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   Strategies & Market TrendsInvestment strategy


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To: William Vu who wrote (7)3/13/1996 1:12:00 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 26
 
Hallo William,
I didn't intend to say that your investment strategy is naiv. I just feel that there are many overoptimistic people around here making mistakes and what is worse, so not learn from their mistakes.

As for the MU topic, I fell that DRAM are a commodity business. That means that a relatively small oversupplie with DRAM's will lead to a steep price drop. Therfore it's very dangerous to value ths MU stock from their P/E ratio alone. They had big windfal profits from the high DRAM prices in the past which will diminsh in the near future.

As for the Compaq topic, I feel that youre basically right. At 37$ an investment is CPQ looks reasonnable. However I think that the PC price wars will trigger some bad news which may hammer down the CPQ stock a bit more. from the chart, and my felling, I would conclude, that we have a downside risk to 32$. Im pondering about an investment in CPQ to, but I have not decided yet. I am uneasy about the Dow. I thin that the latest market gyrations show, that the investors are getting very nervous too. A Dow crash is not that unlikely. Therfor I want to keep some cash back.

Til later

Ralf

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To: William Vu who wrote (8)3/13/1996 4:13:00 PM
From: A. F. Brooks
   of 26
 
Check out the web site infras.com for a nice write-up
on FSI International. I live in Minnesota so FSII is a local company
for me. They are ISO9001 certified, are well managed (good
reputation locally) are growing fast, are tight with Texas Instruments,
and have a hot product that is described in the Oct or Nov issue at
the aforementioned website.

BTW, I recently became a subscribing reader of Infrastructure. They
really know the high tech sector and you get excellent personalized
service.

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To: William Vu who wrote (8)3/14/1996 12:52:00 AM
From: Chilidawgz
   of 26
 
Hi William, see the later post for fundamental info on FSII. I like this stock for a number of reasons. It caught my eye on the charts. It appears to have made a good base at around $13. MACD and weekly stochastics show this stock is ready to move up. Zack's has it rated in their top 150 stock selections. It has no debt. Zack's info shows 4 of 4 brokers recommending a buy on this issue. PE is low at 11. Yesterday's book to bill at .9 did not shake up the semi stocks or this issue. It's moved already from the high 12 area to 14. It's ready to run IF we don't get hammered in the overall market.
Good luck, Ron

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (9)3/15/1996 1:49:00 PM
From: William Vu
   of 26
 
Hallo, Ralf:
Does it mean that if the DOW stocks will go down then you will buy
DOW?
I think that best stocks to buy now is High Tech, not DOW, because
High Tech is a growth area and it is relatively cheap now.
With the changes in recent days (INTC now nearly 58, CPQ 39.5)
I think that they will not return to 50 or 32, as you hoped.
But they are still cheap, in my view. I wish I had cash to jump in
a few days ago when I made my comments to you.

Do you know which companies make network computers?
I heard about the idea, and I liked it. The abbreviation NC also
is interesting, alphabetically it should precede PC. Though NC cannot
replace PC (it is obvious), it has the potential of a popular home
appliance (because it might be easier to use, cheaper, and so on).
I know that many investors are very skeptic about NC, but I do
believe that this idea will work. Therefore, if some companies will
make NC I would watch them more closely. Any tips or comments?

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To: William Vu who wrote (12)3/17/1996 9:17:00 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 26
 
Hallo William,

no I wouldn't touch most DOW stocks. I think that the DOW might eventually come down, perhaps in 6 month or so. Most DOW stocks are overvalued. Im a bit cautious about tech stocks because I think that a weak DOW won't let the tech stocks untouched...
With high tech, you are right. You have in the US so many growth companies that you do not know to value them. If the same companies were located in Europe, they would be much more expensive. I am amazed about the friday rise in tech stocks, because of the relatively good Micron anouncement. I expected that tech stocks would be dumped. so I were wrong. Nevertheless, I expect more bad news in the near future. This might give me some opportunities to buy some tech stocks finally. After the recent CPQ drop, I thought a bit about PC-stocks. I think, that DELL might be better than CPQ right now, but I am not shure. I am shure that Network PC's are worthwhile to think about. However I feel, that the weak spot will not be to be a cheap 500$ network box, I think the problem is that phone lines do not allow the high data transfer rates needed for operation.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (13)3/17/1996 10:44:00 AM
From: William Vu
   of 26
 
Hallo, Ralf: Even during the worst days of MU I always thought that
there are more chances that it will recover. Though P/E alone is not
everything, it is SOMETHING! MU falled because of DRAM price, and,
moreover, because investors' pessimism. This extremely volatile stock
is very good for speculation. For long term, it is prudent to buy
at relatively low and watch the market closely.
The 3.5 jump last Friday was, in my view, a signal that the trend now
is upward. If you can tolerate a little risk, I think it is worth
considering buying MU now (remember that: more risk sometimes means
potentially higher reward, and this is a calculated risk!).

There are more chances that MU will go up Monday, then drop. For the
whole next week I think still more probability that it will go up.
(I paid attention to the sizes of the moves every day, if the size is
big, like 3.5 points, my gut feeling then tells many people are
buying).

I have found one company that produces NC: it is VICP (Visual
Information Service Corp.). But it is too small and therefore looks
not convincing, at least now. BTW, it has partnership with a German
Company Amiga. Since you are in Gernmany, can you give me your
comments about Amiga? Thanks.

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To: William Vu who wrote (14)3/18/1996 4:09:00 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 26
 
Hallo William,

I think you are right, semis will be fine this week. However, I would think about selling your MU stake, if they go up substantually. I had an unlucky timing, tried to buy a bulk of Intel shares. However, i was imobilized for nearly two weeks because I switched to a discount bank. So I were a bit late and set my limit order too tight to get in.

I indeed no about Amiga ( the former Commodore). It was bought a last year from Mr. Schmitt, an entrepreneur in the computer sector in Germany. However, recently, he was a bit unlucky too. His flagship Escom, a big computer discounter ( which is known for the low prices and their even lower quality; just my opinion) took a big loss, because of bad Xmas computer sales. Some big german companies bailed it out. Mr. Schmitt has bought into Hagenuk too, an small ailing german wireless phone maker. Its said to make big losses until now. The 'Amiga' unit, as far as I know, intends to make 'multimedia computers' or something similar. I am not sure. However, given the recent track, think the overall picture does not look convincing. I think it's too early to invest in NC-companies.

Til later

Ralf

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (6)3/19/1996 2:36:00 PM
From: olduser
   of 26
 
Well, Ralf, you sure aren't modest about your own abilities and good sense. Mewonders have much experience you really have investing. Its a hard game and you seem a mite to carefree and confident about the whole business. Just an observation
Madman

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From: Spekulatius3/20/1996 2:46:00 AM
   of 26
 
Hallo Madison,

I think a have some investing experience, since I bought my first stocks in 1982. However, experience doesn't mean that one is succesfull. With my investments, I am confident to receive a modest 20% return. Sure you can make more money in boom times, but you can loose your shirt when the market turns down. I am amazed how many people around here bought stocks in relatively unknown tech companies. I would never dare to do this. So I would describe myself as a cautious investor and stick with stocks in mature industries like automobiles, banks etc. I have so far, almost no experience with tech stocks and I think that tech is a very dangerous playground. Yes investing is a very hard game, and as I fell my investment knowledge is limited, I would be glad if you would share your knowledge with us.

Ralf

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To: Spekulatius who wrote ()5/28/1996 10:57:00 PM
From: olduser
   of 26
 
hi ralf,from your criteria,woul you buy apple computer now?....ernie padilla

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