From: etchmeister | 4/21/2009 11:48:05 PM | | | | DRAM supply to spot market shrink significantly to support DDR2 1Gb price up further (BTW there is plenty of crude but they decided to shut down refineries in CA...)
Published Apr.21 2009, 17:23 PM (GMT+8)
DRAM supply to spot market shrink significantly to support DDR2 1Gb price up further
DRAM spot prices have moved up more than 15% from the average $0.95 on April 13th to $1.13 on April 16th after the marketers learned that the major eTT suppliers Powerchip and Elpida won’t release DRAM chips to spot market in the short term and tried to accumulate their inventory higher. The 1Gb eTT chip average price has even reached $1.2 on April 16th.
A news circuited in DRAM spot market last week that Elpida has decided to stop the shipment to spot market including the biggest customer, Kingston and Powerchip also will limit the volume shipped to lowest level to the spot market till June ’09 and it boosted the speculation demand in the spot market and pushed the 1Gb eTT spot prices to reach $1.2.
According to DRAMeXchange’s survey, the market share of Elpida and Powerchip in spot market accounts near 60% including their shipment to the biggest DRAM module house, Kingston Technology and marketers believe that the further limit of shipment to spot market can help the DDR2 1Gb price moving up to $1.5 in June or Q309. Though Hynix and Nanya will still release chips to spot market but the volume is expected to be low as well in order to keep the upward momentum.
DDR2 contract prices moves up 6% -10% in 2H April
DRAM makers have claimed that they’ve successfully raised the 2H April contract prices 6% to 10% higher from the range of $16 to $18 per 2GB module to the range of $17 to $20. Meanwhile, they also admitted that they have fixed one month deal for April with a few PC OEMs customers whose prices keep unchanged. DRAM makers have targeted to move 2GB lowest price to $20 which is about$1.06/1Gb in May or June ’09. However, PC OEMs have claimed that they’ve built high inventory around 6 to 8 weeks and don’t expect a soaring price in the near term.
According to DRAMeXchange’s checking, the DRAM supply and demand has reached balance after DRAM markers cut more and more capacity. The spot prices will move up from the range of $1.0 - $1.2 to the range of $1.2 - $1.5 as the supply shrinks sharply and to lead the contract prices up toward $1.2 in Q309. |
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From: etchmeister | 4/25/2009 2:18:29 PM | | | | NVLS reported 50% of business coming from North America (probably Intel) while Lam said it was handicaped by lack of exposure to Intel and limited exposure to Toshiba. Also Lam did not see any slowdown memory moving to copper and smaller geometries - even in dire times Moore's clock keeps ticking. Sometimes the market is fast and sometimes slow - methinks "the market" has not fully comprehended Varian - some probably still make a connection to the company that makes medical equipment. One of the top picks - perhaps the coming cycle will be the "Varian Cycle". I do not to recall exactly but LRCX or NVLS stated there was no pressure with regards to ASP - need to double check. Recall the oxymoron WS analysts bitching at Intel for spending on Capex to position itself longterm while pumping up commodities - Anybody worrying abut Intel besides Moore running out of gas? all it took to pump up diesel was China games and an earthquake that created demand for diesel powered generators. oh well ashes,ashes all fall down... coming soon to you @ the Shoreline Theater
Sumitomo/Axcelis: What's next, what's possible Date: February, 2008
by James Montgomery, News Editor, Solid State Technology
Feb. 12, 2008 - Industry watchers tell WaferNEWS what likely spurred the unsolicited proposal from Sumitomo to acquire JV partner Axcelis; what's good and bad about such a combination; and how might a changed implant sector landscape be positioned for the next key period: 22nm and vertical transistors.
After what it claims was nearly two years of rebuffed approaches, Sumitomo this week launched an unusually public proposal to acquire Axcelis Technologies, its 50/50 JV partner in Japan (Sumitomo Eaton Nova, or SEN). For now, Sumitomo is waiting for an answer, while Axcelis execs say they're reviewing it (but no timeline provided). ADVERTISEMENT Middle
One of the first questions to ask is, how did this happen? Public discussions by Axcelis execs (notably quarterly conference calls) have been peppered with hints of discord for roughly two years, and even participating analysts have continuously asked about how the relationship stands.
Industry sources contacted by WaferNEWS -- Dean Freeman, research VP at Gartner, and John. O. Borland, SST editorial board advisor -- seemed to agree that SEN actually was faster to recognize the need for 300mm tools, and Borland pointed to SEN's endstation (specifically requested by Taiwanese customers) with a gyroscopic design that Axcelis eventually adopted.
But perhaps the final straw concerned Axcelis' refusal to license its Optima Imax high dose, low energy implant tool to SEN in Japan -- and in the company's latest quarterly call, execs indicated the company plans to sell the tools direct in Japan, recording sales in 2008.
"Until around 2005, Varian [Semi. Equip. Assoc.] had very little traction in Japan," Freeman noted, but single-wafer tool stumbles by Applied and lateness by Sumitomo/Axcelis allowed Varian to "walk in and pick up Toshiba and Elpida['s]" high-current business, and now can use that as a bridge to sell their medium-current offerings. Axcelis is just now "beginning to make enough inroads to pick up [...] people late to 65nm and below," he said.
Meanwhile, market dynamics also are putting pressure on a tighter relationship. The industry can't support 3-5 suppliers in each sector anymore, Freeman noted, and now it's only two or maybe three: "the 'process of record' and a competitor to keep prices down," he said. And right now, "Axcelis is the second vendor [customers use] to leverage Varian over the next few years."
Speculating if the deal is approved, both Freeman and Borland acknowledged several questions remain, including the proposed management structure -- to what extent Sumitomo would take a dominant role, how they would (re)structure their Japan JV operation, how Japan's Sumitomo would manage US-based Axcelis (e.g. with domestic leadership or sending Japan execs overseas), etc.
But the main concern facing Axcelis and SEN/Sumitomo would be whether, as a combined and streamlined entity, they can push forward with best-of-breed technology to regain share against market leader Varian. Axcelis/SEN "had an extremely loyal customer base," up until those customers needed the single-wafer high-current implant technology that the two suppliers couldn't yet provide, Freeman noted. "Can they win that customer base back? Or because of their failure to execute, have they lost it forever - or until Varian trips?"
The answer may come at the next inflection point for this sector, around the 32nm-22nm node (logic), and the introduction of vertical transistors, where "implant is very critical," Freeman noted. Chipmakers will have to choose between plasma or beamline implant, and the game will be who has the better tool platform for it.
In terms of beamline, Borland thinks that, right now, Axcelis may have a leg up with its spot-beam technology vs. Varian's ribbon broadbeam technology, with nonuniformity the key differentiator. In the next three years or so (~22nm), he told WaferNEWS, chipmakers will have a choice: "either switch vendors or switch dopant species" (currently phosphide, which offers better activation than arsenic, and maybe later antimony). Similar to their choice to move from batch to single-wafer platforms, it's going to be a decision based on device yields, and that's the only way he sees a platform switch taking place.
Beamline aside, Axcelis/SEN may have an advantage in plasma as well. Borland pointed out that SEN sells a plasma implant tool in Japan's TFT market, so it could apply that knowledge to similar technology for semiconductors. "It requires much more control, and means adding hardware and software, but the basic concept is the same," he sad.
Freeman added that a formal Axcelis/SEN combination may not be the end of this story, noting that economies-of-scale in this industry now means companies really need ~$200M in annual sales to even play in niche markets/regions, and more like $500M-$1B to be a significant global player. The question is, would ACLS/SEN be satisfied as a niche player, or would it want to grow bigger -- and do it organically or inorganically? The latter opens up intriguing growth possibilities, he noted, speculating future attractive combinations with oft-rumored industry consolidators like TEL, NVLS, or LAM -- or even ASMI, whose shareholders continue to push for a split of its frontend and backend businesses, and which lacks a presence in doping, Freeman pointed out.
So it seems there are many reasons for Axcelis and Sumitomo to formally join forces in the implant sector. But perhaps the biggest roadblock is as yet unknown. A third industry source, not tied to either company, pointed out that Sumitomo's actions are very atypical of Japanese companies, who traditionally avoid not only international M&A but also such public controversy (though also acknowledged the changing business environment where shareholder value is paramount, and foreign capital is increasingly making market inroads). Still, such a public hostile act against one's 20+year JV partner "must mean things are really bad," the source suggested, "and it's hard to see how this is going to make them better." J.M. |
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To: etchmeister who wrote (1875) | 4/25/2009 2:38:03 PM | From: cluka | | | VSEA has a terrific niche, they are best of breed and have a bright future.
That said, stock price is certainly reflecting the premium, it is apples to apples the most expensive stock among semi equips.
VSEA business is capacity driven. You have to be foolish to think that any segment of the Semi industry starts adding to capacity. Transition to smaller geometry will happen but not on the large scale and not in DRAM in the near term.
I agree that longer term VSEA is a solid holding, short term, I would short into earnings at $24+. |
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To: cluka who wrote (1876) | 4/27/2009 2:07:47 AM | From: etchmeister | | | VSEA business is capacity driven. I suppose that is not Varian specific
You have to be foolish to think that any segment of the Semi industry starts adding to capacity. Transition to smaller geometry will happen but not on the large scale and not in DRAM in the near term. I always like to look at it from different angles - I also believe that not all shrinks are equal - some companies will benefit more than others - that's were it becomes tricky. Obviously they are phasing out larger geometries :o> do you really believe they (200mm) will come back - I do not think so... zero fix cost on old depreciated equipment does not cut it - it's about variable cost
From: etchmeister 3/12/2009 12:32:10 AM of 23775 According to most recent SICAS report (posted by Cary) wafer starts took quite a dump - in particular 200mm wafer starts. |
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From: etchmeister | 4/30/2009 2:11:40 PM | | | | The trend does not appear increasing aquisition rather than "vertical colaboration and integration" where different suppliers work very closely together to provide a superior product while maintaining their autonomy - that very different from AMAT's total solution approach; total solution is dead anyway. Varian and Soitec Collaborate on the Development of a New High Current Implanter for Future Silicon-On-Insulator Production Requirements
* On Thursday April 30, 2009, 9:53 am EDT
* Buzz up! * Print
Related:
* Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc.
GLOUCESTER, MA--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 30, 2009 -- Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. ("Varian Semiconductor") (NasdaqGS:VSEA - News) today announced that they have entered into a collaboration with Soitec (EURONEXT: SOI), the world's leading supplier of silicon-on-insulator (SOI) substrates. The two companies are collaborating on the development and qualification of a new high current implanter to be used in Soitec's patented Smart Cut(TM) technology for the production requirements of upcoming generations of SOI wafers. Related Quotes Symbol Price Change VSEA 24.96 +1.31 Chart for Varian Semiconductor Equipment {"s" : "vsea","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""}
The Smart Cut technology used to manufacture SOI substrates exploits ion implantation, wafer bonding and atomic level splitting. Ion implantation weakens the silicon crystal at an extremely precise depth and acts as an atomic scalpel, lifting off a thin layer from the donor substrate and placing it onto a different substrate.
The VIISta Single Wafer High Current implanter from Varian has proven, dual-magnet technology that minimizes defectivity and maximizes yield. Additionally, the use of ribbon beam technology provides productivity, cost-of-ownership and uniformity advantages for the splitting and layer transfer processes used in the Smart Cut technology.
"Soitec is committed to meeting the industry's requirements for the highest quality engineered substrates. Our collaboration with the leading supplier of ion implant equipment is key for us to meet the most advanced requirements in terms of uniformity, especially for fully depleted applications at the 22 nm node," says Paul Boudre, Chief Operating Officer of the Soitec Group.
Gary Dickerson, Chief Executive Officer of Varian, said, "We are looking forward to working together with Soitec to enable future device scaling with our dual-magnet ribbon beam technology. Through this collaboration we have the opportunity to add a whole new growth market to our portfolio of applications."
About Varian Semiconductor:
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates is the leading supplier of ion implant equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, enabling them to pack more, higher performing transistors into computer chips that are revolutionizing the electronics industry. Varian Semiconductor's products are used by chip manufacturers worldwide to produce high-performance semiconductor devices. Customers have made Varian Semiconductor the market leader in ion implant because of its architecturally superior products that lower their costs and improve their productivity. The Company has ranked #1 in the VLSI Research Customer Satisfaction Survey 11 times over the last 12 years. Varian Semiconductor operates globally and is headquartered in Gloucester, Massachusetts. More information can be found on Varian Semiconductor's web site at www.vsea.com.
About Soitec:
Soitec is the world's leading supplier of engineered substrates for advanced microelectronics. The Group produces a wide range of advanced materials, especially silicon-on-insulator (SOI) wafers based on its Smart Cut(TM) technology -- the first high-volume application for this proprietary technology. SOI is currently seen as the platform of the future, paving the way to higher-performance, faster, and more economical chips.
Soitec currently produces over 80% of the worldwide market for SOI wafers. Headquartered at Bernin in France, with two high-volume production units on site, Soitec also has offices in the US, Japan, and Taiwan, and a new production site is in the process of customers' qualification in Singapore.
The Group has two other divisions: Picogiga International at Les Ulis in Paris and Tracit Technologies in Bernin. Picogiga is specialized in the development and manufacture of engineered substrates, from group III-V epitaxial semiconductor wafers and gallium nitride (GaN) wafers to composite substrates for the manufacture of high-frequency electronics and optoelectronic devices. Tracit is specialized in thin-film layer transfer technologies, used to manufacture engineered substrates for power ICs and microsystems, as well as generic circuit transfer technology for applications such as image sensors and 3D integration. Shares for the Soitec Group are listed on Euronext Paris. More information is available at www.soitec.com
Soitec, Smart Cut, and UNIBOND are trademarks of S.O.I.TEC Silicon On Insulator Technologies.
Note: This press release contains forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. For this purpose, statements concerning the industry outlook, expected product plans, market conditions, Varian Semiconductor's investment in new product and application development, and any statements using the terms "believes," "anticipates," "will," "expects," "plans" or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements are: volatility in the semiconductor equipment industry; intense competition in the semiconductor equipment industry; Varian Semiconductor's dependence on a small number of customers; fluctuations in Varian Semiconductor's quarterly operating results; Varian Semiconductor's transition to new products; Varian Semiconductor's exposure to risks of operating internationally; uncertain protection of Varian Semiconductor's patent and other proprietary rights; Varian Semiconductor's reliance on a limited group of suppliers; Varian Semiconductor's ability to manage potential growth, decline and strategic transactions; Varian Semiconductor's reliance on one primary manufacturing facility; and Varian Semiconductor's dependence on certain key personnel. These and other important risk factors that may affect actual results are discussed in detail under the caption "Risk Factors" in Varian Semiconductor's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended October 3, 2008 and in other reports filed by Varian Semiconductor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Varian Semiconductor cannot guarantee any future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement. Varian Semiconductor undertakes no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this release. |
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To: etchmeister who wrote (1878) | 4/30/2009 5:32:46 PM | From: cluka | | | From Briefing.com
4:22PM Varian Semi beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line (VSEA) 25.59 +1.94 : Reports Q2 (Mar) loss of $0.27 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.28); revenues fell 75.0% year/year to $63.8 mln vs the $65.4 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $60-70 mln vs. $69.37 mln consensus. Co says, "The 2009 economic environment remains challenging. However, for Varian we also see 2009 as a year of great opportunity as we invest in new product and application development and we see early, positive market acceptance. Third quarter revenue should be between $60 and $70 mln. We expect to have a pre-tax loss of approximately $19 mln in the third quarter, an improvement of $4.6 mln from the second quarter. This pre-tax loss includes non-cash charges of approximately $9.2 mln for depreciation and equity compensation expense. We expect a net loss of $19 mln in the third quarter. We expect to reduce third quarter operating expenses by approximately $2.7 mln from the second quarter, including a $1.6 mln reduction in restructuring expense."
Not that any of the companies in the sector came out with stellar earnings but VSEA's are uglier than most and guidance sucks.
VSEA has higher market cap than NVLS and 2X CYMI. From the revenue run rate perspective that just makes no sense. NVLS in my view is very overpriced which makes VSEA just silly overpriced. I expect it will get clipped tomorrow but it did not get to be this overpriced by big holders selling so who knows. |
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To: etchmeister who wrote (1871) | 4/30/2009 9:11:42 PM | From: etchmeister | | | it's mind blowing (and no surprise at the same time) how little interest this company draws....amazing that savitz still has a job - on the other side no surprise at all but eventually it might sink in... sooner or later varian A Rare High-Tech Company With Unassailable Market Position 1 comment by: The Manual of Ideas December 19, 2008 | about stocks: VSEA The Manual of Ideas Follow 123 Followers 0 Following
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Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates (VSEA) is the undisputed leader in a small but important segment of the semiconductor cap equipment industry. Several years ago, the company positioned itself to take advantage of an industry shift to single wafer implanters. It gained market share as a result and moved closer to a quasi-monopolistic position (only remaining credible competitor is struggling Axcelis). The implanter segment has high barriers to entry and should exhibit mid to high single-digit growth in the long term. While the industry is undergoing a cyclical downturn, we believe Varian shares offer compelling value.
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Varian is a semiconductor capital equipment maker and the leading producer of ion implantation equipment.
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
FYE September 30 2006 2007 2008
% of revenue by geography: North America 22% 22% 22% Asia Pacific 67% 71% 70% Europe 11% 7% 8%
Revenue growth by geography: North America 20% 45% -21% Asia Pacific 20% 53% -22% Europe 39% -10% -12% D revenue 22% 44% -21% D unit shipments of tools 33% 51% n/a D deferred revenue (period end) 6% 10% -41%
% of revenue by type: Product 88% 91% 90% Service 11% 8% 10% Royalty 1% 1% 0%
% of shipments by market: Memory 51% 70% n/a Logic 19% 14% n/a Foundry 30% 16% n/a
% of shipments by wafer size: 300 mm 75% 91% n/a 200 mm 25% 9% n/a
Top 10 customers (% of revenue) 63% 72% n/a
VARIAN’S SHARE OF GLOBAL IMPLANTER MARKET1 Market Size Varian Market Share ($ in millions) CY06 CY07 CY06 CY07
Medium current $414 $454 53% 57%
High current 720 672 46% 78% High energy 230 147 17% 13%
Ultra high dose na 64 na 100% Overall $1,364 $1,337 43% 65%
1Source: Garter Dataquest, VLSI Research, Company.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
* #1 in $1 billion implantation equipment market, with share up from 43% in CY06 to 65% in CY07. Varian has grown share—and is likely to continue to do so—in the largest segments while maintaining 100% of the fast-growing, ultra high-dose market. * Gained high-current share due to industry shift from batch ion to single wafer implanters. Varian began developing the technology in 1994, giving it large lead over Applied Materials (AMAT) and Axcelis (ACLS). AMAT was effectively forced to exit the high-current segment in 2007, with Varian benefiting. * Large barriers to entry due to role of patents and technical expertise. Implanters weigh 20+ tonnes and sell for roughly $4 million each. The industry has seen no credible new entrants in decades. * PLAD plasma tool expands addressable market through creation of ultra high-dose segment, with sales potentially surpassing $100 million in FY09. * Little risk of commoditization, due to advances in implanter technology and changes in wafer and chip size. Implantation has become a higher-value step in semi production, giving Varian more pricing power. * Gary Dickerson (50) joined Varian as CEO in 2004, having served for ten years in roles at KLA-Tencor, including as Group VP, EVP, and COO. * $209 million of net cash and short-term securities. * Repurchased $179 million of stock in FY08, $427 million in FY07 and $109 million in FY06.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS
* Sharp drop-off in business, driven by drop in capital spending, particularly by manufacturers of DRAM devices. Revenue fell 37% and 52% y-y in the June and September quarter, respectively. The company expects to post a small loss in 1Q09. * Cyclical business, dependent on semi makers’ capacity investments, which exhibit large volatility (particularly in the case of memory manufacturers). * Axcelis may become strong competitor if bought. Sumitomo Heavy Industries made a hostile bid for Axcelis in February, but shelved its proposal after Axcelis rejected a sweetened $616 million offer. ACLS now has a market value of $54 million, practically crying out for an activist to come in and force a sale.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS ($mn) MV EV EV/Rev P/TB 08 P/E 09 P/E ACLS 64 97 .3x 0.2x n/m n/m AMAT 13,725 11,827 1.5x 2.3x 13x 9x KLAC 3,067 2,505 1.1x 1.7x 36x 14x LRCX 2,248 1,488 .7x 1.6x 138x 15x VSEA 1,269 1,063 1.3x 2.5x 250x 22x
MAJOR HOLDERS
CEO Dickerson <1% ¦ Other insiders 2% ¦ Fidelity 15% ¦ Oppenheimer Funds 10% ¦ Wellington 7% ¦ Turner 3%
THE MANUAL OF IDEAS RATINGS
VALUE: Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? 4 stars
MANAGEMENT: Capable and properly incentivized? 4 stars
FINANCIAL STRENGTH: Solid balance sheet? 5 stars
MOAT: Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? 4 stars
EARNINGS MOMENTUM: Fundamentals improving? 2 stars
MACRO: Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? 2 stars
EXPLOSIVENESS: 5%+ probability of 5x upside in one year? 3 stars
Disclaimer: Copyright 2008 by BeyondProxy LLC. BeyondProxy and its affiliates may have positions in and may make purchases or sales of the securities discussed in this report. It is the policy of all Related Persons to allow a full trading day to elapse after the publication of this report before purchases or sales of any securities discussed herein are made. No Related Person held a position in securities discussed in this report as of the date of publication. Use of this report and its content is governed by the Terms of Use described in detail at manualofideas.com. |
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To: etchmeister who wrote (1873) | 4/30/2009 11:18:39 PM | From: etchmeister | | | As pixel sizes and the number of pixels continue to increase, CMOS image sensor manufacturers have significant challenges in driving improvement in picture quality. One of the main problems with picture quality is the existence of dark current or leakage current. Using PLAD for sidewall doping of the trench structures on CMOS image sensors has been shown to reduce dark current. Customers have also seen improvement in picture quality from additional new PLAD applications. We also have an opportunity to drive further penetration of our VIISta beam line products into the CMOS image sensor market. One of our largest customers in FY '09 is a Japanese CMOS image sensor account where we have significant penetration in high current and high energy. seekingalpha.com |
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To: etchmeister who wrote (1881) | 4/30/2009 11:32:37 PM | From: etchmeister | | | It is NOT a niche, (implant)applications relate/interact with litho as well as etch
Another large CapEx customer is using Varian high current in R&D as development tool of record to freeze the first pattern in a double patterning lithography process. We see potential for increased adoption of the implant-based litho applications for 32-nanometer and below technologies. |
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From: etchmeister | 5/1/2009 1:59:16 PM | | | | LRCX, NVLS and Varin pretty consistent in assessing current situation and outlook. Actually I felt VSEA had the most positive bias towards the future. Supposedly break even s only on the order of $85 million and upgade business has very fat margins...what's annoying about VSEA is the fact that certain funds strictly use it a as trading vehicle but rediculous volume can move the stock n either direction
Gary Dickerson
I think the other thing on the tool utilization, we track tools turned off. And in the last couple of months, there has been a significant change in that metric.
Robert Halliday
A lot of tools have been turned back on.
Gary Dickerson
Many tools turned back on.
Suresh Balaraman - ThinkEquity
Are there any comments on the pricing environment? Are you guys subject to the kind of severity and discounting as many of your other peers in the capital equipment land, given that you have limited competition?
Gary Dickerson
I don't think that that had unusual pricing pressure this time. I think our products are pretty valuable products and our position is pretty good with the customers.
Robert Halliday
Right now, who knows for sure what will happen. But the margin forecast looks incrementally positive going forward.
seekingalpha.com |
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