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   Technology StocksCMGI, eBAY, AMZN, AOL - When will the pain end?


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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (17)6/15/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: paulmcg0
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One trap that I think a lot of people will fall into is the bogus belief about averaging down, i.e., buying more at the lower price, in the belief that the stock will eventually recover. It's just a way of losing more money -- people should know the correct approach is to cut their losses and get out.

If you look at stocks that collapse, you often see an interesting pattern. There might be times when the price will go back up a little, and people will say, "See, I told you it would come back", but the trend is still down for the stock. (It's not a straight down, more like a roller coaster, going down a hill, then up a smaller hill, then down again.) What happens to a lot of collapsing stocks is that they eventually hit a point where they stabilize, and just make small movements around the stable point for long periods of time. The real difficulty is predicting how low that stable point is, and not buying a stock because it seems like a bargain, although it is still declining in value.

As far as the Internet stocks though, it's like watching limbo dancers -- how low can they go?

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To: paulmcg0 who wrote (27)6/15/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Michael Young
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The scary part is that a lot of these stocks are still way UP for the year. Suggests that a true "blood in the streets" bottom isn't yet near.

MIKE

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To: paulmcg0 who wrote (11)6/15/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: Webfoot
   of 47
 
Paul -
I'm not holding heavy in net stocks right now, in fact I'm short a couple, but I will be buying as I see signs of the turn. Nothing new in your comments that the market is a virtual reality -- the market is an emotional thing, and always has been.

Let's back way away from all the short term Interest rate / bond market gobblity gook, to once again realize that fundamentally, there is so much money in the markets as the Boomers gear up for retirement and all of us re-invest our past winnings from this sustained bull market, that the growth in the stock market is not going to come to a screeching halt overnight. The huge amounts of money in the markets won't change much for several years...until Boomers start withdrawing en masse to pay for their retirements.

Unlike the earlier part of the century, these days, individuals are responsible for their own retirement portfolios. The combination of lots of choice, easy access (online trading) and the greed fueled temptation to gamble that has hooked many on placing part of their portfolio into high volatility stocks is an entirely different scenario from the 20's.

The net sector has cooled this month - as it did last Sept, but will heat up again when the momentum turns. The fact that we've seen such dramatic correction proves your point - that the greater fool theory at some point kicks in...but I submit that the greater greed theory will just as assuredly reverse it as more record breaking topline growth numbers are released in July and subsequent quarters. I'm in the web site/software business and I see every day how the New web Economy is dramatically changing how companies do business - for the better. The solid businesses and major brands in this sector are not going to evaporate.

I called attention to the recent Texas study because it is one more well respected source that shows that the rapid growth of the internet industry sector is absolutely without precedent. If that does not interest you as you contemplate if/when/how you might invest in this sector, well, that's OK. Like most others on this site, I attempt to contribute accredited information mixed with how I interpret and intend to act on that information.

If you indeed, as you say, have no interest in owning these stocks, then you are visiting this site for other reasons. Share them with us and we may all learn something new.

Webfoot

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To: Webfoot who wrote (29)6/16/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: Michael Young
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I'm really starting to think that CMGI could be the absolute net stock disaster that wipes out a lot of individual investors. I'm talking huge downside potential from here.

The funds are selling the DOT and buying the SOX.

MIKE

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To: Michael Young who wrote (30)6/23/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: BGR
   of 47
 
Wow, this thread sure had a short life span. <VBG>

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To: BGR who wrote (31)6/23/1999 1:30:00 AM
From: RJL
   of 47
 
Give it time BGR...within a week or so, the 'pain' will start again. :)

Rich

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To: RJL who wrote (32)6/23/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: BGR
   of 47
 
Can I trust you on that Richard?

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To: BGR who wrote (33)6/23/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: RJL
   of 47
 
"Can I trust you on that Richard?"

ROFL. If you're expecting a guarantee, you won't get it. I personally believe that the majority of these stocks will really feel the pain quite shortly. When this POS market breaks, they'll fall the hardest. Rightly so for the most part...(with a few exceptions).

Then again, I don't want to sound like the old Luc...calling for a crash every week.

Cheers,

Rich

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To: RJL who wrote (34)6/23/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: BGR
   of 47
 
You underestimate Luc, he calls for a crash every hour ...

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To: RJL who wrote (34)6/23/1999 1:45:00 PM
From: paulmcg0
   of 47
 
"I personally believe that the majority of these stocks will really feel the pain quite shortly." Most of the crazed speculators, sorry, make that average investors, don't seem to have paid attention to the fact that a lot of these stocks are already down 40-50% or more from their earlier highs, yet they still hold them, convinced that their Internet stocks will come back stronger than ever. Call it an intelligence test that they have failed...

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