| To: William T. Katz who wrote (152) | 4/1/2002 11:58:50 PM | | From: RobertHChaney | | | | The customer service issues were based on my own personal experience with the only problem I ever sought their help on, & ones I saw posted on the discussion board on their website. Where, a sizeable number of people had evidently encountered the same basic problem as I did, and many of them were displeased with their attempts to get it fixed in a timely fashion.
Basically, Audible only allows you to connect only a limited # on portable devices (I believe 3) to your PC for downloads, because of the deals they made with copyright owners. This sounds like a workable restriction, but it can be a real problem from a practical standpoint. If your handheld has to be reset several times because of hardware or software problems, or it gets stolen after a few resets, the software will prohibit you from setting-up a portable again. Then, your only recourse is to contact Audible, tell them your sad story, and hope they will make a revision to your control settings on their server, so you can use your portable again. My own experience with their Customer Support was bad, as they did not answer my e-mails. Finally, out of frustration, I surfed their discussion board and eventually found where some company rep was periodically looking at serious problem posts and solving their problem. And, that is how I finally got mine resolved. But, it was a bad experience IMO. And, I saw many posts indicating others had also suffered this poorly designed restriction, and had problems with Customer Service as well.
A few months later, I checked the Audible website, and I believe they had removed the discussion board, and the Customer Service phone #. And, I seem to recall that they had some kind of notice that they would not be able to promptly return Customer Service request e-mails. Not exactly my idea of how to run a customer oriented company. But, this preceded their recent financing, so may have been the result of their overhead cutbacks.
I just now logged on to the site and was pleased to see that the Help Center now looks fairly friendly. And, the phone # & e-mail contact issues seem to have been resolved. So, maybe, they have made a new commitment to good Customer Service. I would be curious to hear about some recent User experiences with their Customer Service dept.
Other than this Customer Service problem, my experience using Audible on my PC, IPAQ and my new OTIS have been fantastic. But, they need to match that the product with their Customer Service, if they want to really build a successful company.
Also, thanks for the updated financial. Very helpful.
Robert |
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| To: RobertHChaney who wrote (153) | 4/2/2002 12:31:04 AM | | From: William T. Katz | | | | Robert,
I also have had problems with customer service, mostly due to their trying to remove direct phone # contacts in favor of e-mail. I sent my comments to mgmt on how I think they could be more user friendly, but no idea whether they adopt my suggestions. They are trying to manage the conflicting problems of serving their customers, managing the burn rate, and not making it easy for customers to walk out. I've got strong feelings that the latter issue has to be handled with more direct lines of communication than they currently employ.
Do take a look at their just released annual report. I've got some other things to do, but will digest it and revise my financial model within a month (hopefully). Oddly, they directly address possible complications for being acquired due to MSFT deal. Wonder if it's already come up. They also say they have 6 patents (+ 5 in pipe) while my scan of USPTO shows 7 patents awarded. Guess we have at least 4 more patents coming out, and that should post some barrier for a portal trying to be a competitor.
Regards,
Bill |
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| To: RobertHChaney who wrote (153) | 4/3/2002 1:25:05 PM | | From: William T. Katz | | | | I've put a link to the annual report (10K) at cognitrol.com (www.ADBL.org). That's a free way to get it, since EdgarOnline charges for accessing new filings.
I've also posted some observations on new(?) disclosures from the 10K (see Things to Analyze link under 10K link). IMHO I think these are important to know if you are investing in ADBL. |
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| To: Roger W. Bowen who wrote (158) | 11/4/2003 1:59:35 PM | | From: ms.smartest.person | | | | ADBL was recommended on 10/29/03 by one Market Digest Online. Here is some of the commentary:
10/29/2003 AUDIBLE.COM: (ADBL) $2.87Down $.11 and traded on the OTC Bulletin Board.... This stock is traded on the OTC Bulletin Board. Back before the bubble burst, ADBL traded as high as $25.00. If you're not a member of Audible.com, you need to join. The stock probably has a pretty good chance of trading substantially higher. I've been a member of Audible for over three years. You can buy top selling books at the site and download the books on to an MP3 player to listen to in you automobile, stereo system or MP3 player. On long trips, it's a great way to make the time fly by much faster. I've listened to books such as Seabiscuit, Bridget Jone's Diary, A Walk in the Woods, Dreamcatcher, The Wild Blue, The Good German, The Hobbitt, Hughes, Band of Brothers, Ghost Soldiers, The Orchid Thief, A Painted House and Into Thin Air. All in all over the last three years I've listened to several dozen books. I'm not a big reader so these are not books I would have otherwise read. This list is literally endless as to what you can listen to - history, Best Sellers, Ophra's Picks, Best Sellers (fiction, nonfiction, business, self development, history, religious, arts, entertainment). The list is literally endless. Go to the site and check Audible.com out. If you're interested in joining, let me know and I'll give you my username because I get a free book for every new subscriber I refer to Audible. It's a good deal too. You get two books each month along with a free MP3 player for $19.95 per month. The books retail for between $15 and $18 each so Audible members get a nice discount on the books.
I've known about the company for a long time, but didn't even give it a second thought as it related to the stock - until today when I was running a stock scan and noticed the stock is near its 52-week high. Technically speaking, Audible has just broken out of a "cup-with-handle" chart formation on its 5-year chart. The chart looks excellent and the stock is likely headed to the $5.00 level in the near-term. The company recently announced a deal with Apple's iTuner Music Store. All of Audible's audiobooks and other spoken word programs are now available for download exclusively from Apple's iTunesr Music Store. Through iTunes, Macr and Windows customers can preview and download audio editions of best- selling books, magazines, radio programs and original shows, manage audio content alongside their music collection, and take their entire audio library with them for listening anywhere with the market-leading iPod(TM) digital music player. "With the addition of Audible's exclusive content to iTunes, now Mac and Windows customers can download audiobooks and music from one integrated online music store," said Philip Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing. "The unbeatable combination of the iTunes digital jukebox software, iTunes Music Store, and iPod digital music player allows users to seamlessly buy, manage and transfer their entire collection of audiobooks onto their iPod for listening anywhere."
"As our customers can attest, audiobooks -- and spoken word programming in general -- can change peoples' lives for the better," said Donald Katz, chairman and CEO, Audible, Inc. "Audible's award-winning information and entertainment audio deserves to be marketed in an integrated way alongside music. With this iTunes Music Store announcement today, we have reached an important strategic milestone for our company." Audible.com is the exclusive provider of spoken word audio to the iTunes Music Store and is the leading provider of digitally delivered spoken word audio. More than 5,000 spoken word audio titles from Audible can now be purchased from the iTunes Music Store, including content ranging from new audiobook bestsellers like "Bleachers" by John Grisham and "The Teeth of the Tiger" by Tom Clancy to classics like "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn" by Mark Twain and the iTunes exclusive science fiction audiobook, "Whipping Mek," an original story by Brian Herbert and bestselling novelist Kevin J. Anderson that bridges the Legends of Dune trilogy novels "The Butlerian Jihad" and "The Machine Crusade." The Audible collection also includes speeches, lectures, language lessons, audio editions of periodicals such as Forbes and the Scientific American, as well as the best of public radio programs such as Fresh Air, Car Talk and This American Life. Newly released audiobooks and other new spoken audio content will be added to the iTunes Music Store every week. All Audible content available from the iTunes Music Store can be burned onto an unlimited number of CDs for personal use, listened to on an unlimited number of iPods, and played on up to three Macintoshr or Windows PC computers. Apple's new 40GB iPod can hold over 800 full-length audiobooks from Audible or up to 10,000 CD-quality songs in a stunning enclosure that is lighter and thinner than two CDs.
Audible (www.audible.com) is the Internet's largest, most diverse provider of premium spoken audio services for content download and playback on personal computers, CD or AudibleReady computer-based mobile devices. Audible has more than 34,000 hours of audio programs and 135 content partners that include leading audiobook publishers, broadcasters, entertainers, magazine and newspaper publishers and business information providers. Audible.com is Amazon.com's (www.amazon.com) exclusive provider of spoken word products for downloading or streaming via the Web. Additionally, the Company is strategically aligned with Random House, Inc., to pioneer the first-ever imprint to produce spoken word content specifically suited for digital distribution, Random House Audible. Among the Company's key business partners are Apple, Casio Inc., Handspring, Hewlett-Packard Company, Microsoft Corporation, Palm, Inc., Royal Philips Electronics, RealNetworks, Inc., Sony Electronics, Texas Instruments and VoiceAge Corp.
BOTTOM LINE: The chart looks excellent. Our near-term price objective is $5.00 per share.
10/30/2003 AUDIBLE.COM: (ADBL) $2.92 Up $.05 and traded on the OTC Bulletin Board... Slow and easy...we'll take every penny. First recommended on Wednesday at $2.87 per share, the company sells audio books at their web site - Audible.com. The books are downloaded to MP3 players or burned to CD's.
10/31/2003 AUDIBLE.COM: (ADBL) $3.10 Up $.18 and traded on the OTC Bulletin Board....
Our newest Whisper Stock recommendation is now up 22% since Wednesday. Volume is already running twice the norm. Our near-term price objective is $5.00 per share....
Our near-term price objective remains $5.00 per share. First recommended on Wednesday of this week at $2.87 per share, we're looking for at least a near-term double. Thursday's close was a new 52-week high on more than twice its average daily volume. Once again, here's our original recommendation from Wednesday.....
11/03/2003 AUDIBLE.COM: (ADBL) $3.65 Up $.55 and traded on the OTC Bulletin Board.... Our near-term price objective remains $5.00 per share. First recommended on Wednesday of last week at $2.87 per share, we're looking for at least a near-term double. Friday's close was a new 52-week high on 3.5 times its average daily volume. Once again, here's our original recommendation from Wednesday..... |
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| To: William T. Katz who wrote (157) | 6/3/2004 12:03:02 PM | | From: RRICH4 | | | | ADBL in USA Today usatoday.com
More on ADBL
Poised For Success
6/3/04 11:16 AM EDT
Bullish ADBL
Update AMZN NFLX IACI
Audible has positive operating earnings, is free-cash flow positive, and has no debt.
However, consumers can be flaky, and customer acquisition costs could rise.
The Numbers
Audible (ADBL:OTC.BB) had approximately 344,000 subscribers as of last quarter. They pay $14 per month for a subscription to a periodical and one book or $19 for a periodical and two books. Additional items can be purchased at a la carte prices. The most recent data on revenue per average customer was $20 per month.
Audible has positive GAAP operating earnings and is now free-cash-flow positive. The company considers itself fully funded with about $10 million of cash and no debt. There is only one published model for the company (by ThinkEquity Partners), and it estimates GAAP EPS of 14 cents on $42 million of revenues with 22% operating margins.
The strength of Audible's model is it is basically a software model. Cost of goods sold is primarily the publishers' royalties, which are fairly stable at 20-25%. The analyst who first mentioned the company to me estimates the leverage in this model really kicks in once Audible reaches the 500,000 to 600,000 subscribers mark. Then Audible should achieve 30% net operating margins (after taking into account customer acquisition costs).
On revenue of $60 million, Audible would have EPS of 20 to 25 cents. That's not bad for a company trading at $4 and growing 100% per year. These estimates do not assume much, if any, revenue from the educational market, which I view as the true killer market for Audible.
The Intangibles
Aside from Audible's really neat service, the solid financial outlook, and the breadth of market opportunities, what brings it all together is the lack of existing competition. The exclusive arrangements with the various publishers and the backing of outfits such as Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) (which owns 1.34 million shares), Bertelsmann (1.9 million shares), and Random House (2.06 million shares) have given Audible a nearly insurmountable head-start over any future competition. Audible has 166 different content contributors and was adding approximately 500 hours of new content per week as of last quarter.
There are also talks of potential buyouts. Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq) has been rumored to have started a dialogue with Audible, and the company would seem to be a very good fit with InterActiveCorp (IACI:Nasdaq). Amazon could also decide to "round up" its current investment.
Lastly, Audible is pretty much unknown right now on the Street, in part, because of its low stock price. To address this issue, the company has proposed a reverse stock split, which would be immediately followed by a listing on the Nasdaq. There is talk that at least Piper Jaffray would then pick up coverage.
The Risks
Audible naturally carries many of the risks that small companies do. Consumers are flaky creatures. Customer acquisition costs have been volatile, and one must figure that to reach critical mass, at some point the company will probably have to dive into mainstream costly advertising. But, for the time being, Audible looks to me like a very interesting bet. |
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| To: RRICH4 who wrote (160) | 9/28/2004 1:29:37 PM | | From: DaveMG | | | | it's amazing that there's no real discussion going on here. This is one of the best stories I've seen in a long time...Looks like a 2 bil dollar company to me easy..2 million customers at15$/month, 30% margins is 100 mil in profits..They're giving away free cheese
Dave |
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| To: DaveMG who wrote (161) | 11/5/2004 10:47:10 PM | | From: William T. Katz | | | | | There's lots of discussion going on, just not at this particular board. I only occasionally check up on this forum. Many of the serious investors are over at ADBL.org where you'll find people who've tracked this company since its public debut. You are right, though. It's a great story. |
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