru's Opinion provides clear and concise advise that is in no way influenced by outside forces.
Disclaimer: Please do not make your investment decisions based on the guru's recommendations. Trading equities can be very risky and one's suitability should be taken into account before any investment decision is made. The opinions expressed here and on themarketguru.com do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
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| To: calgal who wrote (148789) | 12/9/1999 7:31:00 AM | | From: Dorine Essey | | | |
Hi leigh,
I know what is wrong with DELL. This is NEWS that came out over and over again. They keep repeating the same old news.
We all know that MD sells 4 million shares.
Nov 29, Dec 7, 8. I know there are other dates of filings. This is nothing NEW but it drives the stock down.
Dorine
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Dell vice chairman files to sell company stock
Plus: Filings news on CNet, Infospace.com and E-Tek
By Amanda Tyler, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:35 PM ET Dec 8, 1999
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Dell Computer Vice Chairman Kevin Rollins filed to sell 350,000 shares of common stock, worth an estimated $15.8 million, according to a filing released by the Securities and Exchange commission late Tuesday.
The release of Rollins's filing comes just one day after the SEC released a Form 4 filed by Chairman Michael Dell detailing his sale of 4 million shares of the company's (DELL) common stock in mid-November. See related story.
Rollins planned to sell the stock on Dec. 3 through Goldman Sachs.
An SEC Form 144, such as Rollins', shows a filer's intent to sell shares. Actual verification of sales, if they occur, are required in later filings.
There are an estimated 2.55 billion shares of Dell outstanding. The stock closed down 1 7/8 at 43 1/2 on Wednesday.
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| To: Yamakita who wrote (148807) | 12/9/1999 7:32:00 AM | | From: JRI | | | |
Chuzz, Yamakita...
Would also love to get comments to the following:
Although I agree with the premise that many stocks, especially unproven (pure) internets, are currently overvalued in today's market, I also think we do have a (somewhat) new paradigm concerning investment valuation (re: market risk premium), and other factors..which makes comparisons of PE's, etc. to earlier, historical times (somewhat, but not fully irrelevant)
(1) Fall of communism/victory of democracy/capitalism- Although it is impossible to evaluate to what extent market(s) had already priced this in, in comparing many stocks (at least the ones I like <G>) to the Nifty 50 of the 1960's (or other periods)...there are some huge differences...In the 1960's, it was not entirely clear that a company like Xerox would be able to sell its products (effeciently, effectively) in a country like China (or India or Russia) anytime in our lifetime....therefore, with the "victory" (I use that term very lightly) of West, this has opened up entire new market(s) to many, many products/services that would have (hereinto) been limited in their growth pattern...if market(s) would have been limited to the U.S. and a then, mostly-socialist Europe.......Another factor is (that) the risk of global destruction, massive world war has been reduced significantly (not smaller conflicts since the fall of the East vs. West confict...
How disruptive would it be (to companies) selling products (if we were involved in such a war)? How would there cash flow, profit stream been affected....Clearly, this risk has been reduced (although not eliminated). Surely the market(s) had priced in that risk in the 1950's, 1960's, etc? How much is (the reduction of that risk) worth?
China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan...these are going to be huge markets for the next several decades...
Of course, the trick is to find companies that have proven (Dell) that they can effectively and effecietly expand to these huge overseas markets.....decent indication (although not perfect) that they will also do well in the future)...Look at many retailers....all things being equal, they will have a much more difficult time expanding to many foreign lands (and, as a result, their stock prices should be discounted, and probably are, appropriately)
(2) Victory of "U.S."-style Capitalism- Free(r) Trade, ROI, ROE, U.S-type accounting standards....Although there is a long ways still to go, U.S- style capitalism (for better or for worse, socially, culturally) is winning, has (essentially) won the war, and many more companies (countries) are being run on the principal(s).........One fact alone: Look how many countries now run budget surpluses(s) (with intention, as a policy goal) or, at least, try to..........This has led to efficiencies in utilization of all sorts of resources (including capital), lower tax burden for existing companies, etc........It is easier for companies (even if we consider a country like Germany) like Dell to operate under "U.S." capitalism rules there, because now you have a number of workers, management, and government that are "geared" towards the rules, which allows the company the produce more profit...I admit, this is a bit nebulous to account for, but nonetheless, significant...By all means (especially with U.S GAAP style accounting), there is still a lot of improvement need, but, at the very least, the "world" trend is much more clear than in the 70's, 60's, 50's..
"Necessity" of technology- Technology, for many companies, is no longer a separate sector of the company, it is now recognized as part of (all) companies competitive advantage....or survival...It is no longer a question of should we?....rather, how quickly can we implement.....For those companies that produce technology products for which there is currently no alternative (a better example than Dell would be a company like EMC or Cisco, IMO)...I would argue that they have a much less cyclical business than a company like Coke...How much is it worth (premium) to own a company that makes essential products that companies MUST buy for the next many years vs. preferances (Coke)?/
(4) The internet- The internet HAS changed everything. It will be growing at an extroadinary rate for many years to come....regardless if GDP grows at 1%, 3%, or 5% in Indonesia or the U.S...the internet IS going to be built...companies, countries ARE going to have to play by ITS rules....and........the "buildout" of the internet (especially internationally)..is going to go on for some years to come...Many U.S. companies are the clear leader here...with no alternative(s) in sight...When was the last time that a sector (and individual companies) had such a clear and overwhelming growth path ahead (relatively, but certainly not entirely) without risk? What is that worth?
As comparison, What was (is) more certain?: That Cisco's routers are going to be used (on a massive scale) around the world in the next 10 yrs. OR that, in the 1960's, Coca-Cola would be able to convince more people around the world to buy their product(s) in the 1970's, 1980's.........I can't go back in time, but I think that Cisco is a sure(r) thing....
(5) Deregulation of U.S. financial markets (I'm thinking here of broker commission, etc), availability of information- Has decreased some risk(s), cost hurdles for the small investor-, although by no means eliminated..
(6) Necessity of individuals to save for their own retirement...not a valuation factor, but a liquidity issue....I guess one could argue (valuation), that the risk premium for equities should be further reduced, because, since the burden of retirement saving falls on the individual (now in U.S, soon in the rest of the world)...stocks are less risky, because individuals will HAVE to own a certain % going forward to allow themselves a shot at a decent retirement..there are few other (investment) vehicles that can match stock(s) consistent performance over time...So, there is going to be (already is)..some "permanent" demand....
So, my investment strategy has been to capitalize on these, to me, apparent factors....to find those companies that (1) Are building out the internet (as Chuzz mentioned) (2) Have proven they can expand, grow effectively, efficiently internationally (3) Are "jiggy" with cutting-edge U.S. capitalism (management techniques)..usually meaning they are U.S. companies...
To me, it is entirely logical that tech stocks have been the big growers of the last few years, that our market(s) have narrowed (other stocks....companies, in other industries have not grown near as much as the builders of the internet have/will), and that tech stocks, by extention, make up a larger and larger % of total net capitalization of stocks (in general)...this can not, will not go on forever, but I still think we are in a "sweet spot"...due to the underuse of technology in many parts of the world (they WILL catch up), internet in the rest of world...there is still a lot of growth left (for those companies that can seize the day)......the key, I think, we'll be to find (and keep) those companies (stocks) that fulfill the criteria I have listed above....and, additionally, have a proven track record of profitability, and consistent profit growth.....WHILE also, staying reasonably priced....although for the real premium companies of the group (Cisco, EMC, etc)...I think there valuations (built-in premiums) can stay excessive for quite a while...
That is, until they miss a quarter, or their technology become obsolete <G> |
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| To: Yamakita who wrote (148807) | 12/9/1999 7:32:00 AM | | From: Sig | | | |
Wow: Thats a great post from Kelly
He could be useful around here if we count break him loosee
from the Q thread.
Here is another one supports my own idea on how
one can survive a downturn- look for a stock that can grow out of the situation.
Lucius,
My feeling is that it is not diversification of one's portfolio that will protect against permanent drops of this magnitude, but rather, concentration in Gorilla stocks, i.e. ones which, by definition, will not endure such a decline for very long.
Lest we forget, "Diversifcation is a hedge against ignorance." WB
Kelly
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| To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (148785) | 12/9/1999 7:43:00 AM | | From: jttmab | | | |
Chuzz,
I think there is an important take home lesson to be learned from this kind of analysis.
No doubt. I'm just not sure what it is? Possibilities include.
1. Hot growth stocks, those that survive eventually return to averages; overinflated stocks underperform the market looking forward.
2. Don't bother investing in individual equitities in the long run. Buy the index funds. There is a natural rotation of hot growth stocks into the index funds.
3. Invest only, short term to medium term, in hot growth stocks or run them until they aren't hot anymore.
4. Momentum trading is the answer.
5. Take your profits. Get a hunting rifle, load up on ammunition; take survival training and go off into the hills of Montana never to be seen again.
BTW, the average P/E of the NAZ last Friday was 175 (ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE!).
jttmab |
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| To: JRI who wrote (148812) | 12/9/1999 8:00:00 AM | | From: Dorine Essey | | | |
Hi,
Here is some GOOD news that will help DELL today. I did not post the total report.
Dorine
12/09 05:17 Fletcher and Fletcher and Faraday Announces Investment Opinion
On International Brands Inc.'s worldbestbuy.com
NEW YORK, Dec. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Fletcher and Faraday, a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, CRD number 29769: Fletcher and Faraday (Broker Dealer - Member NASD) Announces Additional Information. -- International Brands (OTC Bulletin Board: INBR).
We reiterate a speculative buy recommendation on worldbestbuy.com which is owned and operated by International Brands Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: INBR) based upon several recent developments at INBR.
We are adding to our buy list the following stocks:
Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Home Depo (NYSE: HD), Healtheon WebMD (Nasdaq: HLTH), Novell (Nasdaq: NOVL), AutoWeb.com (Nasdaq: AWEB), TicketMaster (Nasdaq: TMCS), Vertical Net (Nasdaq: VERT), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HWP), Compaq (NYSE: CPQ), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), At Home (Nasdaq: ATHM), Doubleclick (Nasdaq: DCLK), United Parcel (NYSE: UPS).
Fletcher and Faraday is a Broker Dealer and member of the NASD and SIPC. |
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| To: JRI who wrote (148812) | 12/9/1999 8:06:00 AM | | From: Lee | | | |
Hi John,..Re:.I also think we do have a (somewhat) new paradigm concerning investment valuation (re: market risk premium),
John, that was an interesting post and you made some valid points. Alan dedicated a whole speech to risk back in October. Interesting read considering. <g>
bog.frb.fed.us
There can be little doubt that the dramatic improvements in information technology in recent years have altered our approach to risk. Some analysts perceive that information technology has permanently lowered equity premiums and, hence, permanently raised the prices of the collateral that underlies all financial assets.
The reason, of course, is that information is critical to the evaluation of risk. The less that is known about the current state of a market or a venture, the less the ability to project future outcomes and, hence, the more those potential outcomes will be discounted.
The rise in the availability of real-time information has reduced the uncertainties and thereby lowered the variances that we employ to guide portfolio decisions. At least part of the observed fall in equity premiums in our economy and others over the past five years does not appear to be the result of ephemeral changes in perceptions. It is presumably the result of a permanent technology-driven increase in information availability, which by definition reduces uncertainty and therefore risk premiums. This decline is most evident in equity risk premiums. It is less clear in the corporate bond market, where relative supplies of corporate and Treasury bonds and other factors we cannot easily identify have outweighed the effects of more readily available information about borrowers.
Guess we're not the only ones grappling with valuation issues these days. LOL!
Cheers,
Lee |
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| To: Venkie who wrote (148799) | 12/9/1999 8:54:00 AM | | From: Ex-INTCfan | | | |
Venkie, about the only encouraging thing about this market is the negative sentiment. As you mention, "most folks believe the techs are ready to correct." They also have cash, as you allude to. But you are right about the coming correction, and I really think Chuzz's analogy about the freight train sums up what will happen soon.
The thread needs to know that I feel I am PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE for the continuation of this rally, because I have refused to go 100% long. As proven by history, as soon as I take my remaining cash (15% or so) and place a long bet with it, the market will tank.
INTCfan |
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