| To: Berk who wrote (1862) | 10/26/2007 10:39:46 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Dick,
very volatile morning.
Down 6.00 and then down 2.00 large exchange of money.
Cohu getting clipped on a "delay of order from large customer.
It seems there is a pushout of Capex - perhaps ramp for Christmas has been accomplished and a slower capex for 08 is being stretched out.
It has impacted most of webcasts I've listened to.
That being said - it really does look good for all box makers and handheld wireless is also on fire.
Game boxes will be a bumper crop and LCD tv's have price cuts.
Hard to find a segment that isn't growing and going strong.
It seems that pricing pressure is opening up volume and leading edge will become justified as enduser demand justifies the expenditures - albeit after a show me attitude is proven.
Not a bad scenario - reminds me of 98.
Sox showing support @ November 06 (449) and Jan 06 (456) support levels.Not sure if we need to revisit July 06 low of 384?
Almost all 200sma averages violated except the current battle of Vsea today @ 41.46 (todays low of 41.50).
Still hard to figure a recession with 30 mortgages @ 6.09 and rates low.
Recessions come with rising rates.
Tech transitioning into leadership role if we can hold this support.
Semi widget makers doing great.Semi makers doing great if leading in technology.
SCE deferred from party - awaiting bleeding edge Capex implementation.
Whats new?
IATL - It always takes longer!!
Oh yea - gap at 45 has been met.
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (1863) | 10/26/2007 10:53:19 AM | | From: Berk | | | | Yes, and did you notice that no gap has been created on this down move!
Another note: I wonder if this is the "sell the best, last" move in the market. VSEA has been the best performer in the past year or more and value buyers are starting to take positions in some of the other SCE stocks (KLIC and CYMI for instance). |
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| To: Berk who wrote (1864) | 10/26/2007 10:14:58 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Dick,
Vsea just has respect as a market share gainer.
I don't buy this sub prime crap.
Don't get me wrong there's plenty of losses to happen.
I just don't think it will impact chip or chip equipment companies,
Since the equity decline of 01 everybodies uncle has been flipping tax free the next lot/house.
The flippers have been squeezed and many were forced to pay inflated prices just to buy a home.
It will be a decade before prices resume - sound familiar?
Vsea has killed Acls.
Acls and Intt are trading at book value.
That's a sign of wonderful bottom action.
Aapl Rimm,Intc,Msft are all booming from global enduser demand.
I remember enduser demand being written off as forever gone, in 2001 - just like the housing supply will never get absorbed.
Merril is writing off like Csco did - look who's got it better than ever?
Innovations like VM ware IPO's.
The worm is turning my windy city friend.
We can be patient and don't ever look down on a stock that get's institutional support at the 200,when others have broken down.
Those that resist a general market selloff - are the next huge leaders.
Keep in mind the widget makers are breaking out and leading.Some selective chip makers are winning and SCE will get their day in the sun in 08.
Natural lags within the food chain - but enduser demand is driving it all.
This market will collapse when rates go up,not down.
The only thing that has happened is the fed has popped the realestate inflation cycle - EXACTLY WHAT INTENDED TO DO.
Now it is time for a rotation.
It has been a long wait!!
I'm ready.
Bob
I think Vsea is best of class.
Just wished I knew that in 01 <smile>, |
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| To: Berk who wrote (1868) | 10/27/2007 10:10:29 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Dick,
Most of the SCE charts are all ugly.
Just as enduser demand is really robust,there seems to be pushouts of capacity.
Perhaps the semi's are sick of pricing cuts and want some pricing power.
A lack of Capex and deferring the next technology step will boost prices as demand oustrips production.
So far Intel and Sandisk have indicated alocation shortages possible this Q4.
Much reminds me of 97-98.The market peaked in September of 97 and didn't reverse until October of 08.
If that replays we'll see a very good market in next July /August in the SCE field.
Then again maybe a rate cut will boost this negative subprime crud I'm tired of hearing about.
Then again it is nice to see housiing,mortgage originators and some Financials give tech a look outside of the dog house.<Smile>
Bob
P.S. I'm in awe of Henry's capabilities. |
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| From: etchmeister | 8/12/2008 11:10:53 PM | | | | | | Varian added 7 additional evaluation tools that eventually will result in revenue and more important FOLLOW UP orders; there is a total of 14 eval units out there that all will eventually bear fruits - it's mind blowing (and no surprise at the same time) how little interest this company draws - they are all into semi penny stocks - LOL
SSD makers finally see growth app
Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(08/12/2008 1:36 PM EDT)
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- For some time, suppliers of solid-state drives (SSDs) have been searching for a high-volume market for their products.
Notebooks, servers and other systems are among the potential high-volume markets for SSDs, but cost has been a major stumbling block. Hard drives remain cheaper and more reliable, some argue.
However, vendors may have finally found a ''killer application'' for SSDs, which are based on NAND flash memories. The ultra mobile PC, netbook and related sub-notebook segments could become a big driver for SSDs, said Doreet Oren, director of product marketing for SSDs at SanDisk Corp., during a presentation at the Flash Memory Summit here on Tuesday (Aug. 12).
In this segment, the SSD market could hit 33 million units by 2012, according to Gartner Inc. Ultra mobile systems sell from $250-to-$600. Acer, Asus and Intel are among the pioneers in ultra mobiles, which use SSDs.
SSD capacities in ultra mobiles range from 4-to-6 gigabytes. Many of the early models use single-level cell (SLC) NAND technology. Going forward, an 8-GB drive based on multi-level cell (MLC) NAND devices is expected to be the mainstream technology for netbooks, said Don Larson, product line manager at Intel Corp., during a presentation at the event. "Maybe 16-gigabytes [will be feasible] next year,'' he said.
There are still issues with SSDs in general. Prices for SSDs remain more expensive than traditional hard disk drives, SanDisk's Oren said. "SSD costs are coming down,'' thanks to die shrinks, three-bit-per-cell (x3) and related technologies, she said.
Other improvements are being made with SSDs. ''We seeing improvements in controller technology,'' said Todd Dinkelman, senior applications engineer at of Micron Technology Inc. ''Early shortcomings for reliability and endurance are being overcome.''
According to Dinkelman, there are several design considerations with SSDs: bit error rate; raw bit error rate; uncorrectable bit error rate system; and meantime between failures. y |
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| From: etchmeister | 9/15/2008 1:42:41 PM | | | | | | Japs are throwing in the towel?
ACLS is the only single wafer implant alternative as far as I know and the trend is to replace batch - again this bad news should bode well for Varian with many eval tools out there including Japan.
(and NVLS and LRCX both chasing ACLS in resist stripping - over and over the pundits predicted consolidation in equipment sector but the the few aquisitons were very, very selective)
UPDATE 1-Axcelis says Sumitomo will not make offer, shares sink
Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:25am EDT
Sept 15 (Reuters) - Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said Japan's Sumitomo Heavy Industries (6302.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) will not make an acquisition offer at this time, sending the semiconductor equipment maker's shares to their lowest levels ever.
Axcelis was in talks with Sumitomo and private equity firm TPG Capital LP since June after they made a $616 million unsolicited takeover bid for Axcelis. In a regulatory filing, Axcelis said Sumitomo had, on Sept. 4, informed that it was placing discussions regarding the acquisition "on hold."
Axcelis also said its board is currently evaluating several refinancing plans.
Axcelis, which makes ion implantation equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, was spun off from Eaton Corp (ETN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) in 2000. Sumitomo Heavy, which makes heavy machinery, and Axcelis have a joint venture in Japan called SEN.
Shares of Axcelis lost more than half of their value and were trading down $2.34 at their life-low of $1.90. (Reporting by Purwa Naveen Raman in Bangalore; Editing by Amitha Rajan) |
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