| From: etchmeister | 8/12/2008 11:10:53 PM | | | | | | Varian added 7 additional evaluation tools that eventually will result in revenue and more important FOLLOW UP orders; there is a total of 14 eval units out there that all will eventually bear fruits - it's mind blowing (and no surprise at the same time) how little interest this company draws - they are all into semi penny stocks - LOL
SSD makers finally see growth app
Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(08/12/2008 1:36 PM EDT)
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- For some time, suppliers of solid-state drives (SSDs) have been searching for a high-volume market for their products.
Notebooks, servers and other systems are among the potential high-volume markets for SSDs, but cost has been a major stumbling block. Hard drives remain cheaper and more reliable, some argue.
However, vendors may have finally found a ''killer application'' for SSDs, which are based on NAND flash memories. The ultra mobile PC, netbook and related sub-notebook segments could become a big driver for SSDs, said Doreet Oren, director of product marketing for SSDs at SanDisk Corp., during a presentation at the Flash Memory Summit here on Tuesday (Aug. 12).
In this segment, the SSD market could hit 33 million units by 2012, according to Gartner Inc. Ultra mobile systems sell from $250-to-$600. Acer, Asus and Intel are among the pioneers in ultra mobiles, which use SSDs.
SSD capacities in ultra mobiles range from 4-to-6 gigabytes. Many of the early models use single-level cell (SLC) NAND technology. Going forward, an 8-GB drive based on multi-level cell (MLC) NAND devices is expected to be the mainstream technology for netbooks, said Don Larson, product line manager at Intel Corp., during a presentation at the event. "Maybe 16-gigabytes [will be feasible] next year,'' he said.
There are still issues with SSDs in general. Prices for SSDs remain more expensive than traditional hard disk drives, SanDisk's Oren said. "SSD costs are coming down,'' thanks to die shrinks, three-bit-per-cell (x3) and related technologies, she said.
Other improvements are being made with SSDs. ''We seeing improvements in controller technology,'' said Todd Dinkelman, senior applications engineer at of Micron Technology Inc. ''Early shortcomings for reliability and endurance are being overcome.''
According to Dinkelman, there are several design considerations with SSDs: bit error rate; raw bit error rate; uncorrectable bit error rate system; and meantime between failures. y |
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| From: etchmeister | 9/15/2008 1:42:41 PM | | | | | | Japs are throwing in the towel?
ACLS is the only single wafer implant alternative as far as I know and the trend is to replace batch - again this bad news should bode well for Varian with many eval tools out there including Japan.
(and NVLS and LRCX both chasing ACLS in resist stripping - over and over the pundits predicted consolidation in equipment sector but the the few aquisitons were very, very selective)
UPDATE 1-Axcelis says Sumitomo will not make offer, shares sink
Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:25am EDT
Sept 15 (Reuters) - Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said Japan's Sumitomo Heavy Industries (6302.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) will not make an acquisition offer at this time, sending the semiconductor equipment maker's shares to their lowest levels ever.
Axcelis was in talks with Sumitomo and private equity firm TPG Capital LP since June after they made a $616 million unsolicited takeover bid for Axcelis. In a regulatory filing, Axcelis said Sumitomo had, on Sept. 4, informed that it was placing discussions regarding the acquisition "on hold."
Axcelis also said its board is currently evaluating several refinancing plans.
Axcelis, which makes ion implantation equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, was spun off from Eaton Corp (ETN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) in 2000. Sumitomo Heavy, which makes heavy machinery, and Axcelis have a joint venture in Japan called SEN.
Shares of Axcelis lost more than half of their value and were trading down $2.34 at their life-low of $1.90. (Reporting by Purwa Naveen Raman in Bangalore; Editing by Amitha Rajan) |
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| From: etchmeister | 3/29/2009 1:26:40 AM | | | | | | Like Apple (AAPL). "Apple is a no-brainer," he says. "They have executed flawlessly. We're hearing that iPhone build numbers from Taiwan point to 100% sequential growth in units in the June quarter. They have $31 a share in cash and generate $8-$9 a year in free cash flow. It's so cheap: You can own Apple for an enterprise value/free cash flow multiple of 8 times. Why screw around with Lam or Varian?"
Why screw with Varian?
Good question - Varian owns the single wafer implant market - one of the most critical steps - don't fool yourself - Apple depends on Varian because Varian et al is critical to supply cheap silicon to Apple
online.barrons.com
And that idea has fueled a rousing run in semi-equipment stocks: Since late November, Applied Materials (ticker: AMAT) is up 43%; ASML (ASML) has gained 44%; KLA Tencor (KLAC), 46%; Novellus (NVLS) and Varian Semicondcutor (VSEA), 53%, and Lam Research (LRCX), 70%. What makes that so astounding is that the equipment sector is enduring its worst downturn ever. Want to see what a depression looks like? Many of these companies will report first-quarter revenue down 50% or more, year over year.
Perhaps Eric should apply the same "logic" to financial stocks - LOL
LRCX all time low was less than $ 3 - obviously they must have done something between it hit an all time low of $3 and today.
BTW
Amazing that the person who created the Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! got 86ed |
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| From: etchmeister | 4/21/2009 11:48:05 PM | | | | | | DRAM supply to spot market shrink significantly to support DDR2 1Gb price up further
(BTW there is plenty of crude but they decided to shut down refineries in CA...)
Published Apr.21 2009, 17:23 PM (GMT+8)
DRAM supply to spot market shrink significantly to support DDR2 1Gb price up further
DRAM spot prices have moved up more than 15% from the average $0.95 on April 13th to $1.13 on April 16th after the marketers learned that the major eTT suppliers Powerchip and Elpida won’t release DRAM chips to spot market in the short term and tried to accumulate their inventory higher.
The 1Gb eTT chip average price has even reached $1.2 on April 16th.
A news circuited in DRAM spot market last week that Elpida has decided to stop the shipment to spot market including the biggest customer, Kingston and Powerchip also will limit the volume shipped to lowest level to the spot market till June ’09 and it boosted the speculation demand in the spot market and pushed the 1Gb eTT spot prices to reach $1.2.
According to DRAMeXchange’s survey, the market share of Elpida and Powerchip in spot market accounts near 60% including their shipment to the biggest DRAM module house, Kingston Technology and marketers believe that the further limit of shipment to spot market can help the DDR2 1Gb price moving up to $1.5 in June or Q309. Though Hynix and Nanya will still release chips to spot market but the volume is expected to be low as well in order to keep the upward momentum.
DDR2 contract prices moves up 6% -10% in 2H April
DRAM makers have claimed that they’ve successfully raised the 2H April contract prices 6% to 10% higher from the range of $16 to $18 per 2GB module to the range of $17 to $20. Meanwhile, they also admitted that they have fixed one month deal for April with a few PC OEMs customers whose prices keep unchanged. DRAM makers have targeted to move 2GB lowest price to $20 which is about$1.06/1Gb in May or June ’09. However, PC OEMs have claimed that they’ve built high inventory around 6 to 8 weeks and don’t expect a soaring price in the near term.
According to DRAMeXchange’s checking, the DRAM supply and demand has reached balance after DRAM markers cut more and more capacity. The spot prices will move up from the range of $1.0 - $1.2 to the range of $1.2 - $1.5 as the supply shrinks sharply and to lead the contract prices up toward $1.2 in Q309. |
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| From: etchmeister | 4/25/2009 2:18:29 PM | | | | | | NVLS reported 50% of business coming from North America (probably Intel) while Lam said it was handicaped by lack of exposure to Intel and limited exposure to Toshiba.
Also Lam did not see any slowdown memory moving to copper and smaller geometries - even in dire times Moore's clock keeps ticking.
Sometimes the market is fast and sometimes slow - methinks "the market" has not fully comprehended Varian - some probably still make a connection to the company that makes medical equipment.
One of the top picks - perhaps the coming cycle will be the "Varian Cycle".
I do not to recall exactly but LRCX or NVLS stated there was no pressure with regards to ASP - need to double check.
Recall the oxymoron WS analysts bitching at Intel for spending on Capex to position itself longterm while pumping up commodities -
Anybody worrying abut Intel besides Moore running out of gas?
all it took to pump up diesel was China games and an earthquake that created demand for diesel powered generators. oh well ashes,ashes all fall down...
coming soon to you @ the Shoreline Theater
Sumitomo/Axcelis: What's next, what's possible
Date: February, 2008
by James Montgomery, News Editor, Solid State Technology
Feb. 12, 2008 - Industry watchers tell WaferNEWS what likely spurred the unsolicited proposal from Sumitomo to acquire JV partner Axcelis; what's good and bad about such a combination; and how might a changed implant sector landscape be positioned for the next key period: 22nm and vertical transistors.
After what it claims was nearly two years of rebuffed approaches, Sumitomo this week launched an unusually public proposal to acquire Axcelis Technologies, its 50/50 JV partner in Japan (Sumitomo Eaton Nova, or SEN). For now, Sumitomo is waiting for an answer, while Axcelis execs say they're reviewing it (but no timeline provided).
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One of the first questions to ask is, how did this happen? Public discussions by Axcelis execs (notably quarterly conference calls) have been peppered with hints of discord for roughly two years, and even participating analysts have continuously asked about how the relationship stands.
Industry sources contacted by WaferNEWS -- Dean Freeman, research VP at Gartner, and John. O. Borland, SST editorial board advisor -- seemed to agree that SEN actually was faster to recognize the need for 300mm tools, and Borland pointed to SEN's endstation (specifically requested by Taiwanese customers) with a gyroscopic design that Axcelis eventually adopted.
But perhaps the final straw concerned Axcelis' refusal to license its Optima Imax high dose, low energy implant tool to SEN in Japan -- and in the company's latest quarterly call, execs indicated the company plans to sell the tools direct in Japan, recording sales in 2008.
"Until around 2005, Varian [Semi. Equip. Assoc.] had very little traction in Japan," Freeman noted, but single-wafer tool stumbles by Applied and lateness by Sumitomo/Axcelis allowed Varian to "walk in and pick up Toshiba and Elpida['s]" high-current business, and now can use that as a bridge to sell their medium-current offerings. Axcelis is just now "beginning to make enough inroads to pick up [...] people late to 65nm and below," he said.
Meanwhile, market dynamics also are putting pressure on a tighter relationship. The industry can't support 3-5 suppliers in each sector anymore, Freeman noted, and now it's only two or maybe three: "the 'process of record' and a competitor to keep prices down," he said. And right now, "Axcelis is the second vendor [customers use] to leverage Varian over the next few years."
Speculating if the deal is approved, both Freeman and Borland acknowledged several questions remain, including the proposed management structure -- to what extent Sumitomo would take a dominant role, how they would (re)structure their Japan JV operation, how Japan's Sumitomo would manage US-based Axcelis (e.g. with domestic leadership or sending Japan execs overseas), etc.
But the main concern facing Axcelis and SEN/Sumitomo would be whether, as a combined and streamlined entity, they can push forward with best-of-breed technology to regain share against market leader Varian. Axcelis/SEN "had an extremely loyal customer base," up until those customers needed the single-wafer high-current implant technology that the two suppliers couldn't yet provide, Freeman noted. "Can they win that customer base back? Or because of their failure to execute, have they lost it forever - or until Varian trips?"
The answer may come at the next inflection point for this sector, around the 32nm-22nm node (logic), and the introduction of vertical transistors, where "implant is very critical," Freeman noted. Chipmakers will have to choose between plasma or beamline implant, and the game will be who has the better tool platform for it.
In terms of beamline, Borland thinks that, right now, Axcelis may have a leg up with its spot-beam technology vs. Varian's ribbon broadbeam technology, with nonuniformity the key differentiator. In the next three years or so (~22nm), he told WaferNEWS, chipmakers will have a choice: "either switch vendors or switch dopant species" (currently phosphide, which offers better activation than arsenic, and maybe later antimony). Similar to their choice to move from batch to single-wafer platforms, it's going to be a decision based on device yields, and that's the only way he sees a platform switch taking place.
Beamline aside, Axcelis/SEN may have an advantage in plasma as well. Borland pointed out that SEN sells a plasma implant tool in Japan's TFT market, so it could apply that knowledge to similar technology for semiconductors. "It requires much more control, and means adding hardware and software, but the basic concept is the same," he sad.
Freeman added that a formal Axcelis/SEN combination may not be the end of this story, noting that economies-of-scale in this industry now means companies really need ~$200M in annual sales to even play in niche markets/regions, and more like $500M-$1B to be a significant global player. The question is, would ACLS/SEN be satisfied as a niche player, or would it want to grow bigger -- and do it organically or inorganically? The latter opens up intriguing growth possibilities, he noted, speculating future attractive combinations with oft-rumored industry consolidators like TEL, NVLS, or LAM -- or even ASMI, whose shareholders continue to push for a split of its frontend and backend businesses, and which lacks a presence in doping, Freeman pointed out.
So it seems there are many reasons for Axcelis and Sumitomo to formally join forces in the implant sector. But perhaps the biggest roadblock is as yet unknown. A third industry source, not tied to either company, pointed out that Sumitomo's actions are very atypical of Japanese companies, who traditionally avoid not only international M&A but also such public controversy (though also acknowledged the changing business environment where shareholder value is paramount, and foreign capital is increasingly making market inroads). Still, such a public hostile act against one's 20+year JV partner "must mean things are really bad," the source suggested, "and it's hard to see how this is going to make them better." J.M. |
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1875) | 4/25/2009 2:38:03 PM | | From: cluka | | | | VSEA has a terrific niche, they are best of breed and have a bright future.
That said, stock price is certainly reflecting the premium, it is apples to apples the most expensive stock among semi equips.
VSEA business is capacity driven. You have to be foolish to think that any segment of the Semi industry starts adding to capacity. Transition to smaller geometry will happen but not on the large scale and not in DRAM in the near term.
I agree that longer term VSEA is a solid holding, short term, I would short into earnings at $24+. |
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| To: cluka who wrote (1876) | 4/27/2009 2:07:47 AM | | From: etchmeister | | | | VSEA business is capacity driven.
I suppose that is not Varian specific
You have to be foolish to think that any segment of the Semi industry starts adding to capacity. Transition to smaller geometry will happen but not on the large scale and not in DRAM in the near term.
I always like to look at it from different angles - I also believe that not all shrinks are equal - some companies will benefit more than others - that's were it becomes tricky.
Obviously they are phasing out larger geometries :o>
do you really believe they (200mm) will come back - I do not think so... zero fix cost on old depreciated equipment does not cut it - it's about variable cost
From: etchmeister 3/12/2009 12:32:10 AM
of 23775
According to most recent SICAS report (posted by Cary) wafer starts took quite a dump - in particular 200mm wafer starts. |
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| From: etchmeister | 4/30/2009 2:11:40 PM | | | | | | The trend does not appear increasing aquisition rather than "vertical colaboration and integration" where different suppliers work very closely together to provide a superior product while maintaining their autonomy - that very different from AMAT's total solution approach; total solution is dead anyway.
Varian and Soitec Collaborate on the Development of a New High Current Implanter for Future Silicon-On-Insulator Production Requirements
* On Thursday April 30, 2009, 9:53 am EDT
*
Buzz up!
* Print
Related:
* Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc.
GLOUCESTER, MA--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 30, 2009 -- Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. ("Varian Semiconductor") (NasdaqGS:VSEA - News) today announced that they have entered into a collaboration with Soitec (EURONEXT: SOI), the world's leading supplier of silicon-on-insulator (SOI) substrates. The two companies are collaborating on the development and qualification of a new high current implanter to be used in Soitec's patented Smart Cut(TM) technology for the production requirements of upcoming generations of SOI wafers.
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{"s" : "vsea","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""}
The Smart Cut technology used to manufacture SOI substrates exploits ion implantation, wafer bonding and atomic level splitting. Ion implantation weakens the silicon crystal at an extremely precise depth and acts as an atomic scalpel, lifting off a thin layer from the donor substrate and placing it onto a different substrate.
The VIISta Single Wafer High Current implanter from Varian has proven, dual-magnet technology that minimizes defectivity and maximizes yield. Additionally, the use of ribbon beam technology provides productivity, cost-of-ownership and uniformity advantages for the splitting and layer transfer processes used in the Smart Cut technology.
"Soitec is committed to meeting the industry's requirements for the highest quality engineered substrates. Our collaboration with the leading supplier of ion implant equipment is key for us to meet the most advanced requirements in terms of uniformity, especially for fully depleted applications at the 22 nm node," says Paul Boudre, Chief Operating Officer of the Soitec Group.
Gary Dickerson, Chief Executive Officer of Varian, said, "We are looking forward to working together with Soitec to enable future device scaling with our dual-magnet ribbon beam technology. Through this collaboration we have the opportunity to add a whole new growth market to our portfolio of applications."
About Varian Semiconductor:
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates is the leading supplier of ion implant equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, enabling them to pack more, higher performing transistors into computer chips that are revolutionizing the electronics industry. Varian Semiconductor's products are used by chip manufacturers worldwide to produce high-performance semiconductor devices. Customers have made Varian Semiconductor the market leader in ion implant because of its architecturally superior products that lower their costs and improve their productivity. The Company has ranked #1 in the VLSI Research Customer Satisfaction Survey 11 times over the last 12 years. Varian Semiconductor operates globally and is headquartered in Gloucester, Massachusetts. More information can be found on Varian Semiconductor's web site at www.vsea.com.
About Soitec:
Soitec is the world's leading supplier of engineered substrates for advanced microelectronics. The Group produces a wide range of advanced materials, especially silicon-on-insulator (SOI) wafers based on its Smart Cut(TM) technology -- the first high-volume application for this proprietary technology. SOI is currently seen as the platform of the future, paving the way to higher-performance, faster, and more economical chips.
Soitec currently produces over 80% of the worldwide market for SOI wafers. Headquartered at Bernin in France, with two high-volume production units on site, Soitec also has offices in the US, Japan, and Taiwan, and a new production site is in the process of customers' qualification in Singapore.
The Group has two other divisions: Picogiga International at Les Ulis in Paris and Tracit Technologies in Bernin. Picogiga is specialized in the development and manufacture of engineered substrates, from group III-V epitaxial semiconductor wafers and gallium nitride (GaN) wafers to composite substrates for the manufacture of high-frequency electronics and optoelectronic devices. Tracit is specialized in thin-film layer transfer technologies, used to manufacture engineered substrates for power ICs and microsystems, as well as generic circuit transfer technology for applications such as image sensors and 3D integration. Shares for the Soitec Group are listed on Euronext Paris. More information is available at www.soitec.com
Soitec, Smart Cut, and UNIBOND are trademarks of S.O.I.TEC Silicon On Insulator Technologies.
Note: This press release contains forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. For this purpose, statements concerning the industry outlook, expected product plans, market conditions, Varian Semiconductor's investment in new product and application development, and any statements using the terms "believes," "anticipates," "will," "expects," "plans" or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements are: volatility in the semiconductor equipment industry; intense competition in the semiconductor equipment industry; Varian Semiconductor's dependence on a small number of customers; fluctuations in Varian Semiconductor's quarterly operating results; Varian Semiconductor's transition to new products; Varian Semiconductor's exposure to risks of operating internationally; uncertain protection of Varian Semiconductor's patent and other proprietary rights; Varian Semiconductor's reliance on a limited group of suppliers; Varian Semiconductor's ability to manage potential growth, decline and strategic transactions; Varian Semiconductor's reliance on one primary manufacturing facility; and Varian Semiconductor's dependence on certain key personnel. These and other important risk factors that may affect actual results are discussed in detail under the caption "Risk Factors" in Varian Semiconductor's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended October 3, 2008 and in other reports filed by Varian Semiconductor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Varian Semiconductor cannot guarantee any future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement. Varian Semiconductor undertakes no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this release. |
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| To: etchmeister who wrote (1878) | 4/30/2009 5:32:46 PM | | From: cluka | | | | From Briefing.com
4:22PM Varian Semi beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line (VSEA) 25.59 +1.94 : Reports Q2 (Mar) loss of $0.27 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.28); revenues fell 75.0% year/year to $63.8 mln vs the $65.4 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $60-70 mln vs. $69.37 mln consensus. Co says, "The 2009 economic environment remains challenging. However, for Varian we also see 2009 as a year of great opportunity as we invest in new product and application development and we see early, positive market acceptance. Third quarter revenue should be between $60 and $70 mln. We expect to have a pre-tax loss of approximately $19 mln in the third quarter, an improvement of $4.6 mln from the second quarter. This pre-tax loss includes non-cash charges of approximately $9.2 mln for depreciation and equity compensation expense. We expect a net loss of $19 mln in the third quarter. We expect to reduce third quarter operating expenses by approximately $2.7 mln from the second quarter, including a $1.6 mln reduction in restructuring expense."
Not that any of the companies in the sector came out with stellar earnings but VSEA's are uglier than most and guidance sucks.
VSEA has higher market cap than NVLS and 2X CYMI. From the revenue run rate perspective that just makes no sense. NVLS in my view is very overpriced which makes VSEA just silly overpriced. I expect it will get clipped tomorrow but it did not get to be this overpriced by big holders selling so who knows. |
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