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   Technology StocksNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

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From: JakeStraw9/28/2018 9:47:18 AM
   of 1656
Evercore ISI hikes Nvidia price target to $400, a Street high on chipmaker's A.I. leadership
"NVDA continues to make a compelling case for long-term sustainable growth across all segments with a specific focus on large industry verticals including Gaming, HPC, Pro Visualization, Transport, Healthcare, and Autonomous Machines," analyst C.J. Muse said in a note to clients Friday. "Very importantly, we view Nvidia as being on the cusp of a tipping point in the company becoming the AI standard platform."

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To: JakeStraw who wrote (1624)9/28/2018 4:30:43 PM
From: OrionX
   of 1656
" compelling case"

What's the compelling case for a stock trading at PE of 40 and 15x revenues? I'd really like to understand the logic behind this kind of recommendation.

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From: Alejandroo Green10/3/2018 9:18:37 AM
1 Recommendation   of 1656
On watch for clear above 292.76.

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From: Intel804210/11/2018 10:47:04 PM
1 Recommendation   of 1656
I'm looking for some connection between Nvidia and Ambarella. AMBA is a fabless semiconductor designer of high definition system on a chip (SoC) cameras. They became involved with computer vision chips when they purchased a small Italian company, VisLab, that was already working on a test vehicle to showcase the value of their vision sensors. VisLab and Ambarella satisfactorily demonstrated the test vehicle in Italy shortly after this year's CES.

Why looking for a connection between mighty Nvidia and mite Ambarella? Ambarella CEO Fermi Wang and CTO Les Kohn have a good reputation in the valley, so I have read, for producing new and useful chips. In July or early August the began sampling their CV2 chip, the chip most suited to handling the vision sensing functions of an autonomous auto.

Although Nvidia receives all kinds of praise for their use of large arrays of their graphics processing units to provide the Artificial Intelligence functions needed for the autonomous auto, I have seen very little said about what they use to supply the sensor information that is fed to the AI. You read of the use of RADAR, and LIDAR, and unnamed other sensors that may include high quality, high resolution camera chips.

The connections? First, during their 2nd Quarter conference call Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore tried to get some specifics on the reception that the CV series was receiving. This passed between Moore and Fermi:

Fermi Wang

Today with the CV2 and CV22, we are really providing a perception solution for those customers and being well received, and I will say that we have several very serious engagements in this autonomous vehicle category right now. And I also want to add another point, which is in the front camera ADAS category, where Nvidia is not now there, I think our main competitor is really Mobileye. And in fact, in order to accelerate the time to market, we kind of focus on customer and partners that are developing their own algorithms.

Joe Moore

And then just to clarify that, I mean the perception module that you are talking about, I mean you actually in some cases could be sitting alongside in video and complementing the functionality of Nvidia solution?

Fermi Wang

That’s correct. In fact, I think some of our engagement is in that kind of category.


Four weeks later, Ambarella presents at a Morgan Stanley technical conference. I have no recording or transcript of the presentation. AMBA officials also talk directly with Moore. After the conference, Moore pens a report in which he names the four semis most likely to benefit from autonomous autos. One of the four is Nvidia. Another is Ambarella, which is also designated to be the one with the most upside. Moore, in the note to clients summing up the conference and the selection of AMBA, states the following:

We expect Ambarella to win business complementing Nvidia solutions, with the main GPU (graphics processing unit) offloading image resolution and perception tasks to the specialized chip," Moore said.

Did someone from Ambarella finally say something specific to Moore about interest in their CV series? And more specifically about Nvidia interest?

One other note. Moore is not the only respected analyst to be high on Ambarella. (Most have given up on them.) Matthew Ramsay, a five star Tipranks analyst (I don't know how well Tipranks is regarded.), on moving over to Cowens in September, named Ambarella as one of his four best plays in semiconductors.

The importance of my search is simply that any announcement of an acquisition, partnership or other relationship between Nvidia and Ambarella would see AMBA's depressed stock price double in a day and a half.

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From: JakeStraw10/18/2018 1:59:08 PM
   of 1656
NVIDIA was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc from a "buy" rating to a "conviction-buy" rating.

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From: Sam11/15/2018 6:13:00 PM
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Nvidia has a Pascal problem, and its stock is plunging after earnings
MARKETWATCH 5:54 PM ET 11/15/2018

Symbol Last Price Change
202.39 +5.49 (+2.78%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:05:45 PM ET 11/15/2018

Quarterly gaming sales lower than expected as Turing launches, Nvidia(NVDA) says it has too many Pascal-based cards in inventory

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shares plunged in the extended session Thursday after the chipmaker's earnings and outlook fell short of Wall Street estimates and a cratering in cryptocurrency sales helped build up an excess inventory of older gaming chips.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares plunged 18% after hours, following a 2.6% rise to close the regular session at $202.39. Nvidia(NVDA) shares had already declined 21.9% in the past three months, as the PHLX Semiconductor Index has declined 7.4% and the S&P 500 index dropped 4.1%.

"Gaming revenue was short of our expectations, and our fourth-quarter outlook is impacted by excess channel inventory of midrange Pascal products," Nvidia(NVDA) Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said in a statement. "We believe this is a near-term issue that will be corrected in one to two quarters, and remain confident in our competitive position and market opportunities."

Gaming revenue rose 13% from a year ago to $1.76 billion, but that was way below the Wall Street consensus of $1.91 billion.

On the call, Kress said that the quarter "included a $57 million charge for prior architecture components and chips following the sharp falloff of crypto mining demand."

Ever since last year's peak in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin , more and more miners have sold off their mining rigs, meaning there has been a flood of second-hand Pascal gaming chips and gaming chips from companies like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) on the market.

Nvidia (NVDA) explained that it is holding on to too many of its older-generation Pascal chips -- Pascal is the chip architecture that is being replaced by Nvidia's(NVDA) recently released Turing chip architecture for professionals (http:// gamers (

That wreaked havoc with Nvidia's(NVDA) forecast for the fourth quarter as it seeks to work down that inventory. The company called for revenue of $2.65 billion to $2.75 billion, while analysts on average had expected revenue of $3.4 billion.

For the third quarter, the company reported net income of $1.23 billion, or $1.97 a share, compared with $838 million, or $1.33 a share, in the year-ago period. On a fully adjusted basis, which strips out stock compensation, earnings were $1.84 a share. Analysts on average expected Nvidia(NVDA) to report GAAP earnings of $1.71 a share and adjusted earnings of $1.93 a share.

Revenue rose to $3.18 billion from $2.64 billion in the year-ago quarter. Wall Street expected revenue of $3.24 billion from Nvidia(NVDA).

Data-center sales rose 58% to $792 million, while the Street expected $819 million. Professional visualization sales rose 28% to $305 million against the Street's estimate of $282 million. Auto sales rose 19% to $172 million, while analysts expected, and OEM & IP revenue fell 23% to $148 million against the Street's $116 million estimate.

More: The Turing test has arrived for Nvidia(NVDA) ( arrived-2018-11-12)

Of the 35 analysts who cover Nvidia(NVDA), 24 have buy or overweight ratings, 10 have hold ratings and one has a sell rating, with an average price target of $285.94.

-Wallace Witkowski; 415-439-6400;

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To: Sam who wrote (1629)11/16/2018 7:51:52 AM
From: Bungalow Bill
   of 1656
Ouch - glad I didn't start a position in the upper 180s earlier this week. Will hold on for a few trading days to see what happens. I wonder if this is a canary in the coal mine for a lot more pain for the overall sector going forward? I keep hearing the term "stuffed channel" - sounds like a tariff related dynamic. Buckle up folks!


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From: JakeStraw11/16/2018 12:15:29 PM
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What every major Wall Street analyst said after the chipmaker's earnings

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From: Glenn Petersen12/12/2018 7:16:44 PM
1 Recommendation   of 1656
After losing half its value, Nvidia faces reckoning

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton
December 12, 2018

Nvidia is a company that has reached the highest highs and the lowest lows, all in the span of a couple of weeks.

Over the past two months, Nvidia’s stock has dropped from a closing price of $289.36 on October 1 to today’s opening of $148.42, a decline of 48.8 percent.

It takes a lot for a company to lose nearly half its value in such a short period of time, but Nvidia is proving that an otherwise strong technology business can disappear in the blink of an eye. The company faces an almost perfect barrage of headwinds to its core products that is stalling its plans for long-term chip domination.

To step back a bit first though, Nvidia has traditionally made graphical processing units (GPUs) that are excellent at the kinds of parallel computation required for gaming and applications like computer-aided design (CAD). It’s a durable and repeatable business, and one that Nvidia has a commanding market share in.

Yet, these markets are also fairly narrow, and so Nvidia has endeavored over the past few years to expand its product offerings to encompass new applications like artificial intelligence / machine learning, autonomous automotive and crypto hashing. These applications all need strong parallelized processing, which Nvidia specializes in.

At least part of that story has worked well. Nvidia’s chips were extremely popular in the crypto run-up over the past few years, causing widespread shortages of the chips (and annoying its core gaming fans in the process).

This was huge for Nvidia. The company had revenues of $1.05 billion for the quarter ending October 31, 2013, and $1.31 billion two years later in 2015 — a fairly slow rate of growth as would be expected for a dominant player in a mature market. As the company expanded its horizons though, Nvidia engorged on growth in new applications like crypto, growing to $3.2 billion in revenue in its last reported quarter. As can be expected, the stock soared.

Now, Nvidia’s growth story is being hammered on multiple fronts. First and foremost, the huge sales of its chips into the crypto space have dried up as crypto prices have crashed in recent months. This is a pattern we are seeing with other companies, namely Bitmain, which has made specialized crypto chips a major part of its business but has lost an enormous amount of its momentum in the crypto bust. It announced it was shuttering its Israel office this week.

That bust is obvious in Nvidia’s revenues this year: they are essentially flat for three quarters now, hovering between $3.1 and $3.2 billion. Some have called this Nvidia’s “ crypto hangover.” But crypto is just one facet of the challenges that Nvidia faces.

When it comes to owning next-generation application workflows, Nvidia is facing robust competition from startups and established players who want access to this potentially gigantic market. Even its potential customers are competing with it. Facebook is reportedly designing its own chips, Apple has been doing so for years, Google has been in the game a while and Amazon is getting into the game fast. Nvidia has the know-how to compete, but these companies also understand the nuances of their applications really, really well. It’s a tough market position to be in.

If the challenges around applications weren’t enough, geopolitical tensions are also causing Nvidia serious harm. As Dan Strumpf and Wenxin Fan wrote in The Wall Street Journal two weeks ago in a deep dive, the company is emblematic of the challenge Silicon Valley firms face in the U.S. / China trade stand-off:

Nvidia executives are watching the trade fight with growing unease over whether it will curb its access to Chinese customers, according to a person familiar with the matter. Almost 20% of Nvidia’s $9.7 billion in revenue last year came from China. Many of its chips are used there for assembly into other products, and it has invested heavily to tap China’s burgeoning AI industries.

The company also is concerned that deteriorating relations between the world’s two biggest economies are causing Beijing to double down on efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers of key hardware such as chips by nurturing homegrown competitors, eating into Nvidia’s long-term business.

Crypto, customers and China. That’s how you lose half your company’s value in two months.

What’s next

Arman and I are still investigating the next-generation silicon space. Some good conversations the past few days with investors and supply-chain folks to learn more about this space. Nvidia’s analysis above is the tip of the iceberg. Have thoughts? Give me a ring:

This newsletter is written with the assistance of Arman Tabatabai from New York.

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (1632)12/12/2018 10:10:00 PM
From: rogermci®
   of 1656
For the most part, all of that bit of news already discounted in the price of the stock. As I've said before a lot of good stocks have taken 50% hits in price over the last few months and rightfully so. Softbank just announced they're unloading a sizable chunk of NVDA. Stock price did not budge. Facing a reckoning? I don't think so. Tell me something new I don't already know. Stock market crashing? It already has.

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