| To: BostonView who wrote (5) | 1/29/1999 5:11:00 PM | | From: Haolin Ni | | | |
Please read your post #2
<Better to short this pooch after the open. I did at $20.50 and $21.25. SGAI is going straight to the single digits. Just watch.>
Is it your post? |
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| To: rbarsom who wrote (7) | 2/2/1999 8:34:00 PM | | From: BostonView | | | |
Lots of unhappy customers (growth at the expense of service)...and despite this, they haven't turned a profit in over eight quarters. The prospectus tells the story.
This is a going concern, to be sure, but SGAI isn't worth a dot.com premium. It'll trade under $10 soon.
BV |
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| To: BostonView who wrote (8) | 2/3/1999 8:38:00 AM | | From: John Wilson | | | |
BV, unless I'm reading wrong, 9month eps. is .40 vs (.23) as of Sep98
This company not only has turned a profit, but at its current growth trajectory should command a hefty premium. With earnings it will soar!
The following is taken from the prospectus:
edgar-online.com
NINE MONTHS ENDED
YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, SEPTEMBER 30,
-------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1997 1998
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ----------
(IN THOUSANDS, EXCEPT PER SHARE DATA) (UNAUDITED)
STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
DATA:
Revenue:
Computer software......... $4,908 $6,551 $6,594 $5,932 $5,084 $4,417 $8,615
Computer hardware......... 13,530 11,988 13,641 7,370 8,144 6,489 9,853
Support................... 833 2,159 3,343 4,038 4,100 3,064 3,817
Services.................. 398 767 1,351 1,189 1,324 1,123 2,464
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total revenue....... 19,669 21,465 24,929 18,529 18,652 15,093 24,749
Cost of sales and services:
Computer software......... 250 1,082 808 585 1,504 1,042 1,930
Computer hardware......... 9,352 8,586 10,607 5,805 6,010 4,929 7,309
Support................... 963 1,956 2,491 3,141 3,271 2,270 2,282
Services.................. 768 727 1,016 902 1,104 805 1,607
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total cost of sales
and services...... 11,333 12,351 14,922 10,433 11,889 9,046 13,128
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Gross Profit................ 8,336 9,114 10,007 8,096 6,763 6,047 11,621
Operating expenses:
General and
administrative.......... 1,671 3,246 3,206 4,776 4,567 3,102 4,646
Research and development.. 1,929 1,609 2,166 2,254 2,011 1,444 1,638
Sales and marketing....... 410 508 523 980 1,482 1,066 1,653
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total operating
expenses.......... 4,010 5,363 5,895 8,010 8,060 5,612 7,937
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Income (loss) from
operations................ 4,326 3,751 4,112 86 (1,297) 435 3,684
Other income (expense):
Interest expense:
Interest on outstanding
debt.................... -- (39) (1,200) (1,200) (1,500) (1,050) (1,350)
Amortization of original
issue discount(1)....... -- (45) (1,378) (1,378) (680) (680) --
Interest income............. 26 50 129 42 109 84 68
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total interest
income (expense),
net............... 26 (34) (2,449) (2,536) (2,071) (1,646) (1,282)
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Net income (loss)........... $4,352 $3,717 $1,663 $(2,450) $(3,368) $(1,211) $2,402
========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ==========
Net income (loss) per share:
Basic..................... $0.83 $0.71 $0.32 $(0.47) $(0.64) $(0.23) $0.46
========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ==========
Diluted................... $0.83 $0.49 $0.32 $(0.47) $(0.64) $(0.23) $0.40
========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ==========
Weighted average shares used
in calculating net income
(loss) per share: |
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| To: John Wilson who wrote (9) | 2/3/1999 10:55:00 AM | | From: SteveG | | | |
John, you are right.
98 nine month pro forma is $0.27, and they are expecting to lose $.09 in 98Q4, for a projected 98YE of $0.18 on revenues of $32MM.
99YE is looking for $0.31 on revenues of $43.9MM
00YE is expecting $0.47 on revs of $54.9MM
This is a conservative 2-year projected 61% PE growth and 32% rev growth.
Considering this in addition to BV's previous "shorting an IPO" comment and then attempted denial, IMO I'd suggest taking his posts with a large dose of skepticism. |
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