| To: Trader J who wrote (54542) | 4/4/2022 1:51:12 PM | | From: Madharry | | | | as always a thoughtful post. I spent some time over weekend ruminating over my portfolo. my dividend income relative my expenses portfolio breakdown. I looked at the increase in home prices over the past two years. for most parts of the country the rise has been 30-37%. the stock market for most people has been up considerably as well. other segments of the population have benefited from the child care credit.
went to a new bar/restaurant for the first time. a bit of a dive. the burgers with one side were $12.75 on up. no shortage of customers. there doesnt seem to be a shortage of jobs either. I just dont much downside here barring a nuclear event which is always possible, but i cant quantify that in my assessment. I think there are plenty of values out there. |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54537) | 4/4/2022 6:17:01 PM | | From: Madharry | | | | | I dont think i have seen so many stocks that look like values to me in a long long time. we will see if I am just kidding myself or not in the next year or two. What has happened in china makes no economic sense. Softbank has made something close to 200 investments in 2021 many into chinese companies. If the chinese are not going to be cooperative and help those company list on Nadaq someday it would be foolhardy for Softbank to make any new investments in Chinese companies, and that holds true for every venture capitalist out there. the entire private banking industry might as well close up shop and go elsewhere. Nothing can topple a government faster than no jobs and no food. I dont know what sort of safety net is provided for the unemployed in china but my guess is its not much. On a short term basis I am encouraged by Apple and Google having positive days. |
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| From: Trader J | 4/6/2022 10:00:41 AM | | | | | | TLRY Earnings: Interesting release and showing some of the potential. This is a stock that wants to run but it's going to take some of the positive catalysts to play out over time before realizing full potential. This earnings report is showing some of the financial efficiency moves paying off and the stock is reacting to the positive comments about future revenues.
finance.yahoo.com |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (54550) | 4/6/2022 10:06:10 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | Value: The value play is still working it seems but I still can't get excited about most stocks right now with the overhang of some of the negative catalysts, primarily geopolitical, inflation and Fed. There are a lot of big flies in the market ointment right now that have a lot of downside potential and I don't think the markets have truly priced them in. To me, it's priced for a soft landing in all of them and I that's a three way parlay I don't think I can get behind.
That said, I'm still looking to snipe where I can and I want to take those other positions in some of my favorite long term tech plays that I missed in the last couple of weeks. Playing the long game can be tough in a market like this because the tides can be violent both ways over the short term. It's why I'm definitely shading to small additions where I can and retaining the cash.
We just have to each, individually, pick our spots for those names we want to enter. |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54552) | 4/6/2022 10:09:27 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | QCOM/MU: Both of these coming back into range and I'll end up with both at some point shortly. MU at $69 looks really good and QCOM around $133 is my goal, but I'll probably wade in sooner on both.
AMD and other semis in the same boat.
This is just an unwinding of the upside trade in the names that occurred recently and most are approaching their recent lows again. |
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| To: Elroy who wrote (54546) | 4/6/2022 10:14:42 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | ROKU: Just realized that I did not answer you last couple of questions Elroy.
ROKU is an aggregator of streaming more than a pure streaming content play, though they are expanding their offerings. For me, with a cost of $27/shr., it's now as much about the capital gains as anything. The story has shifted, not changed, as it relates to streaming but I still like the position of ROKU, especially with their OS on top TVs and their position as an aggregator of the space. I LOVE taking my ROKU stick with me on trips still and their intl. expansion still has opportunity though results have been mixed.
I expect they'll be a buyout target unless they misplay their hand and try to become the next big streamer and compete with those already in the space (I hope not). They are still earning a ton of revenue from the primary streamers and their ad dollars are still increasing as well.
It's not the play it was when it was close to $500 and I still lament only unloading 50% of my position on the second ascent of the stock, but I'm still holding because enough of the story remains in tact and I don't want to take $100 in cap gains. |
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| To: Elroy who wrote (54547) | 4/6/2022 10:30:09 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | SNOW: We all have to pick our spots on those tech and specs we like. TWLO and SNOW are two of my top names because of their positioning and performance in their markets.
When I say I'm focusing on quarterly earnings and profitability in short order, I mean that I'm looking for continued expansion of their top and bottom lines over the next few quarters to show me that they navigate these more difficult and competitive waters.
I don't like speaking in what I call "absolutes" if I can help it. Words such as: will, won't, always, never, can't, etc. Too dangerous and I'm rarely the person who says I "know" what will happen. All I have is my experience, knowledge, work ethic and strategy that helps me place my chips in such a way that allow for maximum gain while minimizing catastrophic losses on those which don't pan out.
Thus far my strategy has worked very well for me but I don't spend too much time looking in the rear view. It's important for understanding how to improve my own results by being very aware of not only my failures but also my successes. Those, together, create a roadmap for us to be even more successful going forward and I'm a slave to that thinking.
With TWLO and SNOW, both have worked their models with precision and execution to provide for many great years ahead. But as any story, there's a lot of chapters and success is never guaranteed.
So, do I have any idea if they will be the winners in 7-10 years from now? Well, if I didn't think they were going to be, I wouldn't be invested for the long term. But, at the same time, I make sure my positions aren't overweight case I'm not correct.
But there's an important part to this which many fail to understand or execute themselves. Too often traders and investors see their stocks as all or nothing affairs. Positions I/we take should always be continuously evaluated to ensure the story stays intact. When that story changes, so too does the investment thesis and you need to, at least, reevaluate to see what it means for the position. We can all go position blind and hang onto our favorite stocks even when the story breaks down. In most all cases, we're given opportunities to exit at a point to minimize loss, take gains, reduce weight, etc.
It's not always easy to do but looking objectively at our holdings, the positive and negative catalysts and the story/investment thesis to each are paramount to long-term success. I fall into that trap as well but try to learn from each experience.
Cheers and thanks for the question.
TJ |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54552) | 4/6/2022 10:35:18 AM | | From: Madharry | | | | | i got scared enough by this market to sell my rblx at a loss, as i dont know where the potential bottom is that for that one. I really dont get the volatility. why should a stock like moderna get clobbered? or the semiconductor stocks for that matter. I just dont get what has changed in the last two days we have known for some time that the fed would start selling off assets and raising rates. but i think housing demand continues to be strong. |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (54556) | 4/6/2022 12:00:07 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | It's a volatility game now. Housing demand remains strong in a trailing figure but mortgage applications are tanking at the hands of rising rates and that's likely going to continue as less people can afford new homes at elevated prices. Home prices by inflation and supply-demand models will need to come down.
Inflation always occurs well before the impact of raising rates to fight it, though can invert the yield curve as we're seeing now. So along with rising energy prices, war, fading supply-demand trends, etc., we're starting to price in fear of recession or worse. I think it's well justified.
We've long known the Fed would stop printing money and would start raising rates but as I was pounding my fist on the table about this not being a transitory situation mid last year while the Fed sat on their hands, what we've seen now is hyper inflation and now the Fed is forced to consider EXTREMELY aggressive rate raises instead of .25 bps raises. I won't be surprised to see another 200 bps of increase by EOY. Furthermore, if they don't, then they may not get inflation under control.
MRNA, just like RBLX and all other names like this are trading stocks due to their visibility in the space. I would argue MRNA should NOT be defined as such but because of Covid and vaccine issues, they are and they trade like a trading stock. As such, they will be whipped with the VIX.
The techs have seen a great bounce of late and this is now unwinding. It's basically an understanding by retail, as I've been saying for a bit now, that the bottom is definitely not necessarily in.
If "the bottom is in" then that means all negative situations are already priced into the market and there is NO WAY that is the case in my mind. That's about as much of an absolute statement as you'll get from me. LOL.
Cheers all. |
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