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As a BMY long SH (not very happy for last 18 months), I can only say that I am even less happy now with CELG deal. And, there is several reasons that I think that they overpaid for this deal. First BMY has several bad deals of late, and sugar over everything is CELG deal.
CELG IMIDs are slowly loosing strain, and IP will eat them inside out. Last 3 large deal, RCPT, Impact, and JUNO, (~$20B in total) are with questionable outcome. Ozanimod and Fedratinib are nothing more than me-too copy of current standard, while JUNO advantage over KITE is maybe nothing more than science-fiction. So, management that grounded CELG are now awarded with this lucrative deal. What message this send true bio-sector? We are ALL winners?????
OK, so given the original purpose of this thread was to find prey before the predators got it . . . Who are the expected munchees after Biogen has a major clinical failure and has to flesh out the pipeline? With BIIB down in excess of 25% not all biotechs in the neuro space are down. SRPT, NBIX, and SAGE are up noticeably. perhaps there are others not on my radar. Anyone still here to throw out ideas aside from the above?
Someone posted a list of M&A candidates during the JPM healthcare conference in January and I added some info and published the list to google sheets. SRPT, NBIX and SAGE are on the list, but maybe others are potential candidates as well.
Others suggest a bunch f small deals, noting BIIBI has a better record of value creation from their smaller deals. So I don't follow much in the SMID euro space, except for Minerva (NERV) and Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI). If they get a good readout later this year, that could potentially put them in play. There are, of course many more to choose from in the SMID range. It's just even harder to pick ones of any quality.
A research note I'm seeing says BIIB has 18 billion for M&A.