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   Technology StocksTexas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait?


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From: tree_toe_bandito10/16/2008 3:55:25 AM
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The price of TXN stock has doubled since TI Defense was sold to Raytheon. This is equivalent to a rate of increase of 6% a year. Way to go Engibous.

TXN stock has dropped 55% from it's peak in mid 2007, and is now at a 5 year low.


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From: tree_toe_bandito10/16/2008 4:34:09 AM
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More ruminations: TXN stock has fallen about $20 billion of which about 80% was owned by institutions and mutual funds. I'm not sure if TI's 401K fund is included in that total. The stock that TI holds in it's retirement fund has always been sort of mystical, magical, if you know what I mean. Do any of you guys know how TI stock in the retirement fund works? Is it real or just a book entry?

TI management seems to have lost 10's of millions of dollars also, even though most of them have been exercising and selling for some time now.

Conclusion: Long term investing is completely repudiated.

For guys like us who are on the outside, there is no way of knowing why the stock is falling. Mutual fund redemptions? Actual knowledge by the 80% of stockholders who are big investors? What? We don't know.

That is why we can't rely on fundamentals to invest in this stock. We don't have timely fundamental data. We have to analyze the chart patterns. Price tells us what Mr. Market is doing. We can at least take positions based on that.

The momentum is still down, according to the charts. TI stock is not a place to be long right now.

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From: tree_toe_bandito10/16/2008 8:34:26 PM
   of 6170
 
TI raises the quarterly dividend by a penny from 10¢ to 11¢.

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To: tree_toe_bandito who wrote (6133)10/20/2008 9:18:19 PM
From: tree_toe_bandito
   of 6170
 
As I pointed out on October 8, TXN's chart closely paralleled the chart of GE. I pointed out that GE had real problems, and wondered what the chart similarity meant for TXN. Did it mean that TXN had serious problems like GE, only they hadn't surfaced yet?

The problems surfaced today. TXN missed earnings, announced the planned sale of part of it's cell phone business at a loss, and gave a grim (IMHO) forecast about the cell phone business going forward.

It seems obvious to me, that these problems were known by large holders of the stock before this information became general knowledge today. I make this assertion based on the similarity of the TXN and GE charts. I have noticed in the past that TXN stock seems to fall while the news is good (or at least not bad) and only when the bottom is reached does the bad news come out. In this case, I think the bad news will only drive the stock lower, but we shall have to see.

In the meantime, continue to look at the charts for the real indication on what is going on behind the scenes.

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From: tree_toe_bandito10/25/2008 8:09:08 PM
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We are beyond the financial crisis. We have entered the FOOb crisis. FOOb = Fear Of Obama. I expect at least one more big avalanche downfall. Will it be the last? I don't know.

I heard Barney Frank wants to cut Defense by 25%, and a fair assessment of Obama's spending is around $4.3 trillion. No way to recoup that by checking the air in your tires, closing loopholes, cutting defense spending, windfall profits tax, increase in capital gains, and taxing the top 3% who already pay 30% of the income tax. I doubt if importing aspirin from Mexico will help much either.

On top of that, no offshore drilling, so that oil prices will rise and choke off any economic rally.

I hear that there is a bill being considered in Congress to nationalize our 401(k)s. The government takes our money, spends it the way they want to, and gives us a guaranteed interest payment, like an annuity. Same guarantee they give Social Security.

Best investments = canned goods, guns, and aluminum foil. Not stocks. At least not yet, unless they start printing stock certificates on toilet paper.

Aluminum foil because Obama's carbon tax will add $100 billion in costs to energy usage, and aluminum is energy intensive.

The charts aren't showing any attempt at a bottom by TXN. In fact after looking at quite a few charts I am saying that the chance of another waterfall decline next week is high. Watch the futures early Monday. Could be a really black Monday, but I hope not. If TXN goes below the 2003 low, there is NO support.

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To: tree_toe_bandito who wrote (6147)10/25/2008 9:31:59 PM
From: Woody_Nickels
   of 6170
 
Not just Aluminum foil, but TP!
Always in short supply.

The Fed. Gov't has too many c(r)ooks in the soup.
And they forget/ignore who they represent/serve.
Some are criminals disguised as legislators.
Frank, Dodd, and some others should be in jail
with the bankers and mortgage vendors that facili-
tated this mess.

Kusinich was on some business show today saying
"We have to keep people in their homes!"
If I had known that, I'd have bought a bigger one
than I could afford, like the dumbasses he wants
to bail out. Let the dumbasses rent my little
house so I can get a bigger one. But now
I can't qualify for a second mortgage because my
job was outsourced to India, and I work in a
friggin' warehouse for 1/2 pay.

BTW, TXN is a bargain at these levels, IMHO.

Oh, and Obama has no record to run on, or counter.
I don't like his plans to make gov't bigger. That
has never been a good idea in the past. Politicians
already broke Soc. Sec. and Medicare/Aid, and now
they want my 401K and universal healthcare? God
help us.
I don't want to work for the gov't. The Post Office
turned me down because I didn't fit their PC profile.
I applied to teach school, because they were begging
for science teachers, but again "No!" Now they want
my 401K to play with? Hell NO! It's all I have left,
and it's not much really. Should I cut back on my
401K contributions?

Woody

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To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (6148)10/26/2008 12:12:23 AM
From: tree_toe_bandito
   of 6170
 
What's TP?

I really don't think that TXN is a good investment now. The charts show it is still falling. It's dangerous to catch a falling knife.

Also, I have read an unconfirmed report that TXN is not going to be giving pay raises at review time in 2009. I think that would be a big negative for the stock price. Still, it's just a rumor at this point.

Fear has taken hold. We have to wait to see where the bottom is.

As far as 401(k)s go, I don't know what to say. My view is to keep contributing until the handwriting is on the wall. Americans will be outraged if they try to steal our 401(k)s. And it would really be a one time deal. They would get the money, but no one would contribute any more.

Hey! It's still possible McCain will win, and we will have a known quantity to deal with.

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To: tree_toe_bandito who wrote (6149)10/26/2008 11:12:33 AM
From: Woody_Nickels
1 Recommendation   of 6170
 
TP = toilet paper

They already pooled individual's Soc. Sec. accounts, when
I was a boy. At one time everyone had their own account.
And you see how well they managed the money... Soc. Sec.
will be BK within 10-12 yrs.

Now they want to do the same with 401Ks? 401Ks are NOT
even a government program. The ONLY benefit to 401Ks is
that taxes are deferred on the money until you retire.
Does that give the gov't the right to confiscate 401K
accounts? Not only is it nonsense, it's downright SCARY.

I'll probably continue to save for retirement, but I can
understand there is NO INCENTIVE for young people to save
AT ALL. Every time the gov't needs money they look around
to see where there is a large amount in some accounts
and they confiscate it, then mismanage it. Why don't they
nationalize the oil companies? They have a lot of money.

Woody

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To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (6150)10/26/2008 12:55:24 PM
From: tree_toe_bandito
   of 6170
 
<<Every time the gov't needs money they look around
to see where there is a large amount in some accounts
and they confiscate it>>

That's a special case of tree_toe's First Law, which says that "someone" will figure out how to steal the pile. It doesn't have to be the government, could be the company you work for.

If the government tries to take over 401(k)s, people will stop contributing. That is probably the only deterrent we have. Of course if people stop contributing, they will lose a deduction on their income tax, so the government still wins. If people withdraw from a 401(k), they will pay income tax, and if before 59 1/2 a 10% penalty. That's win, win, win for the government.

I think that there is extreme danger that TXN, indeed, the market as a whole, will have another waterfall decline. Watch the foreign markets. The trading day starts in Asia, and moves through Europe to the US. If those markets are getting clobbered, we usually get clobbered too.

TXN could test it's 2003 low around 13. At least the danger of that is so great that I am not buying TXN at this juncture. If TXN drops to 13, that's another 20% decline on top of the previous disaster.

This is shaping up as a bad recession. Get a book on the Great Depression. Only the people who were in the market went from solvent to destitute in Oct. 1929. It took a couple of years to wipe out the rest. We are in the "wipe out the rest" phase of this one. It looks like in the present case, that the government is going to be doing a lot of the wiping out. There may be no place to hide. Spend it while you got it.

I think it is TXN's fate to merge with or be acquired by another company. If so, the folks who bought TXN between 99 and 20 aren't going to get their money back. This stock is a "strong sell" until proven otherwise.

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To: tree_toe_bandito who wrote (6151)6/8/2009 8:06:22 PM
From: Sr K
   of 6170
 
>>I think it is TXN's fate to merge with or be acquired by another company. If so, the folks who bought TXN between 99 and 20 aren't going to get their money back. This stock is a "strong sell" until proven otherwise.<<

TXN upped guidance AH and rose ~$1.00 to ~20.77

The close Friday 10/24/06 was 16.95.

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