| To: Wade who wrote (952) | 2/7/2006 7:46:57 PM | | From: unrealistic_thoughts | | | | The key is to beat ^XAU and ^HUI indexes with your mutual fund.
Oh, like my (large, > 15%) gold holdings in tinyurl.com Vanguard Precious Metals Fund VGPMX, with the 0.48% total expense ratio ?? Sorry, I could not resist a big grin when I read that comment from Wade.
What do you guys think of the explanation on the Prudent Bear Website - the presentation, "Why Gold?" at prudentbear.com ?? I have done pretty well in the past 4 years from finding the smelliest assets (gold, vanguard pacific stock index fund), holding my nose, and investing. My timing has been stomach-turning - usually there is an immediate 20% drop in the investment value, but I am happy with the 40% and 200% returns since those initial investments have been done.
I don't think you can buy an asset until you know when to sell. The Dow:GoldPrice ratio, which is historically 10x, suggests a selling price of $1100 per ounce. If we are looking for a bottom in the gold price, a price of either $2000/ounce (or a dow of 5000) is possible. I don't really care which one it is as long as I have a substantial fraction of my assets invested in gold or gold mining shares at that point.
If you look around the world, you see countries such as Japan and China printing up horrendous amounts of cash to try to stimulate their economies, and now the USA is doing it too with its deficits, and you've gotta realize that at some point the central bankers will not be able to sterilize all these outrageous amounts of cash, and they will leak into asset prices or cause a debt-deflation. Then, you need to get really pissed off at how these central banks are playing you for a chump unless you invest in a non-inflatable asset. Then hold your nose, and invest in gold, and sleep at night, soundly. |
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| To: unrealistic_thoughts who wrote (954) | 2/7/2006 8:09:32 PM | | From: Wade | | | | | VGPMX has lots of base metals which gave it a good lead before gold took off. Since July 05. This fund has been lagging comparing to the pure PM funds. The expense ratio doesn't have strong correlation with the performance. I don't mind to pay more for the best funds. <G> |
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| To: Wade who wrote (955) | 2/8/2006 5:23:29 AM | | From: unrealistic_thoughts | | | | If you read John Bogle's books (Bogle founded Vanguard), there is research indicating that GROSS returns are NEGATIVELY correlated with expense ratios. In other words, funds typically charge high fees because (a) they are incompetent and inefficient - and need the money to stay alive, or (b) because they are greedy and want to steal your money. Both reasons have very negative connotations for your long-term overall returns.
How do can I x-ray a mutual fund like VGPMX to figure out what percent of it is base metals and what percent is diamonds and what is gold ?? I guess i could sit down with a spreadsheet and a half a galloon of beer and the prospectus - is there a faster way ??
- Don |
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| From: Wade | 2/18/2006 11:34:49 PM | | | | | | Top Performers - 3 Month (out of 62)
Fund Name Symbol Return
ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Inv PMPIX 66.03%
ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Svc PMPSX 65.65%
U.S. Global Investors WrldPrecMineral UNWPX 53.13%
U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares USERX 52.35%
Van Eck Intl Investors Gold A INIVX 50.24%
Van Eck Intl Investors Gold C IIGCX 50.20%
American Century Global Gold Inv BGEIX 49.20%
American Century Global Gold Adv ACGGX 49.15%
Evergreen Precious Metals I EKWYX 48.45%
Evergreen Precious Metals A EKWAX 48.38%
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| To: Wade who wrote (958) | 6/18/2006 12:12:05 PM | | From: Larry S. | | | | Wade,
I gave up posting the GMI/POG ratio since the source data on the significance of the ratio disappeared. However, I found a chart of the ratio several weeks ago and I think I learned today how to post it.
is suppose to work. What do we see?
Larry |
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| To: Larry S. who wrote (959) | 6/18/2006 12:18:19 PM | | From: Larry S. | | | | Success!! Now to see where we are at the moment.
We are at 1.567, which is very close to where it was when gold peaked. I guess this says we neither over bought or over sold. I don't intend to start posting regularly again but I thought the chart was worth posting and oberving that sock prices have a long way go before they move the ratio to the point where we are likely to get a serious correction.
Larry |
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| To: Larry S. who wrote (959) | 6/18/2006 1:14:56 PM | | From: Wade | | | | Larry,
Thanks for posting it. It worked. The ratio is still very low, however, it appears going through a correction at this moment. We shall see. Good luck.
Wade |
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