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   Strategies & Market TrendsAMAZON.COM RIDICULOUSLY OVERVALUED BY ANY MODEL (AMZN)


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To: Derrick P. who wrote (148)8/28/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: gizelle otero
   of 182
 
I just shorted AMZN as a result of the first tradestation SELL signal on AMZN in history!

AMZN just cannot make money based on the flawed business model. What little growth they will have from here on out will be shared with the book-selling IPOs and startups we will see this year.

Look out below, you FAT PIG stock! It is worth about ZERO a share once the momentum guys start to dump it.

What kind of company is this? ...the more books they sell, the more money they LOSE., What a scam. They should have been laughed out of the underwriter's office!

My advice, sell it all the way down and make some money. This market sucks and the coming months will be bloody in Russia (return to communism), Japan (banks go under as market falls under 13,000), and South America (more devaluations and defaults).


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To: gizelle otero who wrote (149)8/31/1998 11:54:00 AM
From: Michael Sphar
   of 182
 
And its only down $40 per share from the recent high! Couple more weeks like this past one and they will be hoping to keep off the BB before Xmas!

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To: Candle stick who wrote ()8/31/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: thuyen nguyen
   of 182
 
Time to get off the ride. Even @50, it's ridiculously high.

How can a second-tier bookseller and a third-rank CD vendor be valued more than Dow Jones which is a conglomerate that owned wsj.com (one of the only few internet sites that are making money)?

Recent run-up was due to a lack of supply. With more shares available, this tuplip will be wilting soon.

T.N.

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To: Candle stick who wrote ()12/16/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Michael \
   of 182
 
Forget about earnings and expectations, Internet stocks and stock prices in general are driven by supply and demand. Everybody wants a piece of the Internet boom and there aren't just enough Internet stocks to go around. Unlike the auto industry and the emerging bio-technology industry, Internet companies do not require a whole lot of capital. As a result, the number of outstanding shares is small for Internet companies. As long as the supply and demand situation remains, Internet stocks are likely to be driven up and up. Of course, it will take the company ten, twenty years to fulfill our expectations, but the unbelievable PE of Internet stocks should remain high.

The other driver of Internet stock prices is actually the short seller. Consider this scenario. There is only 20 million free floats around; short seller are shorting 7 million shares, and daily turnover of this stock is 7 million shares. Some of shorts are bound to be called when ownership changes. The fund managers who own over half of the floats know this so they consistently squeeze the shorts and easily drive up the price.

As I learned from the Hong Kong market, even hopeless shares can be driven up by short squeezes, and this happened to all 33 Hang Seng index stocks. In August, the Hong Kong government bought from 4% to 13% of the issued shares. For some of the Hang Seng index stocks, only 50% to 25% of the issued shares are free floats. Combined with tough measures against short seller, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded 40% from the bottom. Although everyone knows that Hong Kong is in deep recession, this "fundamental" cannot stop the stock market from rising. The most fundamental model of price is driven by supply and demand. Earnings, expectations, dividends are all further abstractions from reality than supply and demand.

I also learned that short sellers tend to have the weaker hand. The maximum loss of an un-leveraged long position is only the amount invested and the maximum loss of an un-leveraged short position may be unlimited. Take Amazon.com for an example, the maximum loss of a long position from the beginning of this year is $25 and the maximum loss of a short position from the same start day may be $258. This is only the obvious part of the weaker hand story. If a speculator loses money on a long position, he can ignored the losses for many years. But a losing short position must be bought back someday. Furthermore, only shorts can be squeezed. When was the last time you hear a "long squeeze?" Short sellers are at a natural disadvantage because the stronger hand wins most of the time.

Although I have been a short seller in this market, I have just given up for a few months now. The big fall of the Internet stock will come someday as all bubbles will eventually burst. However, there can be only so many who can profit from that one eventual big fall of the Internet stock. If enough number of people are shorting this stock, it will keep going up. So good luck to you all!

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To: Michael \ who wrote (152)12/16/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: Captain Jack
   of 182
 
This is sick...
Price target of $400 ???
How can this be? Not even a profitable company.

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To: Captain Jack who wrote (153)12/16/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb
   of 182
 
I just increased my target on AMZN to $8000/share...this is the 1-year target...the $400 target should be met by this Friday...

jajajajajajajaja

Jimbo.

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To: Candle stick who wrote ()12/16/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb
   of 182
 
boy, I bet you feel silly about now for starting this thread, huh ???

jajajajajajajajaja

Jimbo.

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To: ratan lal who wrote (136)12/31/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: T. Pascal
   of 182
 
>>Are we in the middle or the end of the INTERNET stock run ???<<

As I said in another column, the short sellers are the very ones who do themselves in. Common knowledge is that short-sellers drive the price down. WRONG! Short-sellers are the only share holders (excluding options-owners) who must buy at some future time. Whenever the price drops down on some piece of garbage like AMZN, the short-sellers bump into each other trying to buy. It reminds me of the famous song sung to the tune of "Old Saint Nick":

<cite>UP goes the stock price, quick, quick, quick. DOWN goes the profits just as quick.</cite>

Similarly (now excluding holders and looking at options), the options holders create buying pressure with their puts (some of them naked! Scandalous :).

The fact is that AMZN will not decline until the short-sellers and options people, and the buyers lose interest in the stock. You simply can't go against that much attention and demand (in either direction). You're going to get toasted.

As for whether we're at the end or the middle, I say middle. I say the stock(s) of internet trash won't crumble until at least summer of '99. You read it here first. In the meantime, look to see AMZN actually reach $400 or even $800 due to the pressures I've described. In-frigging-sanity. But what are you going to do?

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To: T. Pascal who wrote (156)12/31/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: ratan lal
   of 182
 
Thanks for your response to my JULY 1998 posting.

We are in the middle of the INUT craziness. So in July we were at the begining of it and those that bot at the time made a killing. Making money now in these stocks will be at the risk of ulcers and heart attacks.

Happy New year to you. ANd I hope 1999 is a very prosperous year.

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To: T. Pascal who wrote (156)1/1/1999 3:48:00 AM
From: Nikole Wollerstein
   of 182
 
"Short-sellers are
the only share holders (excluding options-owners) who must buy at some future time." If price will go to 0, or stock will be delisted
you should not buy back, you also should not pay any taxes on your
profits

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