| To: ggamer who wrote (54529) | 3/30/2022 9:45:38 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | TLRY: I don't believe it's the same scenario because when I took that position before there were a couple variables that provided for rise and the stars had aligned perfectly. While it was my best single trade ever, I could have never forecasted all those tumblers dropping as they did:
1) It was completely off the radar. The shares were at $7 as I recall and I was able to get the leaps at essentially $0 premium. As I recall I paid $2 for the $5 calls.
2) Cannabis was percolating but in was still mired in legalization issues
3) My "what if' scenario related to a democratic controlled power shift wasn't being forecasted by many, if any.
4) Wall Street Bets (WSB) hadn't fully found TLRY yet.
5) Short ratio was rising and laid the foundation for the rise to come.
Basically, all five of those provided for a perfect setup and we can't hope to have that setup quite like that again. That's not to say we need all of those for a great rise. All it takes is for continued legislations/acceptance, a healthy short ratio and WSB to provide for the grease to the engine of those catalysts.
TLRY financials seem to be improving and going forward, there's every chance this becomes a catalyst as well in the space. Their leadership position in supply and distribution could well pay dividends into full legalization. This is the primary variable I want to see come to pass ... want them to be a well run and viable model and then allow everything else to fall into place over time.
Always a good idea to take some profits where you can and not hold it all. I'm not discounting the possibility for another big rise and, of course, was actually banking on it while the premium came down. I tried to find that point where their is enough catalyst to support the premium which would allow me to either profit or roll those options forward without much cost involved and I still feel good about the timing.
I'm not against exercising those calls at $5 to take the shares if I see real improvement and traction in their model into legalization.
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54532) | 4/1/2022 11:36:14 AM | | From: Madharry | | | | | I wonder when pot gets legalized will pot be banned in public places? yesterday i was in a public place and the a guy near me was not smoking but he reeked of it. I bought a few shares of prosy last couple of days. I am waiting to see if apple makes a new high or google breaks 3000 in the next couple of weeks. if neither of those happen I may get more cautious. |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54534) | 4/1/2022 3:20:07 PM | | From: Madharry | | | | | I sold a put on qcom today given me an entry price of $138. i also sold some puts on the homebuilder i like GRBK. if it doesnt get put to me i just keep the premium . I figure I can maybe generate $30 k in income from selling puts and calls. hopefully it doesnt trigger any medicare penalties. |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (54535) | 4/4/2022 10:50:42 AM | | From: Madharry | | | | I am excited about the prospects of my china portfolio for 2022. included are baba bidu kweb softbank and prosy. I also believe the risk / reward profile of nrz is much improved and not really reflected in the share price.
two factors being the sharp rise in home price over the past two years leading me to believe that the mortgage loan/ value on the homes has sharply declined and the continued raise in rates makes the msr segment of the portfolio that much more valuable. |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (54536) | 4/4/2022 11:24:58 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | China: I still haven't repositioned in China. I have a little BABA in a couple of other accounts but still haven't gone back in from everything I liquidated before. I did consider rolling back in on that big day of capitulation last month. Would have been a great opportunity. That said, even if I did reestablish, it would be for a very small % as I believe the story has changed too much with too much govt. interference. Makes it very difficult to get clear visibility. On potential and 'value' alone, I like a lot of the primary plays but I just don't know what is going to happen to the sector next from a delisting or Chinese govt. standpoint and the existence of that violates one of my primary investment tenets about holding positions when the story changes too dramatically.
That all said, something I have seen work over and over again is how you can usually invest in the whatever is most out of favor at any given time if you have the patience to wait. There are a lot of "babies" in the street when the bathwater is thrown out and whether it is energy, oil, China, financials, REITs, tech, spec., etc. etc., whenever something is very out of favor and left for dead, entering and waiting can be very profitable. |
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| From: Trader J | 4/4/2022 11:54:28 AM | | | | | | | TRADE (Income): Purchased PFF in my income account. Just a small purchase in the "Years 2-11" account to capture the 4.6% dividend and put a little cash to work. This has long been one of my favorite dividend plays and I also own it in the primary account. This position makes up about 1% of the 2-11 account. |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (54536) | 4/4/2022 11:59:45 AM | | From: Elroy | | | | I also like China tech stocks as a "rebound play".
Unfortunately I only really know the big big big names, like BABA.
Is there a Chinese tech stock ETF? I seem to recall someone posting about that somewhere. I'd happily own a basket of the 20 largest Chinese tech stocks. |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (54538) | 4/4/2022 12:04:09 PM | | From: Elroy | | | | Purchased PFF in my income account.
I had a glance at the chart. It pays 4.5%, but the share price doesn't really move.
Why not buy O? It also yields about 4.5%, but the dollars paid increases a bit with increases in rent rates, and the share price over the decades increases along with the higher dividend. Why buy zero capital appreciation PFF rather than some capital appreciation O? |
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| To: Elroy who wrote (54540) | 4/4/2022 12:11:20 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | Welcome to the thread! I have quite a few "favorite" income plays and I've looked at O over the years and still do, in fact. Currently though I have DLR and VNQ.
O is actually in the top 10 possibilities for my next purchase as it relates to new positions. As it relates to purchases of things like O which has a history of 10% drops, I much prefer to get it at a trough if I can. A lot of time it just comes down to timing for me. Would like to see it at $65-$66 again. |
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