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   Strategies & Market TrendsMDA - Market Direction Analysis


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From: ajtj997/17/2019 3:18:06 PM
   of 86698
 
From another blog:
SentimenTrader’s Dumb Money Confidence exceeded 80% on Monday. ST’s Backtest Engine shows there have been 151 days with a reading this high in the past 20 years. The S&P’s annualized return was -22.3% following those days. Over the past 7 years, all 25 days showed a negative return a month later, averaging -3.0%.

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From: ajtj997/17/2019 4:08:54 PM
   of 86698
 
NFLX getting spanked, down 11% in early A/H trading.

Streaming growth only new 800,000 subs. The street expected more like 5-million.

Growth premium being corrected.

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (85118)7/17/2019 4:27:19 PM
From: ajtj99
   of 86698
 
I'm seeing elsewhere the NFLX new subs number is 2.7-million. The 800,000 number may have been US only.

I probably don't have to look at their balance sheet. They have never had operating cash flow in their existence. Someday that's going to matter.

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (85113)7/17/2019 5:18:35 PM
From: LG
   of 86698
 
AJTJ & ItsAllcyclical,

While it is obvious that GLD recently broke out of a multi year trading range, it is doing so as my weekly OB/OS models are entering their OB ranges.

SLV is showing some signs of turning up while my OB/OS models are in mid range. The ongoing Lear Capital television commercials pushing silver since 2015 may eventually be spot on, ask that Rich Dad Poor Dad guy...;)

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (85117)7/17/2019 5:35:06 PM
From: LG
   of 86698
 
ajtj99,

Per my work, June lows are looking vulnerable...

Regards,
LG

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To: LG who wrote (85121)7/17/2019 6:08:28 PM
From: ajtj99
   of 86698
 
LG, that plays into my broadening top hypothesis for the S&P 500.

With the personal income and personal expenditure numbers for June coming out strong, it looks like 2nd Qtr GDP is going to be closer to 2.1%, up from a previous 1.8% estimate.

In other words, like 1995, the Fed is looking to cut rates to save the world (well, in 1995 it was Mexico and the US banks), not cutting because of slack in US demand.

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To: IC720 who wrote (85112)7/17/2019 6:24:41 PM
From: e2thex
   of 86698
 
OT

Climate vs weather? It’s of interest when projected climate change becomes your weather.

We now know how the debate in the price of commodities is going to play out. An increase in prices will be attributed solely to increased consumption rather than arable land shortages arising from climatic change. It’s the century of water so you’ll be banned on Silicon Investor for running amiss with your views.

Of interest this year was the throw-away line about how extended time in space affects one’s eyesight. Can you imagine arriving on Mars and everyone needs new eye prescriptions? (I hope they print all the instructions in large type. )

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To: e2thex who wrote (85123)7/18/2019 9:12:48 AM
From: IC720
   of 86698
 
“Climate vs weather?”

Are same in my view. Sorry for the misunderstanding. My point was.. Life and Markets are of probabilities. With a probability of earth cooling (shown to be case last 2 winters) next several years. Possible to be a lack of food supply and agricultural land, causing an increase to inflation. Was my only point. Best regards.

In edit, just saw this..

"The banks are the PERFECT indicator of how not to run a business. They make decisions emotionally and always get the economy dead wrong (i.e mortgage-backed securities peaked in 2007)."
Agricultural Loans Declining Right on Target

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From: ajtj997/18/2019 10:00:46 AM
   of 86698
 
Philly Fed printed a huge number today. Big upside surprise.

Meanwhile, iron ore hit a 5-year high yesterday, and industrial metals keep moving up in price.

It appears China's stimulus efforts are pulling industrial commodity prices up. Even lead, an important auto component, has been on the rise. It's now at the highest level it's been since March, up almost 15% off the June lows.

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To: e2thex who wrote (85114)7/18/2019 10:24:32 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical
   of 86698
 
I'm a better than average market timer, but far from great. That was a bit of luck to nail it like that. Gold did back test 1400 and that part almost worked great as well, but still was able to buy back at very reasonable prices (didn't sell the whole thing anyways, just pared back). Even though gold didn't have a deeper correction I think it was still the right call at the time.

SAND breakout alert. Far cheaper than RGLD, good management/FA.

In terms of broad market most likely scenario now would be a retest of the recent highs going into Fed or prior and then maybe we get a deeper rollover. Still watching earnings/CCs for clues.

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