| To: etchmeister who wrote (1873) | 4/30/2009 11:18:39 PM | | From: etchmeister | | | | As pixel sizes and the number of pixels continue to increase, CMOS image sensor manufacturers have significant challenges in driving improvement in picture quality. One of the main problems with picture quality is the existence of dark current or leakage current. Using PLAD for sidewall doping of the trench structures on CMOS image sensors has been shown to reduce dark current. Customers have also seen improvement in picture quality from additional new PLAD applications.
We also have an opportunity to drive further penetration of our VIISta beam line products into the CMOS image sensor market. One of our largest customers in FY '09 is a Japanese CMOS image sensor account where we have significant penetration in high current and high energy.
seekingalpha.com |
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1881) | 4/30/2009 11:32:37 PM | | From: etchmeister | | | | It is NOT a niche, (implant)applications relate/interact with litho as well as etch
Another large CapEx customer is using Varian high current in R&D as development tool of record to freeze the first pattern in a double patterning lithography process. We see potential for increased adoption of the implant-based litho applications for 32-nanometer and below technologies. |
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| From: etchmeister | 5/1/2009 1:59:16 PM | | | | | | LRCX, NVLS and Varin pretty consistent in assessing current situation and outlook.
Actually I felt VSEA had the most positive bias towards the future.
Supposedly break even s only on the order of $85 million and upgade business has very fat margins...what's annoying about VSEA is the fact that certain funds strictly use it a as trading vehicle but rediculous volume can move the stock n either direction
Gary Dickerson
I think the other thing on the tool utilization, we track tools turned off. And in the last couple of months, there has been a significant change in that metric.
Robert Halliday
A lot of tools have been turned back on.
Gary Dickerson
Many tools turned back on.
Suresh Balaraman - ThinkEquity
Are there any comments on the pricing environment? Are you guys subject to the kind of severity and discounting as many of your other peers in the capital equipment land, given that you have limited competition?
Gary Dickerson
I don't think that that had unusual pricing pressure this time. I think our products are pretty valuable products and our position is pretty good with the customers.
Robert Halliday
Right now, who knows for sure what will happen. But the margin forecast looks incrementally positive going forward.
seekingalpha.com |
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1883) | 5/1/2009 2:36:01 PM | | From: cluka | | | | Conference call raised more questions than it answered and pointed to certain weaknesses in VSEAs business. It is clear that without full blown ramp in memory expansion VSEA business will not recover to anything close to where it was. Memory business is not likely to make serious investments in a long time to come and it can be argued that half the players in memory should go out of business before we see capacity additions.
Consider this,
AMAT revenue for this qtr is expected to be $900MM, AMAT market cap is $16.5B, that is price to sales of ~4.6 at current revenue run rate.
LRCX revenue is $200MM, market cap 3.5B, P/S ~4.4
VSEA, $65MM, market cap $1.75B, P/S ~6.7!!!
Find me another company in sector with number like that. Why does VSEA deserve such premium over LRCX let alone AMAT that has always had higher P/S than any other semi equip stock.
VSEA business and prospects simply do not warrant this premium and last nights conference call makes that very clear. |
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| To: cluka who wrote (1884) | 5/1/2009 3:53:17 PM | | From: etchmeister | | | | Conference call raised more questions than it answered and pointed to certain weaknesses in VSEAs business.
You have to me more specific on this one;
Varian was very specific about capacity additions and they "laid out" certain "precursors" for capacity additions.
"Productivity upgrades" are the first form o capacity additions and this business offers very healthy margins.
PLAD addresses applications beyond traditional implant for example litho ; they also compensate for etch nonuniformity by changing doping profile/level across the wafer to compensate for etch non uniformity.
CMOS sensor is somewhat lagging technology but PLAD addresses certain shortcomings when increasing pixel.
LRCX has zero business at Intel;
and what about AMAT's remaining installed base of implanters - who is going to upgrade those? Certainly not VSEA - eventually Varian will capture this AMAT business completely and there is NO single wafer besides ACLS - as far as I understand SEN Japan) is strictly batch and will try everything to extent batch but single wafer approach will slowly but surely grind down batch.
Varian continues to penetrate new customers. You are "in or out" and Varian is "IN" - it's not a matter whether they get the business - it's only a matter of when.
One comment about AMAT:
over the last 10 years they missed out on certain high growth applications such as implant
Compared to the past AMAT's etch business is marginal; they could not break NVLS copper business but they were successful in defending CMP.
The transition to copper might be bad news for AMAT because AMAT owned many applications based on Aluminum
As I posted on NVLS board the NVLS/TEL colaboration could be a direct blow to AMAT because it eliminates a PVD processing step which to my knowledge is dominated by AMAT.
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1885) | 5/1/2009 4:31:10 PM | | From: cluka | | | | Etch,
Varian says some tools were put back on over the last month. How many are still off? They say 200 to 300 upgrades are first sign of rebound but they did not see any upgrades yet. They are hoping next qtr they will get some and with spare parts pickup they will do 60-70MM in revenue. Please explain to me when do you think they will see 100MM qtr? In a year maybe? Maybe longer? You are paying premium for a stock that absolutely does not deserve it.
It makes no difference what you think of AMAT or LRCX, pick any company in this space. Is it reasonable that VSEA should get 50% premium to any other company? |
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