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   Technology StocksRandom Musings of a Virgin Trader (was Dell Diary)


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To: powershred who started this subject11/2/2002 6:59:36 PM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
Holy Cowabanga.....the lessons I learned....
- No such thing as buy and hold (but I already knew that right?).
- Once there is smoke; there oughta be fire(s) ala NT, GLW, JDSU, etc...
- Money management is better than being "right".
- There is only one person that you are accountable for your decision - YOU
- Amazingly enough, despite all the turbulence....DELL has been gravitating btw the the 20's! and seems to be getting its fingers into everything else from storage to printers to handhelds...whats next? phones?

A lot has happened since Feb 2001....
- 9/11 happened and the world aint the same....
- Telco imploded; overcapacity was the blamed culprit (greed more like it)
- Scandals.....Enron was the biggest...then came Worldcom...Tyco....heck, even Martha Stewart is embroiled in an insider trading case...a lot of hurtin goin on there!
- DOW is in the 8500 level; Naz at the 1300 level; both making 5 yr lows
- Headlines are about a double dip recession; almost every news is crappy; almost everyday the market losses ground...

The best thing about this thread....kept things in perspective and definitely a humbling learning experience....bulls and bears make money...pigs get slaughtered....or everyone is a genius during a bull run....

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To: powershred who wrote (204)11/2/2002 7:16:18 PM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
VIX5 Trade...Telus; added at $13; earnings on Monday.
- INTC and CSCO have missed. DELL has been the steady Eddy...MSFT case has(?) been settled...Monday should be a boost...

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To: powershred who started this subject11/3/2002 1:46:34 PM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
Can a $853,000 loss be made up?
Lets trade like hell!
siliconinvestor.com

RULES (for my sanity!):
- Follow Mechanical B/S signals generated by VIX5; no optimization allowed after today. NO Trades by the gut!
- Book realized gains/losses in the thread! (easier said than done!).

Ooopss..
- Capital at $50K; which is what was the leftover equity of the hypothetical portfolio that lost $853K following buy and hold.
- Margin will be used.

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To: powershred who started this subject11/4/2002 11:27:06 AM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
Telus reports; expects loss to narrow from previous guidance. Stock is up to $14.65. Is $25 the fair value assuming dividend payout is re-instated to prior levels?

2001 - Cash Flow = $1798.40 stock price at $24.60
2002 - Cash Flow after 3Q = $1399.50; YE run rate s/b at $1866; stock price at $14.65 0.15 div to yield at 4%

One year GIC at 1.75%

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To: powershred who started this subject11/7/2002 12:48:38 AM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
Sold Telus at $9 for $21K return; will be shorting CSCO tomorrow...reported earnings that beat but expects next Q to be flat or down 3 to 4 %

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To: powershred who started this subject9/29/2003 11:19:54 PM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
DELL now at $34...gain of about $7 in 2 yrs from $25 or 36%...not too shaby whilst the market was volatile

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To: powershred who wrote (209)2/5/2004 12:51:44 AM
From: powershred
   of 210
 
WOW...4 yrs of consolidation....breakout could be a ride!

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