| To: Walter Morton who wrote (16) | 2/24/1999 11:47:00 PM | | From: Shane M | | | |
I'm not familiar with the deal, but it sounded to me like Techne was going to pay CIST royalties based on success of the product. Again, I just breezed the info a couple days ago and am going from memory here.
Shane |
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| To: Mike C2 who wrote (21) | 3/31/1999 7:52:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Mike,
Sit back and enjoy TECH!
Look at older posts in our thread: they tell you why TECH is a fantastic company and why the price WILL go up. You might need patience, there may be set-backs, but sooner or later it's bound to be a big winner, IMO.
The Yahoo thread is not much more active. I stopped posting on both, because there was not more to add to my earlier postings; don't want keep on repeating myself too much.
Why "suddenly' a new up-tick? well, it's the same excellent company as before, and somebody out there thinks so too. I personally think it is still vastly under-followed, and under-appreciated. Once thought the fair value is at about 30; I now think, it is north of 43.
Cheers DrJohn |
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| To: dr.john who wrote (22) | 3/31/1999 8:48:00 PM | | From: Shane M | | | |
Dr. John,
I agree with your @ $30 fair value for TECH. What has prompted you to up you fair value to $43? Has the long term outlook brightened/ growth rate increased?
FWIW, In my experience, stocks with good momentum (like TECH has) will run past fair value - often by a large %.
Shane |
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| To: Shane M who wrote (23) | 4/1/1999 5:36:00 PM | | From: dr.john | | | |
Shane,
Tech is expected to earn about 0,78-o,8 USD/share in FY 99 and about 1,o in FY2000. However, if we exclude the extraordinary one-time items related to goodwill amortization this year, Techne's operating results were extremely strong, actually stronger than in the past: For the 6 months ended Dec 98 they reported net income of 7,1 mill ('97: 6,3 mill) including the extraordinary item of 4,7 mill in 98; Let's add 3 millions of these 4,7 to the bottom line and the "real" net earnings might have been somewhere at 10 million, i.e a surge of over 60% ; there are 5% more shares outstanding, but it still comes down to a EPS of 60% higher than in 97. Let's make it 50%. This is a higher growth rate than in the past, and for the reasons outlined in our older postings I think it will apply for the remainder of this year and, likely, for the next year as well. Which translates into a "corrected" EPS of about 1,15 for FY,99 and of 1,5 in FY2000 (if you assume a growth rate of 30% only), or of 1,7 (if you assume a growth rate of 50%). Lets take the lower number (i.e 30% growth for 2000, apply a P/E of 30 and you have a share price of 45. Of course, the target price would be much higher, if you take the higher numbers, or award a higher P/E (which Techne deserves: industry leader, superb past history, excellent fundamentals, excellent balance sheet…). Well these are just my thoughts.
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