| To: blue_lotus who wrote (18) | 4/6/1999 9:05:00 PM | | From: John Stichnoth | | | |
No idea whether this was posted to the newbies board--Good article on the state of things, with lots of references to Q, 3G and Wireless Knowledge.
WWW Unplugged
by Amara D. Angelica
A few years ago, naming a magazine Wired was hip. But as this century comes to a
close, a really hip magazine would call itself Unwired.
Internet access changed the face of PC industry by delivering everything from
news to products and services to home and office desktops. Now Inter net access
is the driving force for a new breed of cell phones and PDAs.
The number of cell phone subscribers worldwide is expected to reach nearly 500
million by 2002, up from 194 million in 1997, according to International Data
Corporation. Telephone carriers and handset makers are jousting for their piece of
the pie, and Internet access is their weapon of choice.
Access now is mainly limited to pagers displaying low-bandwidth information,
such as stock quotes and e-mail, usually with a 160-character maximum for
messages.
That is changing as old foes set aside their squabbles over standards and
software makers align with manufacturers.
Microsoft and Qualcomm, for example, have teamed up to create Wireless
Knowledgeto deliver information to Microsoft Outlook and Microsoft Exchange
users (but unfortunately not for Qualcomm's popular Eudora e-mail software).
The company's first service offering, Revolv, will provide mobile professionals
secure access to Microsoft Exchange servers. Future services will support Lotus
Notes, according to Wireless Knowledge Vice President of Marketing Dave
Whelan.
Revolv will give users flexibility in using different wireless or mobile equipment,
such as Windows CE devices, palm-size PCs, browser-equipped phones, pagers,
Web access terminals, PDAs and laptop computers running Windows CE,
Windows 95, Windows 98 or Windows NT operating systems.
"Mobile professionals will be able to put ‘dead time' to good use," according to
"Andrew Seybold's Outlook," a mobile computing newsletter.
Revolv will be accessible over digital wireless wide area networks based on GSM,
CDPD, CDMA and other digital transmission standards. It will be available later
this year in the Bay Area from GTE Wireless, Sprint PCS, US West and AirTouch
Communications.
Third-generation cell phones
At the recent CeBIT show in Hannover, Germany, many manufacturers announced
3G phones—due out next year or 2001—and a variety of strategic alliances.
The three largest cell-phone makers, Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola, formed a joint
venture called Symbian with handheld computer maker Psion. Symbian's aim is to
create a globally accepted platform for hardware manufacturers based on Psion's
EPOC palmtop operating system. EPOC is a direct competitor to Windows CE.
The Ericsson R380 combines the convenience
of a cell phone with the data features of a PDA
Sun Microsystems sweetened the deal by announcing that Java technology will
be built into the Symbian platform. Sun also announced a deal with Japanese
carrier NTT Docomo to deploy Java, Jini and JavaCard technologies in NTT's
I-mode digital cellular phone next year.
The I-phone allows consumers in Japan to browse the Web, participate in
e-commerce and check e-mail. Java will allow for more sophisticated applications,
such as enhanced security and game play, while Jini will let cell phones access
other devices on the network, such as pagers and PCs.
Microsoft is also developing new 3G cell phone technology using "microbrowser"
software, a reference design that will be licensed to cell phone manufacturers and
software developers. The software will fit in a 100KB ROM, adding Web browser
capability to cell phones.
British Telecomm said it will develop new Internet, intranet and corporate data
services for mobile customers, using Microsoft's microbrowser in 3G handsets.
Nokia plans to include a microbrowser in its cell phones. Its model 7110, due out
by June, will let users access news, stocks and other information broadcast via the
Internet. Nokia will be one of the first manufacturers to use the new Wireless
Access Protocol (WAP) due out this summer. WAP adapts Internet standards
such as HTML and HTTP to the constraints of the wireless environment.
WAP uses XML and binary transmission instead of ASCII text for greater
compression of data. It is optimized for long latency, low to medium bandwidth
and intermittent coverage. It also makes optimum use of small screens and allows
easy one-handed navigation without a full keyboard. CNN will provide headlines
in the WAP format to Nokia 7110 phones and other WAP-enabled devices.
Global standards
But all of this fancy technology will be of limited use if it doesn't allow global
roaming. There are several competing standards for 3G digital phones. The big
three are:
Qualcomm's CDMA2000, which upgrades CDMA (code-division multiple
access) phones to work with the Internet.
Ericsson-backed WCDMA, which upgrades GSM phones, used by half of
the world's wireless customers.
UWC-136 (W/TDMA), which upgrades TDMA (time-division multiple
access) phones, backed by the Universal Wireless Communications
Consortium, which represents AT&T Wireless and other large operators in
Latin America, Canada, East Asia and Eastern Europe.
Ericsson recently agreed to purchase Qualcomm's CDMA technology, which may
eliminate one of the barriers to setting a standard. However, IDC wireless analyst
Iain Gillott isn't impressed. "These are two companies who agreed to disagree.
Nobody knows what the standard is. Everything is on hold."
Gillott pointed out that the International Telecommunications Union, which has 11
competing proposals, "will not decide on a final 3G wireless phone standard until
November, and it will take a year after that for companies to actually ship
products."
Packet-switched radio
While the 3G players are sorting it all out, what's available to mobile professionals
to access the Internet? With current cell phones, we're stuck with 19.2Kbps, using
the Cellular Digital Packet Data standard, or 9.6Kbps in Europe, using the Global
System for Mobile communications standard. That's because the analog cellular
telephone system suffers from dropouts and transmission delay problems that limit
speed and interactivity.
To access Web sites, you'll have to bypass cell phones and go for direct radio
transmission. Los Gatos-based Metricom operates Ricochet, a digital
packet-switched radio network that uses spread-spectrum transmission and
standard Internet protocol. A small 28.8Kbps modem with antenna attaches to
your laptop or handheld computer.
The service, priced at $29.95 per month, is only available in the Bay Area,
Washington D.C., Seattle and 11 airports, but the company plans to expand to 14
new metropolitan areas and 128Kbps service later this year.
Another wireless radio transmission system is 3Com's Palm.Net, accessible via its
Palm VII palmtop computer due out this year. The under-$800 Palm VII will have a
built-in, digital radio-based modem that will connect to the nationwide BellSouth
wireless digital packet network.
The Palm VII modem will only operate at 8Kbps, but it will be able to access special
Web information (such as stock quotes and flight schedules) using "Web
clipping" instead of a microbrowser. Web clipping is a low-bandwidth Web-page
format that will be offered on certain Web sites. When Palm VII ships, only 22
content providers will offer Web clipping on their sites, but 3Com Product
Marketing Manager Jim Kruger says a few hundred other developers are
developing sites using 3Com's free HTML-based software development kit.
Cisco Systems has teamed up with Motorola to create an Internet-based cellular
infrastructure that will connect wireless-phone and handheld computer users to
the Internet and corporate networks.
Qualcomm is teaming up with US West for a wireless service with peak download
times of up to 1.8Mbps.
Meanwhile, if you just want to check your e-mail and stocks while you travel,
there's BellSouth Interactive Paging Service (for $24.95 a month). Its $359 RIM
Inter@ctive Pager 950 can receive up to 16,000-character messages in 266
metropolitan areas.
Staff writer Amara D. Angelica can be reached at amaraa@techweek.com. |
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| To: John Stichnoth who wrote (19) | 4/7/1999 12:04:00 PM | | From: straight life | | | |
Ericsson Drags Its Feet on Path to IP
By Kevin Petrie
Staff Reporter
European telephone equipment companies have made big data networking acquisitions recently to catch up with their U.S. counterparts, but Sweden's Ericsson ( (Nasdaq:ERICY - news) ADR) appears to have been left behind.
Just last June the Stockholm-based telecom supplier started its Datacom division in Burlington, Mass., a hub for data-networking entrepreneurs. Its mission: leveraging Ericsson's 40% share of the global cellular-phone market and preparing its full line of wireless and wireless network products for the Internet. Many expected the company to quickly develop strategies to acquire small startups operating in the Northeast corridor.
But rival Europeans have pounced on Ericsson's turf in the U.S., which has become the proving ground for European companies trying to close the American lead in global data communications.
Parisian giant Alcatel ( (NYSE:ALA - news) ADR) is anteing $2.4 billion cash for the switch-maker Xylan and the startup Assured Access, both headquartered in California. Germany's Siemens has launched a loose-reined division, Unisphere, in Burlington, Mass., and snapped up Redstone, Castle Networks and Argon, all based northeast of Boston, for roughly $1.1 billion in cash.
What about Ericsson? "They are somewhat behind" in the Internet protocol race, says Pete Peterson, an analyst with the investment bank Volpe Brown Whelan in San Francisco. Internet protocol, or IP, is the next wave of communications technology. (Peterson rates shares a hold; his firm has no banking relationship with Ericsson.)
"They need to establish the capability to offer IP or data-type protocols over their networks," Peterson says of the Swedish firm. The problem: "Ericsson very well might not have the time to develop the products in-house."
Volpe Brown estimates that data traffic is growing 40% to 50% annually on large carriers' wireline networks, vs. less than 10% for voice traffic. Wireless data traffic is poised for huge growth, although it is tough to gauge right now; wireless voice traffic is growing 40% or more.
But overall, Ericsson is forming close friendships rather than jumping in the sack. "We're not going out there and doing M&A just for the sake of marketing cachet," says Laura Howard, a marketing vice president at Ericsson.
Ericsson has bolstered its stock recently by wisely choosing to end a long-running legal battle and set a cross-license deal with Qualcomm ( (Nasdaq:QCOM - news) ) for CDMA, its data-friendly wireless technology. At the same time Ericsson is selling another wireless technology called general packet radio services, or GPRS, that uses packets of data to transfer messages.
Still, Ericsson hasn't fully repaired its stock (ADRs are trading at 25, down from 34 last summer) because it was slow to develop advanced new wireless handsets, and because sales of its wireline voice switches have ebbed a bit. Those challenges point up the need to develop new Internet protocol technology, which will prove hugely important to upgrading both its network offerings and emerging wireless-Internet products.
It's a sound strategy, says Peterson. "The question is their implementation."
So far Ericsson is taking small bites. In November it snapped up ACC, an affiliate of Newbridge ( (NYSE:NN - news) ) and a supplier of "access" products that connect consumers to the Internet, for $285 million. ACC's Tigris product allows carriers such as Sonera, formerly Telecom Finland, to sort individual IP messages.
In March, Ericsson added to its minority stake in young startup Juniper Networks and agreed to distribute its M40 network routers that compete with leading networker Cisco ( (Nasdaq:CSCO - news) ) and Siemens' Argon. One potential problem: Ericsson must share with rival Juniper investors Nortel ( (NYSE:NT - news) ), Siemens and Lucent ( (NYSE:LU - news) ) -- all of whom have standing offers to distribute Juniper products (to date, none have taken it). For the record, Juniper wants to go public, rather than be acquired.
The company has had modest success in the data networking field. In January, British Telecom ( (NYSE:BTY - news) ADR) agreed to pay Ericsson $440 million over five years to install its ATM switches. Howard says that contract compares favorably to the the $360 million run rate of ATM leader Cascade before it folded into Ascend ( (Nasdaq:ASND - news) ) in June 1997.
One observer sees a positive side to Ericsson's cautious approach. The company intends to build IP "without blowing their earnings" on a costly acquisition, says Tom McIntyre, president of the money manager Dessauer & McIntyre in Orleans, Mass. McIntyre has no plans to exit Ericsson -- roughly 3.5% of his portfolio -- because it has a great brand name and consistently adjusts to technology waves.
Five years ago McIntyre correctly wagered that Ericsson would reap rewards from its costly R&D commitment to wireless technologies. The stock is up more than 300% since then. But McIntyre doesn't see the same commitment to the next wave, Internet protocol. "We don't expect much out of [the stock] in the near term."
That is because Ericsson warned last month that restructuring costs will drag on sales in the first two quarters of the year. Equity analysts trimmed the First Call survey 2 cents to 9 cents per share for the first quarter. Ericsson earned 12 cents a share a year earlier.
The future is in IP. British Telecom plans to use Ericsson technology to fuse its old phone-circuit switches with its Internet systems. This is the path that investors need Ericsson to rush, not step gingerly, toward.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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| To: straight life who wrote (20) | 4/8/1999 9:50:00 AM | | From: Shi | | | |
Is this the board to show off our war-wounds? Have been in Q for more
than two years. I still miss the day when you could buy the Q for 50s, 40s, even 30s. And a bunch of guys sat on the (cyber) porch, sipping (ctber) beers, and discussed how great the Q was going to be. Now we are richer, but good old days will never be back again!
I hope Gregg Powers can still visit us from time to time. Anything
he said I hold as gospel.
Now back to the Q. Do you think Q is going to resume its up before the earning and sell-off after pattern? Can't wait for China to come long. Potential is too great. With all the lay-offs, middle class are still middle class, rich people get richer!
Shi |
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| To: marginmike who wrote () | 4/8/1999 11:54:00 PM | | From: Eric L | | | |
Hello QCOM "Old Timers",
Don't mean to crash your new thread (started by an SI "newbie"). This will be my first and last post here because I an a "newbie" even though I've been involved with digital wireless mobile telephony and CDMA (also TDMA, GSM) since late 94.
I'll bookmark this site and will scan posts, but post if the spirit moves me on "Your" old thread. Hope some of you check in on the old thread, as I've enjoyed reading your posts for the last 15 months, and I'd really encourage that you participate in and contribute to the CDG discussion threads which are sparsely posted.
**** Slightly OT *****
If you get tracked down here or at CDG and need more privacy I would suggest that you establish your own web site and discussion forum there. I'll give you an example of same:
betatesters.com
**** Real OT *****
Above site was started in 96 after a batch of us who met in early 95 as beta testers for graphical browsers and national ISP's in early days of 2G Internet (windows not UNIX). We started at GNN, moved as a group when it launched commercial to beta test MCI NewsCorp (which folded), then on to the Beta of AT&T WorldNet till it launched commercial with very limited POPs. One benefit of this back then was free Internet Access long before $19.95/mo unlimited access was available. As we progressed, "newbies" would crash our "reserved beta testers" newsgroups creating what some would call spam, and others, detractions or infringements of our social order. Heck, we had graduated to the 32-bit winsock world and could all configure the early DUN in our sleep so we were light years ahead of "newbies" <g>. Anyway, we all eventually migrated to different ISP's, and so we started the betatesters.com site to get together while enjoying some privacy. Lots of us have drifted off following other pursuits but ...
Sorry to digress. Good luck with your splinter thread and your investments. RIP & LOL! I remain long 'Q" and look forward to reading you.
- Eric - |
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| To: kech who wrote (17) | 4/9/1999 11:39:00 AM | | From: H. Bradley Toland, Jr. | | | |
Tom Brush and all, I have a few questions for you.
As you may recall, for the life of me, I couldn't understand ERICY's resistance to manufacturing CDMA equipment a few years ago--because they are manufacturers and should be willing to mfg whatever the market wants.
Do you or anyone have comments as to why ATT is still ignoring CDMA or why they continue building TDMA systems across the U.S.? Why is Worldcom/MCI ignoring cellular altogether? And or why is Worldcom/MCI buying Nextel which I believe is not CDMA compatible? It seems to me they both are at peril of losing the most important part of ones business--a customer base!
This question/comment may seem like a advertisement for which I apologize for in advance. Why are the long distance carriers and baby bells ignoring the CLECs like Winstar (WCII)?! It looks like Winstar has a very good chance of becoming a very big carrier very quickly, because they have conquered the last mile bottleneck thru point-to-point and point-to-multipoint technology they are deploying everywhere. It looks like existing carriers stand a really good chance of losing their high margin business, the commercial customer to Winstar.
In short, Qualcomm's technology grabs the retail customer and CLECs take commercial--shouldn't this be a bit more alarming to status quo folks?
bt |
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| To: H. Bradley Toland, Jr. who wrote (24) | 4/9/1999 10:40:00 PM | | From: kech | | | |
H Bradley - ATT is focusing on filling in their network. Once it is all saturated they could still switch to CDMA. A long time ago they focused on switches with Lucent that could easily be switched over. Getting everyone to give up their phones might be tougher.
WorldCom will eventually buy Nextel.
I don't know why the Bells are ignoring CLECS like Winstar. What do you think they should be doing about them? |
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| To: kech who wrote (25) | 4/12/1999 12:00:00 PM | | From: H. Bradley Toland, Jr. | | | |
Tom, I'm not sure, but it is going to be very interesting to see the next quarterly report of WCII and the penetration they have made in their initial markets, like New York.
bt |
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