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VGPMX has lots of base metals which gave it a good lead before gold took off. Since July 05. This fund has been lagging comparing to the pure PM funds. The expense ratio doesn't have strong correlation with the performance. I don't mind to pay more for the best funds. <G>
If you read John Bogle's books (Bogle founded Vanguard), there is research indicating that GROSS returns are NEGATIVELY correlated with expense ratios. In other words, funds typically charge high fees because (a) they are incompetent and inefficient - and need the money to stay alive, or (b) because they are greedy and want to steal your money. Both reasons have very negative connotations for your long-term overall returns.
How do can I x-ray a mutual fund like VGPMX to figure out what percent of it is base metals and what percent is diamonds and what is gold ?? I guess i could sit down with a spreadsheet and a half a galloon of beer and the prospectus - is there a faster way ??
Top Performers - 3 Month (out of 62) Fund Name Symbol Return ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Inv PMPIX 66.03% ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Svc PMPSX 65.65% U.S. Global Investors WrldPrecMineral UNWPX 53.13% U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares USERX 52.35% Van Eck Intl Investors Gold A INIVX 50.24% Van Eck Intl Investors Gold C IIGCX 50.20% American Century Global Gold Inv BGEIX 49.20% American Century Global Gold Adv ACGGX 49.15% Evergreen Precious Metals I EKWYX 48.45% Evergreen Precious Metals A EKWAX 48.38%
I gave up posting the GMI/POG ratio since the source data on the significance of the ratio disappeared. However, I found a chart of the ratio several weeks ago and I think I learned today how to post it.
We are at 1.567, which is very close to where it was when gold peaked. I guess this says we neither over bought or over sold. I don't intend to start posting regularly again but I thought the chart was worth posting and oberving that sock prices have a long way go before they move the ratio to the point where we are likely to get a serious correction.
Now that I've figured out how to post the chart, I've thought more about it and it is not clear to me that the chart helps. The statistics that we referred to originally, provided probabilities like: above some level, there was a 90 percent probability of the GMI being X percent lower in N months. Now that I see the chart for the 20 years for 1960, it is not clear to me that any of it is meaningful; so I'm going to forgt it.
I do have some info that may be of interest but I want to be sure first that I can post the right charts. test: