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   Technology StocksNovell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?


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To: scott blomquist who wrote ()9/3/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: Howard t Anderson
   of 42771
 
Looks like the sept 25s are hot tried to get in at 3/8s but settled for 1/2 Any ideas on the move. All I've heard is the same old rumor mill AOL INTC ect any ideas

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To: Howard t Anderson who wrote (27984)9/3/1999 12:40:00 PM
From: Loring
   of 42771
 
Just for discussion's sake, does anyone think NOVL and INTC would make a good fit?

FWIW. From The Street.com.

Semiconductors: Intel Notebook: Former Level One Chief Gets Carte Blanche to Go Shopping

By Marcy Burstiner
Staff Reporter
9/1/99 8:20 PM ET

PALM SPRINGS -- Ex-Level One CEO Robert Pepper, now a vice president of Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq) networking communications group, has a boss for the first time in 15 years. But as part of a semiconductor company sitting on $2 billion in cash, Pepper has a credit card with a very high limit for new acquisitions.

At this week's Intel Developers Forum, Intel is giving clearer signs of its intentions to become a powerhouse in the networking chips arena -- a drive that its $2.7 billion purchase of Level One in March helped to galvanize. A new chip for Internet switches and routers and a $200 million venture fund for companies using the chip are Intel's latest
strides onto the Net.

The initiative is bringing Pepper a rich bounty. Pre-Intel, Level One's acquisitions were on the $150 million level. Now Pepper's free to shop for companies in the billion-dollar range. The only problem now is that Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) has been eating up small communications companies as if they were M&Ms, leaving Pepper hard-pressed to name independent companies with attractive products.

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To: Loring who wrote (27985)9/3/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas
   of 42771
 
For discussion sake....no.

Only because these companies (INTC and CSCO) are using acquisitions to enhance their product portfolios in terms of the networking hardware they offer. They are using this approach to bolster their R&D because it seems to be cheaper to buy someone who has already invested the time, effort and vision into a new product that is selling and works as advertised.

It eliminates the "Oops" factor of bad ideas that didn't pan out and cost some $100 million plus to a company. This way there's a guarantee of return on their investment. It lessens the risks involved since INTC and CSCO transfer that risk to startups and smaller companies. They just wait around and pluck up the ones that succeed.

Novell's chief product is the Directory. That's all software based - no chips, no products. Sure you can use NDS to enhance a piece of hardware like a switch or router but it would be more cost effective to license NDS. Also, if you buy Novell for NDS, it becomes a hardware companies "proprietary" enhancement and not an open standard for hardware companies to implement in terms of supporting NDS-enabled enhancements like policy-based network management.

You can make the arguement that by buying Novell, a hardware company like CSCO or INTC would then have a "leg up" on their competition. And if say CSCO bought Novell and implemented NDS into every piece of networking hardware they owned, then perhaps they would create a de facto standard. All that would remain would be how "open" CSCO would leave NDS for further development or intergration and at what cost to other vendors would that integration be?

If those questions could be answered with definite answers and not supposition, then perhaps yes. In any case, too many "ifs" to warrant an speculation that CSCO or INTC would buy out Novell.

Peter J Strifas

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To: PJ Strifas who wrote (27986)9/3/1999 1:50:00 PM
From: Loring
   of 42771
 
A clear response, and I learned something.

Thanks.

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To: PJ Strifas who wrote (27986)9/3/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: EPS
   of 42771
 
Friday September 3, 12:37 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

ADVISORY/ Compaq Computer Corporation and
Novell, Inc. Schedule News Conference at 11 a.m.
CST, Tuesday, September 7, 1999

(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Compaq Computer Corporation and Novell, Inc. will conduct a news teleconference 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. CST, Tuesday,
September 7, to announce details of a new strategic NonStop(TM) solutions partnership.

Enrico Pesatori, Senior Vice President and Group General Manager, Enterprise Solutions and Services Group, Compaq and
Dr. Eric Schmidt, Chairman of the Board and CEO, Novell, will unveil a new, strategic Compaq NonStop(TM) initiative. This
alliance will extend the speed, reliability and security of Compaq and Novell's computing solutions on the Internet. A
question-and-answer session will follow speakers' remarks.

Members of the press and analyst communities who wish to participate in this interactive telephone call should dial
1-800-686-7549, International 212-676-5369.

-0-

What Compaq News Conference

Who -- Enrico Pesatori, Senior Vice President and Group
General Manager, Enterprise Solutions and
Services Group, Compaq Computer Corporation
-- Dr. Eric Schmidt, Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer, Novell, Inc.
-- Other Key Compaq and Novell Senior Executives

When Tuesday, September 7, 1999
10:45 a.m. CST - Media and analysts dial into
conference call
11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. CST - Press announcement
and Q&A

Phone Numbers North America: 1-800-686-7549
International: 212-676-5369

Contact:

Compaq Computer Corporation
Arch Currid
281-927-8005
arch.currid@compaq.com
or
Novell, Incorporated
John Pilmer
801-222-5109
jpilmer@novell.com
or
Shandwick International
Julie Finn
617-351-4189
jfinn@shandwick.com

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To: EPS who wrote (27988)9/3/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Bryan C. Simpson
   of 42771
 
Microsoft/NSA security hole

reading is interesting....sounds like they have a product they are working on. Click on the Headline, then the second bullet.

cryptonym.com

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To: PJ Strifas who wrote (27986)9/3/1999 5:00:00 PM
From: The Coz
   of 42771
 
PJ Strifas. Could Intel get into the Net Appliances industry providing Directory enable chips for company and home networks, thus leveraging Novell's Technology?

I'm not much of a technical guy but I've read some piece about the potential of Novell and Sun' Jini technology in the appliance arena. Intel may feel interested in the new emerging market.

Could that be a reason for a company like Intel to be interested in acquiring NOVL?

What do you think?

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To: The Coz who wrote (27990)9/3/1999 5:51:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas
   of 42771
 
Hello!

In that scenario perhaps Intel would be more interested in grabbing some companies who will be/are designed and manufacturing the new chips or supporting chipsets for that type of technology. Or even companies providing supporting hardware for networked appliances like motherboards, expansion boards or even other device specific hardware like PC Cards, next generation Input/Output sub-systems etc.

See, what is meant by making hardware NDS-aware is that some hardware (no all) has built-in software mechinisms. If a company were to take their software and make it capable of using NDS information, it would enhance the product greatly. This is what CSCO, LU, Nortel et al are doing right now with some/all of their products. It's rather nice to see they are at least starting to realize the potential in NDS.

We will start to see more interesting interations of hardware which will greatly change the way some devices work because of NDS. Things like switches and routers for example and even voice communications can add policy-based management features which would be well out of the scope of what is being done today.

Also, what Compaq and Dell (and NEC) are doing is creating function-specific "servers" which are dubbed network appliances. These machines still function in the same manner in which a regular NetWare server would only that it's been optimized for a specific function (web caching) and to the hardware which it's built upon. I'm sure things like PBXs and voice switching circuits as well as routers could benefit from NDS as well.

Now, I'm not saying that it's a definite NO answer to Intel moving in and acquiring NOVL for the NDS technology but think of the price tag! NOVL's market cap alone would be far above their $1 Billion range of acquisitions. When you factor in a premium for buying a company of Novell's size it could prove inhibiting.

Right now, it would be more prudent to license NDS, create or enhance their products with NDS in mind and WHEN these NDS-enabled products begin to become more prevalent (from many vendors) then Novell will become the Golden Goose.

See, NDS becomes the key to making disparate networking equipment interoperable thereby making NDS indispensible. At that stage, Novell's price tag becomes much more palatable to many of these larger hardware companies like CSCO and/or Intel.

For them to go in a buy out Novell now would be a great leap of faith that other vendors would continue to develop their products with NDS capabilities. Or that they could woo other vendors into joining in with them via strategic partnerships/alliances to co-develop NDS interoperability.

Peter J Strifas

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To: PJ Strifas who wrote (27991)9/3/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: Loring
   of 42771
 
PJ: To take another tack, it would be very helpful to me and others on this Board to understand the weaknesses in NOVL's strategy of making NDS paramount in its product mix. I'm sure there is more than one pitfall on the horizon, altho you'd never know it from all the rah-rah on the Yahoo! board.

Care to take a shot at it?

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To: Loring who wrote (27992)9/3/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Sidney Street
   of 42771
 
Following up on Loring's questions about potential pitfalls, has anyone seen any good projections of revenues and earning s by segment if not product by product? I'm in, but I have an old fashioned affinity for earnings. I'm assuming the NetWare and GroupWise lines hold their own but don't provide big earnings growth.

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