| To: Mike C2 who wrote (21) | 3/31/1999 7:52:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Mike,
Sit back and enjoy TECH!
Look at older posts in our thread: they tell you why TECH is a fantastic company and why the price WILL go up. You might need patience, there may be set-backs, but sooner or later it's bound to be a big winner, IMO.
The Yahoo thread is not much more active. I stopped posting on both, because there was not more to add to my earlier postings; don't want keep on repeating myself too much.
Why "suddenly' a new up-tick? well, it's the same excellent company as before, and somebody out there thinks so too. I personally think it is still vastly under-followed, and under-appreciated. Once thought the fair value is at about 30; I now think, it is north of 43.
Cheers DrJohn |
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| To: dr.john who wrote (22) | 3/31/1999 8:48:00 PM | | From: Shane M | | | |
Dr. John,
I agree with your @ $30 fair value for TECH. What has prompted you to up you fair value to $43? Has the long term outlook brightened/ growth rate increased?
FWIW, In my experience, stocks with good momentum (like TECH has) will run past fair value - often by a large %.
Shane |
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| To: Shane M who wrote (23) | 4/1/1999 5:36:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Shane,
Tech is expected to earn about 0,78-o,8 USD/share in FY 99 and about 1,o in FY2000. However, if we exclude the extraordinary one-time items related to goodwill amortization this year, Techne's operating results were extremely strong, actually stronger than in the past: For the 6 months ended Dec 98 they reported net income of 7,1 mill ('97: 6,3 mill) including the extraordinary item of 4,7 mill in 98; Let's add 3 millions of these 4,7 to the bottom line and the "real" net earnings might have been somewhere at 10 million, i.e a surge of over 60% ; there are 5% more shares outstanding, but it still comes down to a EPS of 60% higher than in 97. Let's make it 50%. This is a higher growth rate than in the past, and for the reasons outlined in our older postings I think it will apply for the remainder of this year and, likely, for the next year as well. Which translates into a "corrected" EPS of about 1,15 for FY,99 and of 1,5 in FY2000 (if you assume a growth rate of 30% only), or of 1,7 (if you assume a growth rate of 50%). Lets take the lower number (i.e 30% growth for 2000, apply a P/E of 30 and you have a share price of 45. Of course, the target price would be much higher, if you take the higher numbers, or award a higher P/E (which Techne deserves: industry leader, superb past history, excellent fundamentals, excellent balance sheet…). Well these are just my thoughts.
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| To: Shane M who wrote (25) | 7/6/1999 7:20:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Shane,
It is the same music, indeed. But then, the story about Techne is very simple and straightforward; you need no insider knowledge to arrive at the same conclusions. Techne is very undervalued at the moment and I think of loading up some more. Besides, it was C.Ziegler (Artisana fund) who first referred to Technes business as "selling picks to miners"; I used the term because it really hits the point.
cheers
DrJohn |
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| To: dr.john who wrote (26) | 7/30/1999 10:58:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Such a beautiful investment-case and such a silent board........
Go back to mssg 24, it's all still very true....
Strange, how sometimes the best investment ideas go -if not completely unnoticed- almost unnoticed
apart from its five star past track-record the beauty of tech lies in:
-RECURRING revenue base of income: Tech is the leading and the high quality provider of products which are used and re-ordered and used and re-ordered.....; unlike p.ex manufacturers of bioanalytical measurement systems.
-growing market: there is no threat to the growing importance of cytokines in basic/clinical research and diagnosis. The insight into the myriad-role of cytokines is growing, growing; cytokines are natural occurring messengers, no competing product can render them obsolete; their key role in a multitude of diseases is more and more appreciated.
-Last but not least: Techne is cautiously eyeing the possibility of transforming itself -at least a small part of itself- into a therapeutic- company: The investment in Chemocentrix (researching into chemokines, and therapeutics targenting chemokines) is the first step.
-finally: if you want to own a company where you are COMPLETELY sure about the integrity, modesty, intelligence and foresight of the management team---> invest in Techne, sleep well, and enjoy the ride. My only concern: I still do not own enough.
Dr John |
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| To: dr.john who started this subject | 6/30/2000 4:18:19 PM | | From: David GarrisonD | | | | | I'm surprised that this board doesn't have more activity, considering the recent meteoric rise in Techne's share price. There's a great write-up in today's Investor's Business Daily on the New America page (A11). The caption for the graph says, "Techne is raising its margins while lowering its cost of doing business." |
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