| To: ggamer who wrote (54522) | 3/24/2022 6:21:49 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | TLRY: I post almost every trade on my thread either when I do it or when I'm thinking of making a trade so you'll certainly know.
Yes, TLRY is still running and I hope it continues. My taking the calls wasn't because I believe TLRY is a monster company but that it is a company in the news with upside catalysts but also with a short position and the following of the WSB group. It won't take much to create a Phoenix play (as I call them) when the shares rise from the ashes and scream higher. I'm not looking for a similar trade when my calls ran from an underlying price of $5 to $50+, but I'm hoping for $20+ ... but keeping my options open, no pun intended.
The problem in this market is that while there can be uplift, without follow-on news or momentum, it's likely to settle back down so you can always use any spike to slip out of some shares to recapture cost. Just kee pthat in mind.
The WSB community is struggling to find a common target right now so the right environment will provide potential for the stock and TLRY is still followed in that group. Here's to hoping .... |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Trader J | 3/26/2022 11:00:26 AM | | | | | | TLRY: Really nice movement this week but I can't say it's enough to support the price here without follow-on news/catalysts in the short term. My 1/23 $5 Calls are up nicely and the WSB community is definitely percolating again. It could be enough if we get follow through legislation on the cannabis stocks, and TLRY is certainly one of the top names.
TLRY does seem to be making inroads to greater distribution as arguably the top name in the space and the short position still seems elevated and could be higher than listed. Part of me would love to roll out of the '23 calls and roll forward to '24 but I'm going to stick for now.
Looking at the positive and negative catalysts, I don't see enough negative downside to pressure it much below the recent $5 level and the positive catalysts could provide a nice premium increase. That said, I don't think we can match the run we saw when it spiked from $5-$7 to $70 ... that was a MIT (Moment In Time) trade which worked out very well based on my due diligence and an amount of luck while allowed the tumblers to fall just right, providing for my largest single successful trade ever. Getting the Calls for $0 premium back then was something you don't find often and my most recent trade, while attractive, didn't get to $0 premium.
Meme stock trades aren't what they were and while TLRY is still followed and could be a phoenix trade again, my belief is that any combination of positive news, short covering, increased visibility in the WSB space, etc. probably limits the upside to the high $20s or $30s. I would be unwinding the calls into the move higher and probably my long shares as well while waiting for it to settle again.
Still a lot of positive momentum in the space and it's likely a when and not if scenario related to the legislation and decriminalization of the space entirely, a bit like sports betting. But as related to TLRY, that is what I like about their production and distribution specifics ... they stand to gain handsomely if/when it all comes together. There's just no way to know when that happens and keeping your calls well priced and a bit shorter (time) allows for the most position agility.
Cheers all.
TJ |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| To: Trader J who wrote (54524) | 3/28/2022 12:54:59 PM | | From: Madharry | | | | | I purchased initial stake in a homebuilder i have been following . i also sold a call against the moderna shares that were put to me now lowering my cost to $151, my upside is limited to $185 but thats ok. |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Trader J who wrote (54524) | 3/28/2022 5:06:27 PM | | From: ggamer | | | | TLRY - Looks like traders are looking for $10 price by option expiration this Friday. Any thoughts on selling our options around that price this week and waiting for a better entry next week?
Thank You! |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Trader J who wrote (54528) | 3/29/2022 3:48:00 PM | | From: ggamer | | | | TLRY - so you think we are setting up for the same type of scenario as last year? I believe last the broker borrowed your shares as well. Good data point, I sold a few of the $5 2023 calls at $4.25 couple of days ago and holding on to the rest.
Cheers! |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Trader J who wrote (54528) | 3/29/2022 3:48:19 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | | LULU: Earnings after close today. I'm still holding my original position which is up modestly now (1.29%) which is something since my entry was before the bigger meltdown and I considered doubling up in the $280s. |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: ggamer | 3/29/2022 3:50:00 PM | | | | | | | AMC - I bought a couple of Friday Calls (lotteries) but not doing well. Down 50% in a matter of 30 minutes. :) |
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: ggamer who wrote (54529) | 3/30/2022 9:45:38 AM | | From: Trader J | | | | TLRY: I don't believe it's the same scenario because when I took that position before there were a couple variables that provided for rise and the stars had aligned perfectly. While it was my best single trade ever, I could have never forecasted all those tumblers dropping as they did:
1) It was completely off the radar. The shares were at $7 as I recall and I was able to get the leaps at essentially $0 premium. As I recall I paid $2 for the $5 calls.
2) Cannabis was percolating but in was still mired in legalization issues
3) My "what if' scenario related to a democratic controlled power shift wasn't being forecasted by many, if any.
4) Wall Street Bets (WSB) hadn't fully found TLRY yet.
5) Short ratio was rising and laid the foundation for the rise to come.
Basically, all five of those provided for a perfect setup and we can't hope to have that setup quite like that again. That's not to say we need all of those for a great rise. All it takes is for continued legislations/acceptance, a healthy short ratio and WSB to provide for the grease to the engine of those catalysts.
TLRY financials seem to be improving and going forward, there's every chance this becomes a catalyst as well in the space. Their leadership position in supply and distribution could well pay dividends into full legalization. This is the primary variable I want to see come to pass ... want them to be a well run and viable model and then allow everything else to fall into place over time.
Always a good idea to take some profits where you can and not hold it all. I'm not discounting the possibility for another big rise and, of course, was actually banking on it while the premium came down. I tried to find that point where their is enough catalyst to support the premium which would allow me to either profit or roll those options forward without much cost involved and I still feel good about the timing.
I'm not against exercising those calls at $5 to take the shares if I see real improvement and traction in their model into legalization.
|
| | Trader J's Inner Circle | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| |
