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   PastimesThe Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club


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To: Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject4/8/2001 8:24:15 PM
From: geode00
1 Recommendation   of 15132
 
Brinker hits a new low in his show. Fear mongering while pushing Vanguard? What a jerk.

Scaring the heck out of people so they can flood into Vanguard on Monday morning? What a jerk.

Why wasn't he this frightened about the QQQ's? Why was investing 50% of your cash (32.5% of your portfolio) in a hugely expensive basket of stocks during a bear market not more frightening than having your money market fund go bellow up first thing on Monday morning? You advised people to act immediately without a whiff of fear.

Hey Bob, why weren't you frightened about the QQQ's as you apparently are trying to frighten people out of their minds over the weekend (IMO) ? Why didn't you do some research into which major brokerages and banks DON'T have commercial paper in PG&E? Why don't you offer something other than apparently flee to Vanguard? Jerk (IMO).

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To: mister topes who wrote (13317)4/9/2001 7:23:00 PM
From: Chris J. Horne
   of 15132
 
DaBrink seys: long-term indicators improving. Could be a buying op later this year.

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To: mister topes who wrote (7149)4/9/2002 11:15:54 AM
From: Kirk ©
1 Recommendation   of 15132
 
Why did you change your screen name from "Don Lane" to "mister topes"?

I had "Don Lane" people marked and now it is gone with a "mister topes" in its place.

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject11/30/2003 12:37:21 PM
From: stockalot
   of 15132
 
I have been very curious as to why Brinker has lost his popularity on the internet. I had posed the question at Justa's moderated thread where I assumed Bob still had his most ardent fans. Justa didn't want that question asked apparently. So I began to read the context of the moderated thread that now has become primarily a single poster posting economic articles with little discussion of Brinker at all. It is truly amazing. So I looked at Justa's take on Brinker's calls and I think it shows why Bob is no longer discussed in the way he was on this site. It seems even his most fervent supporter Justa doesn't any long believe in the Brinker magic. Here was an early post of Justa's on this thread.

To:Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject
From: Justa Werkenstiff Friday, Aug 14, 1998 9:18 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 15129

** The Brinker Three Percent Rule ** Hey, Mr. Green Jeans why can't I be the first poster here on the thread <GGG>. Welcome aboard.Hey Lars, where are you? Wake up, we are on-line.The market has recently undergone a correction. Last weekend, Brinker discussed his goal for calling "buying opportunities". In the past, he has attempted to call market bottoms "within approximately three percent" of his trigger price level. In July 1996, Brinker called for the market as a buy anytime under DOW 5400. Well it got within less than 1% at 5351. That was very, very close to a direct hit. But don't always assume he is going to nail it on the button as the market has no brain. Brinker regards anything within 3% range as a direct hit. In April 1997, Brinker came within about 2% of the DOW 6600 buy point by going under 6500 for several nights and one night it got into 6400s. Brinker has identified a buying opportunity at DOW 8650. He has identified the benchmark lows in this correction at intraday DOW 8362 on Wednesday August 5, 1998 to Tuesday's close at 8487 on August 4, 1998. So to come within 3%, Brinker is probably looking at a DOW closing low of 8390 within the range of possibilities.Hey Lars, what happens if he is 1% off? LOL.

Message 5502873

The thread continued in that vein for about 15000 posts with Justa and many others sticking to the idea that Bob could no little if anything wrong. As we know Justa was an insider with the Brinkers and even had his own thread on Brinker's site along with the privilege to delete posts he thought were critical of Bob. These days his site is tightly moderated and I was surprised when I went back to see what Justa himself did after Bob's March call in which he advised putting any funds remaining from what he left in the market in Jan 2000 and did not throw at the QQQ buy in Oct 2000 into equities. I was shocked to see that Justa did not follow that advice and in fact seemed to do the opposite. Perhaps that explains why the discussion of Bob has tapered off. It seems many of the old faithful are no longer believers. It also perhaps explains why Justa may be a little grumpy. Ouch shorting the market this summer has not been much fun. :)

At any rate since this thread is no longer used I figure it won't hurt to show an interesting divergence of opinion between the post above, and more recent posts about Brinker.



To:J. M. Blackburn who wrote (2324)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, Mar 18, 2003 6:12 PM
View Replies (6) | Respond to of 2846

JM: I only heard the first part of his show this weekend. I agree with Bob that bottoming is a process. I don't think that process has ended.I have the benefit of hindsight now after that signal was issued. Bob could only make his best guess at that time. So, I have an advantage. Whatever happened last week was not the beginning of a cyclical bull move in my opinion but rather, perhaps, part of a potential bottoming process IMO. But that is my opinion and I am just an internet nobody so don't take my word for it. I do not think this is a sustainable advance. Everything I look at suggests strongly that we topped today and we could have some serious downside the remainder of this week. I think this could be a significant top. The war does not play into my thinking. I agree with Bob that it has been discounted. I said a few weeks ago that we would have our war rally during opex we and here we are. It has gotten higher than I thought but nothing "in" the market has changed my mind yet. But what has been discounted is an easy victory and a return to the good times. So, surprises will be to the downside. It may be a "sell-the-war" event. Yes, there was an oversold state and it could have developed into something further and maybe it will down the road -- and that is some real fear marked by panic selling and a Vix spike to 50. This bottom lacked those qualities. It did have a very high 10 dma trin that was striking. But that has been corrected and then some with the low trin readings this week. And a trin reading to that extent has often been the precursor to further selling in the weeks that follow except at significant bottom. Now if we did have some panic down the road and we did nothing much pricewise, then this would be a bullish hint. There are some potentially bullish signs out there. The Nasdaq did not trade below its 50 dma low set last autumn along with the other averages on this latest sell-off. This is the first time it has not joined them. Is it a sign of relative strength or something yet to come for that average? We will have to see. But it did not come close to testing its prior lows this last round in the 1100s.The dollar had an island reversal and is showing some strength. War rally has lowered the price of oil and that is good news. If we use the SPX as a proxy, this is what I see:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[r,a]dhla...This chart troubles me. You can see we rallied right back to my 50 dma neckline today and crossed the 50 dma. Bullish hint? Maybe, but bells are ringing as I write for a significant top here potentially and it would be bearish if today were a top. So maybe its a headfake for now or just a hint for a bottoming process. But if it goes down like other bear rallies before it, you are right back to square one. If you want to follow Bob, he would probably say to buy on weakness to get positioned. This is not weakness IMO now. So I would exercise patience if that is your choice.

Message 18718759

To:Dave Shares who wrote (2329)
From: PETE from STAMFORD, CT Tuesday, Mar 18, 2003 8:20 PM
Respond to of 2846

DS - I like your idea of dollar-cost averaging on market weakness below the March 11, 2003 levels. It makes a lot of sense. Such an approach could be enhanced by skewing the amounts invested each time so that more is invested for periods where the market has declined a greater percentage from the March 11 closing level. JMHO,P

Message 18719267

To:Alan Bell who wrote (2326)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, Mar 18, 2003 7:21 PM
Respond to of 2846

Alan: Well, in Desert Storm we were fearful right up to the first bomb and once it became clear we would clean up, we rallied. So, what we have discounted before the first bomb, is a simple repeat. Okay. Sounds good. Hope it happens. But I will tell you that in local papers throughout this country and in talk with people, the thinking has been that with the war out of the way we will be just dandy. Months ago in Florida, they were showing graphs on how the Dow performed after a war had started. And so it goes. Tonight, I do not see uncertainty. I see confidence. But once the war is resolved we face again the real issue which still haunts us -- a post bubble market and economy

Message 18719065

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)
From: J. M. Blackburn Wednesday, Mar 19, 2003 7:22 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Justa, Thanks, what you are thinking goes along in general with my thoughts. I committed 25% on Tuesday and cashed out about 20% on Friday. Maybe I was trying to be too cute? The gains for a couple of days where great but of course now I am concerned about reentry. Not being able to move as fast as some of the good traders around here, I think I'll be very careful with the use of shorts if a trend change might be near.Bob did tell at least one caller this weekend not to chase the market, if I heard correctly. This would go along with your thoughts.Also, your post stimulated some good replies from Alan and Dave. Good Luck. Appreciate the reply
Message 18720648

To:J. M. Blackburn who wrote (2331)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, Mar 19, 2003 12:11 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

JM: You do the best you can. I don't disagree with what you did. If we are going through a bottoming process and 800 SPX was a good entry then we should see it again IMO after what I saw last week. I am currently rethinking my short approach going forward.Here is some more food for thought:http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htmYou can see that when the 21 dma falls like it is doing now, you are getting close to a top more than likely. Yet look at where we are in price. Does not look promising.

Message 18722014

To:Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, Mar 27, 2003 7:43 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

FWIW, in looking at some things this morning, I see a bad mix of market complacency (war complacency?) currently. And, unfortunately, the mix is here at a lower price level in the SPX. If you want to follow Bob's call, I think it would be a good idea to be patient here.

Message 18759881

To:Richard Palm who wrote (2353)
From: Wally Mastroly Thursday, Mar 27, 2003 10:14 PM
Respond to of 2846

Yes, in response to questions from people who did not act on his re-entry bulletin, he said to dollar-cost average in during periods of weakness. (Don't chase rallies - like the huge one last week).

To:Richard Palm who wrote (2353)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Friday, Mar 28, 2003 6:27 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 2846

Richard: Okay, fwiw, I would not start dollar cost averaging at this price level if this is your approach. IMHO, I think it is too risky to be putting money to work on the long side right now. My thinking is that we will see Nasdaq at 1253 or lower soon enough.

Message 18765279

To:Richard Palm who wrote (2353)
From: orkrious Friday, Mar 28, 2003 12:42 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

anyone buying stocks here is gonna get hosed similarly to his QQQ trade. (well, maybe not that bad, but it won't be good <g>)

Message 18766874

To:richard sievers who wrote (2357)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Saturday, Mar 29, 2003 6:35 AM
Respond to of 2846

RS: Yes, I have commented on some improvements in the Nasdaq but this still does not change my thinking at this point.

Message 18770296

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2356)
From: Thunder Saturday, Mar 29, 2003 2:37 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

JW,Are you going to dollar cost in, starting at 1253? If so, do you mind if I ask you at what level you would be 70%+ invested? Any detail(s) to your plan of attack would be greatly appreciated (entry expectations, time expected to hold yada, yada). Thanks.

Message 18771359

To:Thunder who wrote (2363)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Sunday, Mar 30, 2003 11:23 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Thunder: Don't know. If and when we get there, I will have to evaluate the market conditions and make a decision at that point. I expect I will likely cover shorts. It might be that I go long for a trade only.

Message 18773617

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2366)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Monday, Mar 31, 2003 8:19 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

FWIW, profits taken on shorts today. Now am slightly long for trade only.

Message 18780066

To:Thunder who wrote (2375)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, Apr 1, 2003 10:29 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Thunder: Your welcome. Don't know if my short term trades are of much use to anyone on this board. Anyway, I took my long profits just now. Waiting to see how the rest of the day develops. Might reload longs if we drop. Looking for a close around 1365 this week to put shorts back on, market willing.

Message 18782105

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2376)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, Apr 3, 2003 5:39 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Welcome to the war rally in this nowhere market and I suspect this is part of a bottoming process mentioned here before. The same mix of topping indicators are abundant once again as we rally on the war and we should, in all probability, sell the "peace." I think this is they key difference between now and 1990-1991. After reviewing things last night, if you gave me a 60 print on the VXN, you would at least test last October's lows on the Nasdaq. Will we get a 60 VXN? I don't know but I suspect we will at least sell off hard once the "victory" has been discounted and so I am positioning myself for this eventuality by starting to leg into shorts once again yesterday.

Message 18791065

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)
From: Thunder Saturday, Apr 5, 2003 1:02 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

JW,Whatever happened last week was not the beginning of a cyclical bull move in my opinion but rather, perhaps, part of a potential bottoming process IMO.Would I be correct in concluding that the potential bottoming process is for a cyclical bottom and not secular in your view? Additionally, do you think the October lows were the secular bottom for the Nasdaq?Thanks for your time.

Message 18801257

Thunder: Yes, you are correct. I would consider this a bottoming process in preparation for a potential cyclical bull. Since markets go hand in hand, I do not think a secular bottom in the nasdaq is possible without a secular bottom in the other averages which I don't think is the case. I do, however, think it is possible that the October "bottom" in the Nasdaq is a better one than when compared to those of the SPX and Dow.BTW, I covered my shorts on Friday.

Message 18802665

To:Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, Apr 10, 2003 10:32 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

I am looking at a complacency indicator here that has been accurate in identifying major tops in this market. Sorry to report, but the bell is ringing now and expect the March lows of the NDX to be taken out. Looks like NDX 900 is a target. I expect tomorrow to be an up day and perhaps Monday although that is a tougher call. After that, it is unknown from where I sit but all roads lead to the same destination. All IMO FWIW. I started to put shorts back on a bit and hope/expect tomorrow will provide better prices.

Message 18826712

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2394)
From: Thunder Friday, Apr 11, 2003 9:46 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Thanks for the update JW. I think the NDX-100 at 900 would be in the ballpark of where Bob had his CB call initiated. To me, the market seems more difficult to try and trade recently - many head fakes, chopping etc., that's why I've stopped and am looking for longer term entries for a cyclcical bull move that may last 12 months or longer. Just a personal choice as I prefer to be going into it long, even though there's certainly going to be some pain along the way I'm sure. To assure myself of this discipline, I am holding onto a very small position some 7% higher then it is right now on the NDX.My plan is to add 20% near QQQ 23.50/23 and 25% every 100 Nasdaq points on down. If I get hosed, I can live with it, if it works great. There are many good traders out there, you probably being one of them, but I'm unable to stomach what appears to be a increasingly difficult environment to trade in on a weekly and sometimes monthly scale (again, just to me). So my solution (suicide solution? <g>) is to buy and hold for many, many months as a bagholder I'm sure I'll become in the ST and possibly IT (if I get hosed badly, LT). Then look for partial exits of moves higher that begin with 25% gains, with possible rotation back in from the original entry point(s).That's my plan as of right now, we'll see how it goes and gets there. Most likely, I'll be lending you some of my organs on the way down by way of SS's though. <g>

Message 18831368

To:Thunder who wrote (2395)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Monday, Apr 14, 2003 5:35 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Thunder: I think that plan may work out. FWIW, I got my bounce and now I am short again.

Message 18839717

To:Neville H. J. Gorman who wrote (2398)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Monday, Apr 14, 2003 9:13 PM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 2846

Neville: I suggested first on April 8th that the NDX, Comp. and Sox may have topped out, the DJIA and SPX may not have done so. I outlined my thinking then:http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=907280Now today we saw the SPX close at its second highest level since the rally began and above the 200 dma. That was sixteen trading days ago. Wow. So, we could go a bit higher on these averages but that is a risky proposition.I still think the NDX and Comp. have topped out but the relative strength of the SPX may have or has slowed the process. On the subject of the NDX, sixteen days ago it was at 1099 and now is at 1048. We did not spike up above that high like we did on the SPX a few days back to make a higher high. No, we made a lower high. And the VXN divergence with price is the same as it was at prior tops after today although we are in max pain period. Here is the weekly Vxn and the lower bollinger has provided for reversals previously:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VXN,uu[r,a]whca...So, the roles have reversed, perhaps, in this nowhere market. Looks like the NDX, Comp. and Sox are/will lead this leg down and the SPX and DJIA will follow sometime soon.

Message 18840648

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2399)
From: richard sievers Tuesday, Apr 15, 2003 12:49 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Justa, sounds like you are not following Bob's suggestions.....? are you? and what do you think of Bob's recent call....thanks, rich
Message 18841289

To:richard sievers who wrote (2400)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, Apr 15, 2003 5:13 AM
Respond to of 2846

Richard: I posted my thoughts about Bob's call previously on this thread. Nothing so far has changed my opinion fwiw:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=18718759

Message 18841558

To:Thunder who wrote (2414)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Friday, Apr 18, 2003 11:04 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2846

Thunder: Yes, we got my predicted bounce/rally. Everything worked out as speculated except yesterday. It was stronger than I thought for that day. Yet I see nothing bullish about what happened this week. In fact, what I saw served to reinforce my bearishness. Next week should be down imo.

Message 18858905

To:sun-tzu who wrote (2417)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Saturday, Apr 19, 2003 1:21 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Sun: Will have to see the nature of the up you propose. But I see next week as down overall and, perhaps, strongly so based on what I am seeing. I am of the camp that the strength in holding this thing up has been due growing optimisim measured by various sentiment gauges the past few weeks. But, ominously, the decline in bearishness has not resulted in higher prices so far.Vxn and Vix are just two examples. Right now the divergence between NDX price and the Vxn by my measure is close to the polar opposite of what it was in early October. I would not want to fade that indicator. I subscribe to a sentiment service that has three gauges of trader sentiment that have been helpful. Often times they offset one another. And sometimes two out of three are on the same side which lends to different scenarios for the coming week. This week all three are bearish. I would not want to fade that here at all. I have been advised that Brooke's sentiment analysis for the short, medium and loner term on the SPX are at extremes-- very high 90s. Long here? I don't think so. Also, Donald Sew has a Tsunami indicator which is based weekly sentiment work. It has been ringing intraday weekly class one sells on the market for quite sometime now since the March high. I would not want to fade that indicator at all either as it has a great track record.So to be long, from a trader's perspective, given the above is akin IMO to playing a possible blow off top which is the bearish equivalent of playing for a crash.I am also of the opinion that IRA money flows has had a hand and the recent AMG data shows a surge in mutual fund money flows and money managers hold no cash these days and I am sure they threw what they got at the market.All IMHO.

Message 18860041

To:sun-tzu who wrote (2422)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Monday, Apr 21, 2003 5:57 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 2846

Sun: Sounds like you don't put much value into this read if you are asking about a negated signal at this point. Anyway, I can't speak for indicator as it is Donald's. I believe a negated signal would take over a week to develop as this is not necessarily a precise timing indicator based on a weekly read. The indicator is 14 for 14 in both bull and bear markets. It projects a drop of at least 18% in the NDX. Right now, he is using the April 7th 1092 high as the measuring point and that could change depending on what the market does this week. Yet the market could start to sell off at any time after he gets the closing signal

Message 18863848

To:richard sievers who wrote (2430)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, Apr 22, 2003 11:56 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Richard: Okay, let's see what happens then...have not changed my opinion here. It seems I am pretty much alone in my bearish view anyway.

To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2465)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Tuesday, May 6, 2003 7:01 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 2846

Wally: Interesting. Thanks. These rising wedges in the Dow and Spx should break to the downside soon enough.

Message 18916855

To:Lone Ranger who wrote (2498)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Friday, May 16, 2003 7:13 AM
View Replies (4) | Respond to of 2846

LR: Re: "Remember, all bull trends climb a wall of worry, and there sure is a lot of worry out there."Disagree.http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htmScroll down to second chart especially. More bullish now than at the December top but slightly lower in price. Negative divergence. Also, reading itself marks intermediate tops and this one seems to be the second highest reading since December 1999. No wall of worry here. boomspeed.com down again to lower chart at bottom and see the same thing (bulls/bears). More bullish now than at December top but slightly lower in price. It could get more extreme I guess. No wall of worry seen here.No indider buying in stock; record insider selling instead right here at this market level. Executives have been uloading into this rally expecting to make more that way than to hold their shares. This is the smart money. What a great deal these guys have. Print more stock, grant it to themselves and sell it to the public and pocket the money. If these sobs thought they could make more money in the market, they would be net buyers and not net sellers. Also, near or record low cash levels in mutual funds.So, let's see if a wall of worry develops when this thing sells off. Doesn't look promising now.
Message 18950278

To:Lone Ranger who wrote (2515)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, May 21, 2003 12:41 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

LR: You had better take a look at the Investors Intelligence numbers today:http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.aspBulls/bulls plus bears is 73%. Now think about that graph I posted from VTO with net bulls in conjunction with prior tops. Tsunami is still on and Monday would seem to be the start.Know nothing about SI.

Message 18963469

To:Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:56 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

"Investor’s Intelligence revealed that bulls jumped again last week to a new 52-week high of 56 percent. The highest level of bullishness recorded for this indicator over the last 15 years (which is as far back as my data goes) is just over 60 percent. So, we’re bumping up against the ceiling so to speak. In that same vein, bears slumped to 20.9 percent, an 11 year low. From there, you have to go back to the spring of 1987 when it a level of around 19 percent. Thus, this indicator is bumping up against the basement floor so to speak. Put the two together, and it’s another fairly solid indication that some sort of important peak has been put in for stocks." Message 18964883

Message 18965760

To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, Jun 4, 2003 9:15 PM
Respond to of 2846

Wally: I am not sure how far this goes in price. Gave up trying to call the top on this thing quite awhile ago. With that said, you are right -- Investors Intelligence is, well, frothy?? I don't think there is any way to paint the sentiment picture other than negative. But these things can persist. What is dangerous can get more dangerous.With that said, my GUESS is that we have a Bradley turn tomorrow and that we will make a short term peak in price within a few days and then sell off into opex max pain only to push to retest the highs in early July. There is a big Bradley turn come early July. I expect from that to sell off into the autumn. FWIW.

Message 19003551

To:PETE from STAMFORD, CT who wrote (2572)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, Jun 11, 2003 3:05 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Pete: Thanks. The responses to your post speak volumes to me. Like I said last week, the extreme readings can get more extreme. Right now the four week moving average is a mind numbing 73.8%. The ten week is quite high but not mind numbing yet at 67.64%. I suspect that the four week moving average has not been this high since 1987 before the crash. It may have reached that high in early 1992. Whatever.The ten week was above 70% a few times from 1971 through 1984. I believe a close above 70% would represent a strong intermediate sell signal on that measure alone making no reference to Brinker's model but only to my own research. If you sold when the 10 dma reached 70%, you should be able to buy your stocks back at significantly cheaper prices in less than a year according to history from the late 60s to early 80s where these extremes were visited.

Message 19023299

Message 19024326

To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2603)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Sunday, Jun 22, 2003 7:03 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 2846

Wally: Investor's Intelligence as a single indicator issued an intermediate term sell signal imo this past week. When the readings get this extreme, the history of this indicator teaches you to take note.

Message 19052289

To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2650)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, Jul 2, 2003 9:23 PM
Respond to of 2846

Wally: What happened yesterday was short term bullish imo. Posted same yesterday. But I veiw this market as dangerous for longs. But I have viewed it that way for a month now and nothing has come of it and so it goes....

Message 19081567

To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2650)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, Jul 3, 2003 1:12 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 2846

Wally: Looks like my June 4th thinking may work out:"Wally: I am not sure how far this goes in price. Gave up trying to call the top on this thing quite awhile ago.
With that said, you are right -- Investors Intelligence is, well, frothy?? I don't think there is any way to paint the sentiment picture other than negative. But these things can persist. What is dangerous can get more dangerous.With that said, my GUESS is that we have a Bradley turn tomorrow and that we will make a short term peak in price within a few days and then sell off into opex max pain only to push to retest the highs in early July. There is a big Bradley turn come early July. I expect from that to sell off into the autumn. FWIW."

Message 19081961

To:tooearly who wrote (2655)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Thursday, Jul 3, 2003 9:19 AM
Respond to of 2846

Yes, even with the economic bad news this morning, I have no conviction that this will turn yet. Bradely should be given a few days buffer. And I would expect they want to see earnings first before they do any selling in earnest. Whatever.

To:Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject
From: Justa Werkenstiff Wednesday, Jul 9, 2003 1:53 PM
Respond to of 2846

The ten week moving average of bulls/bulls plus bears is now 74% as of this morning. Not only is the four week giving a sell signal, but the ten week is now as well imo. Not a timing indicator per se but it is a huge warning flag. Seems like Brinker is concerned as well with sentiment given his latest newsletter.

Message 19095987

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To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (2791)
From: Justa Werkenstiff Monday, Sep 15, 2003 10:57 AM
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Wally: Fundamentally, valuations are nuts.If one wanted to go long, I would wait until Sox 400 --- around the ten week moving average. But do it for a trade only because of the above comment regarding valuations. Did I say they were nuts <g>?

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To: Kirk © who wrote (15113)3/1/2007 8:55:24 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 15132
 
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To: geode00 who wrote (15125)7/6/2008 11:32:50 PM
From: Kirk ©
   of 15132
 
Mark Hulbert on Bob Brinker:

"Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the market. The HFD reports an 11.5% annualized gain for his “Aggressive” portfolio, which is 0.9 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds were invested in the DJ Wilshire 5000 during the times they were owned.
__ March 2008 by Mark Hulbert on Pg 3 of the March 2008 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest"

"Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."
__ March 2008 by Mark Hulbert on Pg 3 of the March 2008 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest"

The board recommended in the title here has banned most of Bob Brinker's critics. There is another Bob Brinker board here that is open to everyone at Subject 10880





The board recommended in the title here has banned most of Bob Brinker's critics. There is another Bob Brinker board here that is open to everyone at Subject 10880

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