| To: etchmeister who wrote (1896) | 7/14/2009 12:27:12 PM | | From: cluka | | | | etch,
Get a grip.
This is a $2 billion business. How much revenue at what margin justifies that valuation?
Shares are way overpriced thanks to the analyst gangsters. You should send them a thank you note. |
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| To: cluka who wrote (1897) | 7/14/2009 9:34:42 PM | | From: etchmeister | | | | etch,
Get a grip.
Don't worry about my grip
who else picked up on the breakeven?
For sure it wasn't you.
There is so much in the (revenue) pipeline - in case Ho is correct about Toshiba and Toshiba is in deed switching to single wafer implant the shorts will receive some additional shelling - I mean 88mm caliber
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc. $ 28.00
VSEA 0.60
Short Interest (Shares Short) 6,199,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 9.8
Short Percent of Float 8.59 %
Short Interest - Prior 6,381,200
Short % Increase / Decrease -2.85 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -10 |
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| From: etchmeister | 7/24/2009 12:19:57 PM | | | | | | Positive headlines - broad based among the industry.
digitimes.com
DDR3 pricing looks strong - excellent news for Varian.
(Remember the Citi BS about FormFactor being the only one benefiting from he transition to DDR3)
Dropping on very low volume - the usual pattern over the last four months or so |
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| From: etchmeister | 7/25/2009 10:34:45 PM | | | | | | I feel good - from last CC
Number of implants continues to increase:
One interesting one was one of our largest flash customers with a pretty significant increase in terms of number of implants steps. I think it was something like 10 additional medium current steps and three additional high currently steps.
"Non Typical" implant applications are emerging in conjunction with etch and litho:
There is one customer, that large logic customer (Intel?) that's adding a new litho implant that will add implant capacity as they go to the next technology nodes. Those things are also potential opportunities for us.
One of our largest memory customers also has implemented implant to improve edge uniformity and achieve pattern-independent etched-up and shape control as part of the production process flow for their next technology node.
Pent up demand for 5x transition:
So as you know, there is a number of DRAM customers in Asia, Taiwan and elsewhere that if they want to ramp their 5X tools like PLAD, they need to buy to ramp, because they qualify it as a tool they're going to use, but they don't buy any real volume.
CMOS sensors:
We also have an opportunity to drive further penetration of our VIISta beam line products into the CMOS image sensor market. One of our largest customers in FY '09 is a Japanese CMOS image sensor account where we have significant penetration in high current and high energy.
Conversion from trench to stack:
I don't know that we have that exact number, but one of the things that is happening, those customers that were running trench in DRAM will be implementing dual Poly-gate with PLAD tools...right now is, it's a very small number just of initial tools as they ramp the first phase of the capacity. Of course, as those fabs ramp, that's a big opportunity for us. That’s conversion from trench to stack.
source:
seeking alfa CC April 2009 transcript |
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1898) | 7/27/2009 11:51:28 AM | | From: etchmeister | | | | Hard to believe - for sure I expected SI to decrease
I like Robert's post about Toshiba - let's play ball
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc. $ 29.64
VSEA -0.27
Short Interest (Shares Short) 6,658,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 4.9
Short Percent of Float 9.16 %
Short Interest - Prior 6,199,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 7.40 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ 1
% From 52-Wk High ($ 35.04 ) -18.24 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 14.05 ) 52.59 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 22.21 ) 25.05 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 25.68 ) 13.35 %
Price % Change (52-Week) 1.40 %
Shares Float 72,660,000
Total Shares Outstanding 73,145,215
% Owned by Insiders 0.67 %
% Owned by Institutions %
Market Cap. $ 2,167,658,447
Trading Volume - Today 228,554
Trading Volume - Average 1,365,800
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 16.73 %
Earnings Per Share -0.16
PE Ratio
Record Date 2009-JulB
Sector Technology
Industry Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Exchange NAS |
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| From: etchmeister | 7/29/2009 6:01:02 PM | | | | | | If they come close to LAM's revenue guidance (versus analyst estimates) they should be profitable.
I am not a bean counter -
breakeven point and operating margins
Any analyst out there with balls making a guess tomorrow or will they wait.
Citi Boy Tim Acurri upgraded VECO AFTER the fact - that must feel really good. Stock s up 30% and Citi Bozzo issues an upgrade. |
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| To: cluka who wrote (1903) | 7/29/2009 11:17:14 PM | | From: etchmeister | | | | Breakeven is dependent on mix:
Sequense of events in case utilization rates go up:
1.) Increase spares and consumables as result of increasing utilization rates (high margin)
2.) Buy upgrades for existing tools to increase output without buying new equipment (high margin)
3.) add capacity with new tools
I think the breakeven is somewhat dependent on mix but 1.) and 2.) should be a precursor for 3.) = buying additional tools
Brett Hodess - Banc of America
Good afternoon. Bob, earlier, you mentioned on the breakeven, I think around 85 million, given your outlook for the spares and upgrade mix. Is that the breakeven, like on an EBITDA type of basis?
Robert Halliday
Yes.
Brett Hodess - Banc of America
And then, can you give us an idea of how high you think the spares service upgrades will go as a percentage of the mix, as we're in sort of this transitional phase of the cycle?
Robert Halliday
Well, I'll give you some factoids, as of, like September of '08, that quarter, we were up around 55 million or, so maybe even a little more on non-systems business. That would be spares, upgrades and contract services. And then, if you look at now, we're a lot less than that. It went down very quickly.
So then, we think it's going to go upward bound, virtually all those tools are still out there. In fact, we keep growing the installed base, we keep coming with up new upgrade products. So, the question is how fast they go up? I think eventually get back the same number. I am just no sure the RAM.
So then in terms of how much it is as a percentage of the mix, then you can figure how faster equipment was back. I mean it's not hard to figure out. It's close to 50% in the quarter we just ended.
Robert Halliday
Sure. If you look at the cash breakeven, I'll give you a couple of things. One, it's a cash breakeven and our non-cash charges are about $9.2 million, $9.5 million dollars a quarter.
The second thing is, we think our gross margins are going up. And with just some improvement on spare parts sales in the next couple of quarters, we could be at about $85 million breakeven, but right now we're a little above that. We're above that because the spare parts are low, but we think that's going to go up pretty quickly in the next couple of quarters.
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. And any idea what the margin would look like at breakeven?
Robert Halliday
So 40.
Source:
transcript from seeking alpha Varian CC April 2009 |
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| From: etchmeister | 7/30/2009 5:34:56 PM | | | | | | An additional $20 Millions (shipments) North of Break even? coupled with improving factory overhead absorption?
PLAD capacity buys on the horizon?
and Intel double patterning ( they are hiring planners at three Intel sites) |
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