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   Technology StocksVarian Semiconductor Equipment Associates -- VSEA

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To: etchmeister who wrote (1898)7/27/2009 11:51:28 AM
From: etchmeister
   of 1929
Hard to believe - for sure I expected SI to decrease

I like Robert's post about Toshiba - let's play ball

Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc. $ 29.64
VSEA -0.27
Short Interest (Shares Short) 6,658,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.9
Short Percent of Float 9.16 %
Short Interest - Prior 6,199,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 7.40 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ 1
% From 52-Wk High ($ 35.04 ) -18.24 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 14.05 ) 52.59 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 22.21 ) 25.05 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 25.68 ) 13.35 %
Price % Change (52-Week) 1.40 %
Shares Float 72,660,000
Total Shares Outstanding 73,145,215
% Owned by Insiders 0.67 %
% Owned by Institutions %
Market Cap. $ 2,167,658,447
Trading Volume - Today 228,554
Trading Volume - Average 1,365,800
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 16.73 %
Earnings Per Share -0.16
PE Ratio
Record Date 2009-JulB
Sector Technology
Industry Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Exchange NAS

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From: etchmeister7/29/2009 6:01:02 PM
   of 1929
If they come close to LAM's revenue guidance (versus analyst estimates) they should be profitable.
I am not a bean counter -
breakeven point and operating margins

Any analyst out there with balls making a guess tomorrow or will they wait.
Citi Boy Tim Acurri upgraded VECO AFTER the fact - that must feel really good. Stock s up 30% and Citi Bozzo issues an upgrade.

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To: etchmeister who wrote (1902)7/29/2009 9:51:54 PM
From: cluka
   of 1929

They said breakeven around $85 mil.

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To: cluka who wrote (1903)7/29/2009 11:17:14 PM
From: etchmeister
   of 1929
Breakeven is dependent on mix:

Sequense of events in case utilization rates go up:

1.) Increase spares and consumables as result of increasing utilization rates (high margin)
2.) Buy upgrades for existing tools to increase output without buying new equipment (high margin)
3.) add capacity with new tools

I think the breakeven is somewhat dependent on mix but 1.) and 2.) should be a precursor for 3.) = buying additional tools

Brett Hodess - Banc of America

Good afternoon. Bob, earlier, you mentioned on the breakeven, I think around 85 million, given your outlook for the spares and upgrade mix. Is that the breakeven, like on an EBITDA type of basis?

Robert Halliday


Brett Hodess - Banc of America

And then, can you give us an idea of how high you think the spares service upgrades will go as a percentage of the mix, as we're in sort of this transitional phase of the cycle?

Robert Halliday

Well, I'll give you some factoids, as of, like September of '08, that quarter, we were up around 55 million or, so maybe even a little more on non-systems business. That would be spares, upgrades and contract services. And then, if you look at now, we're a lot less than that. It went down very quickly.

So then, we think it's going to go upward bound, virtually all those tools are still out there. In fact, we keep growing the installed base, we keep coming with up new upgrade products. So, the question is how fast they go up? I think eventually get back the same number. I am just no sure the RAM.

So then in terms of how much it is as a percentage of the mix, then you can figure how faster equipment was back. I mean it's not hard to figure out. It's close to 50% in the quarter we just ended.

Robert Halliday

Sure. If you look at the cash breakeven, I'll give you a couple of things. One, it's a cash breakeven and our non-cash charges are about $9.2 million, $9.5 million dollars a quarter.

The second thing is, we think our gross margins are going up. And with just some improvement on spare parts sales in the next couple of quarters, we could be at about $85 million breakeven, but right now we're a little above that. We're above that because the spare parts are low, but we think that's going to go up pretty quickly in the next couple of quarters.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. And any idea what the margin would look like at breakeven?

Robert Halliday

So 40.

transcript from seeking alpha Varian CC April 2009

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From: etchmeister7/30/2009 5:34:56 PM
   of 1929
An additional $20 Millions (shipments) North of Break even? coupled with improving factory overhead absorption?
PLAD capacity buys on the horizon?
and Intel double patterning ( they are hiring planners at three Intel sites)

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To: etchmeister who wrote (1905)9/4/2009 11:58:12 AM
From: etchmeister
   of 1929
Upwards revisions pending;
NVLS just confirmed what I was thinking

the high end estimate appears more than reasonable in particular Sept 2010

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From: etchmeister9/18/2009 3:34:08 PM
   of 1929
Stacked Flash - just another opportunity down the road (2 to 3 years?)

Message 25951589

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From: etchmeister9/22/2009 11:58:05 AM
   of 1929
Toshiba and SanDisk reportedly to begin sub-30nm NAND flash production in 2H10
(2x = PLAD)
Heck - and they call AMAT a value play ...those S and Pee guys

Latest news

Josephine Lien, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 21 September 2009]

Toshiba and its NAND flash partner SanDisk reportedly plan to begin mass producing NAND flash chips fabricated on 20nm-class process technology in the second half of 2010, according to industry sources. In line with the technology migration, SanDisk and Toshiba's joint-venture manufacturing facilities in Yokkaichi (Mie prefecture, Japan) is expected to ramp up its monthly capacity to around 200,000 wafers.

Toshiba, which recently started mass production of 3-bit per cell (3bpc) 32nm devices, originally expected 32nm to account for over 50%of the total output from the Yokkaichi operations by the end of 2009, the sources said. But the ramp-up reportedly has been behind schedule, the sources added.

Rival group Intel and Micron Technology have said they expect to introduce 2xnm technology later in 2009, according to previous reports. Mass production of their 32Gb NAND flash memory using 3bpc 34nm process technology is on track to take place at the two companies' joint venture IM Flash Technologies.

Samsung Electronics reportedly is also stepping up efforts for the solid-state drive (SSD) market, moving to upgrade its 8-inch fab in Austin, Texas into a 12-inch fab for producing more NAND flash chips from the second half of 2010, previous reports indicated. The Korea-based chip vendor currently produces NAND flash using 42nm.

The cost structure of SSD would be significantly improved with NAND flash chips produced on 2Xnm, accelerating its replacement for hard drives, sources at memory module makers commented.

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From: etchmeister10/8/2009 1:31:20 PM
   of 1929
Stupid me - well better "late" than never

Now who else is working closely with Soitec?
Varian is going to ride this one - Mr. Market is just too slow.

ARM reports 45-nm SOI test chip with 40% power-saving

Peter Clarke
EE Times
(10/08/2009 5:48 AM EDT)

LONDON — Researchers from processor IP licensor ARM Holdings plc (Cambridge, England) have reported on a silicon-on-insulator (SOI) 45-nm test chip that demonstrates potential power savings of up to 40 percent over traditional bulk process for manufacturing chips at the same geometry. The findings were presented at the IEEE SOI Conference in Foster City, California.

ARM and SOI wafer provider Soitec SA (Grenoble, France) collaborated to produce the test chip to demonstrate the power savings in a real silicon implementation with a well-known, industry-standard core. The design was implemented using ARM and IBM standard SOI libraries and leading EDA tools. The IP ecosystem and manufacturing solutions are in place for design starts with ARM and IBM libraries on IBM 45-nm SOI technology.

The test chip was based on an ARM 1176 processor and enables a direct comparison between SOI and bulk microprocessor implementations. The results confirm SOI technology is a viable alternative to traditional bulk process technology when designing low-power processors for high-performance consumer devices and mobile applications, ARM said.

ARM and Soitec collaborated to produce a test chip to demonstrate the power savings in a real silicon implementation with a well-known, industry-standard core. The goal was to produce a comparison of 45-nm SOI high-performance technology with bulk CMOS 45-nm low-power technology of the same product.

The results show that 45-nm high-performance SOI technology can provide up to 40 percent power savings and a 7 percent circuit area reduction compared to bulk CMOS low-power technology, operating at the same speed. This same implementation also demonstrated 20 percent higher operating frequency capability over bulk while saving 30 percent in total power in specific test applications.

"This benchmark by ARM and Soitec clearly demonstrates the potential power/performance benefits of our sixth-generation 45-nm SOI technology now available to both ASIC and foundry clients," said Mark Ireland, vice president of semiconductor products and services at IBM, in a statement issued by ARM. "Validating the power advantage of SOI with an industry-standard ARM processor demonstrates the possibilities for SOI adoption in the digital consumer electronics segment."

"This is a significant step for the industry, as the collaborative efforts of SOI Consortium member companies have produced a proof-point that the energy efficiency of SOI technology could cover battery operated applications," said Horacio Mendez, executive director of the SOI Industry Consortium, in the same statement.

Related links and articles:

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From: etchmeister10/9/2009 12:37:43 PM
   of 1929
I will have to be patient but estimates are slowly being raised.
This one is next in line - of course my 2 cents

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