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   Biotech / MedicalOcular Sciences (OCLR)

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To: dragonpawn who wrote (12)6/10/1999 8:39:00 AM
From: EyeDrMike
   of 36
If everyone in the country decided tomorrow to have laser surgery, it would take 10 years just to build the centers needed.

Hope there is another topic on which you can speak on intelligently.

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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (13)6/10/1999 10:24:00 AM
From: dragonpawn
   of 36
The trend is toward laser eye surgery, contact lens is going down the
drain. It will not happen overnight, but the future is bleak.

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To: dragonpawn who wrote (14)6/10/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: KM
   of 36
I daytraded this stock today. Never heard of it before. Very interesting action. Huge volume (about 10x normal, I think), had very negative money flow in the beginning, which reversed and ended up quite nicely.

Still, if I were long this stock, I'd be looking for the exit. Lots of others were. I bet this price action will interest professional short sellers.

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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (13)6/10/1999 8:26:00 PM
From: Alan Villalon
   of 36
I have been following VISX, the leader in eye surgery, and they stock is definitely doing well on the the increase in eye surgeries every year. However, DRAGONPAWN's remarks are quite unfounded. Just because eye surgeries are the latest craze, that doesn't mean OCLR is doomed. The growth area is laser surgery but the value play may be OCLR.

History shows that companies are able to reinvent themselves given any circumstances. OCLR has several advantages over laser surgery: 1. contacts are relatively cheap compared to several thousand's spent on laser surgery 2. it has a vast distribution network and market share that has become household name in the eye market 3. Not every city can offer laser surgery because of cost and population constraints (many big cities only have 1 or 2 laser centers).

Laser surgery will experience tremendous growth in the upcoming years since it is its infancy. However, OCLR will only gradually loose market share. Hair removal via laser was the hot thing in the early 90's but you don't see every hospital or consumer dropping their razor blades to jump onto that bandwagon.

OCLR has shown to grow over 20% annually. Given the latest competition, management must find new ways to increase profits and margins. Management may be the downfall of the company, not laser surgery.

By the way, I am neither long or short OCLR. I just wanted to remark on dragonpawn's unfounded remarks.


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To: Alan Villalon who wrote (16)6/11/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike
   of 36
Clueless Investor

Did fear beat up Ocular Sciences?

By Barbara C. Costanza, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:23 PM ET Jun 11, 1999 Earnings Surprise
Short Takes

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Investors dumped shares of Ocular Sciences after the contact lens company warned of an earnings shortfall. Afterwards, analysts thought they were near-sighted.

The warning

The company (OCLR: news, msgs) warned that soft U.S. sales of its contact lenses could push earnings as much as 20 percent below analysts' expectations for the second half of the year.

The sluggish performance will cut sales by 5 percent and earnings by 10 percent in the second half of the year, said CEO Norwick Goodspeed. "Optical trends are lagging the [strong] retail trends," Goodspeed said, adding he had "no idea" why that is true. Further, he said earnings could be clipped by another 10 percent due to increased pricing pressure. See full story.

The stock dropped 4 3/4 to 14 7/8 after Wednesday's warning.

Reaction vs. reality

As analysts raced in to cut estimates, investors raced out to dump the stock. However, those same analysts believe the stock is extraordinarily cheap for several good reasons.

Today on CBS MarketWatch
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CBS MarketWatch Columns
6/11/99 5:18:14 PM ET

"Lordy lordy. Fear beat the pulp out of greed in the last few days on OCLR," noted Robert Faulkner and Chris H. Shibutani, analysts at Hambrecht & Quist. Faulkner and Shibutani concede that competition has become tight and growth has come to a halt. However, the analysts stated the company is clearly neither going out of business nor going unprofitable, and management's business execution is strong.

Take a look at the fundamentals. Revenue along with earnings has increased year-over-year since 1997. In difficult periods or a slowdown in a company's growth long-term debt can add to potential problems. But take a look at Ocular's long-term debt, it accounts for about 1 percent of the company's capital.

Look at the company's balance sheet for fiscal 1999. The company reported cash, cash equivalents and investments of about $54.7 million, with total assets of $186.1 million and total debt of $3.37 million.

SG Cowen's analyst Michael G. Mullen lower his earnings estimate for fiscal 2000 to $1.90 from $2.10 a share. However, Mullen noted he has confidence in the company's growth over the long term.

Robert W. Baird's analyst Suey Wong believes the investment is risky but the stock offers greater upside potential than downside risk. The firm cut its estimates to $1.50 and $1.80 for fiscal 1999 and 2000, from $1.70 and $2.20, respectively.

Bear Stearns analyst Rick Wise cut his estimate for 1999 to $1.50 from $1.73 and fiscal 2000 to $1.80 from $2.15 a share. In research notes,Wise said the stock may tread water for a while but stands pat on his "buy" rating.

Shares finished Friday up 5/16 at 16 1/8.

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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (17)6/15/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: Alan Villalon
   of 36
Short term and day traders are always near sighted.

The article just confirms what I said in my previous post. People reacted too hastily once they fear that momentum will dissipate. One of the things I also liked when looking at OCLR was their long term debt. I usually pick companies with very little long term debt because they can 1. take on debt in the future to fuel more growth 2. look more attractive in M&A deals 3. no interest payments on debt so there is little influence on earnings.

We have probably seen the last of investors like Dragonpawn in OCLR. If management does the right things, the people who will benefit the most are the long term investor.

Remember, long term and patient investors always benefit the most over time. In the era of day trading, people have forgotten to invest like the Buffet's and Peter Lynch's. Buy to own a company! Just my style, I prefer to know that I invested in an solid company and get more sleep at night rather than toss and turn at every earnings announcement and press release. People forget that it is natural for every facet of life to have its ups and downs.

Just my 2 cents worth....

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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (17)1/20/2000 12:37:00 PM
From: Nanchate
   of 36
Major Technical Breakout on OCLR today.
Broke a triple top at $20 (actually topped there 5x in the past) by printing $21, and broke a double top by printing $22. Technically looking very good and a safe buy here on the breakout IMO.

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To: Nanchate who wrote (19)1/20/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike
   of 36
looks good, new deals end of 1999, and so much demand, they cant keep up.

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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (20)4/10/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: SIer formerly known as Joe B.
   of 36
Still holding?

I bot a little this morning.

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To: SIer formerly known as Joe B. who wrote (21)5/7/2000 1:18:00 AM
From: Fred McCutcheon
   of 36
Wessley Jennsen has got its clearance from anti trust for the merger which should push OCLR up to the $27 level if the market sees the deal as going through. If not, a growth rate of 15+% should merit a lot more than 11x trailing earnings.

Clearly I am missing something. Can anyone help??

Fred McCutcheon

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