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   Strategies & Market TrendsPrecious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)


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To: unrealistic_thoughts who wrote (954)2/7/2006 8:09:32 PM
From: Wade
   of 972
 
VGPMX has lots of base metals which gave it a good lead before gold took off. Since July 05. This fund has been lagging comparing to the pure PM funds. The expense ratio doesn't have strong correlation with the performance. I don't mind to pay more for the best funds. <G>

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To: Wade who wrote (955)2/8/2006 5:23:29 AM
From: unrealistic_thoughts
   of 972
 
If you read John Bogle's books (Bogle founded Vanguard), there is research indicating that GROSS returns are NEGATIVELY correlated with expense ratios. In other words, funds typically charge high fees because (a) they are incompetent and inefficient - and need the money to stay alive, or (b) because they are greedy and want to steal your money. Both reasons have very negative connotations for your long-term overall returns.

How do can I x-ray a mutual fund like VGPMX to figure out what percent of it is base metals and what percent is diamonds and what is gold ?? I guess i could sit down with a spreadsheet and a half a galloon of beer and the prospectus - is there a faster way ??

- Don

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To: unrealistic_thoughts who wrote (956)2/8/2006 7:57:08 AM
From: Wade
   of 972
 
There are quick ways to find what you need at Yahoo:

Metals:
finance.yahoo.com

Performance:

finance.yahoo.com

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From: Wade2/18/2006 11:34:49 PM
   of 972
 
Top Performers - 3 Month (out of 62)
Fund Name Symbol Return
ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Inv PMPIX 66.03%
ProFunds Precious Metals Ultra Svc PMPSX 65.65%
U.S. Global Investors WrldPrecMineral UNWPX 53.13%
U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares USERX 52.35%
Van Eck Intl Investors Gold A INIVX 50.24%
Van Eck Intl Investors Gold C IIGCX 50.20%
American Century Global Gold Inv BGEIX 49.20%
American Century Global Gold Adv ACGGX 49.15%
Evergreen Precious Metals I EKWYX 48.45%
Evergreen Precious Metals A EKWAX 48.38%






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To: Wade who wrote (958)6/18/2006 12:12:05 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Wade,

I gave up posting the GMI/POG ratio since the source data on the significance of the ratio disappeared. However, I found a chart of the ratio several weeks ago and I think I learned today how to post it.

is suppose to work. What do we see?

Larry

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To: Larry S. who wrote (959)6/18/2006 12:15:22 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
No luck. Back to the drawing board.

Larry

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To: Larry S. who wrote (959)6/18/2006 12:18:19 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Success!! Now to see where we are at the moment.

We are at 1.567, which is very close to where it was when gold peaked. I guess this says we neither over bought or over sold. I don't intend to start posting regularly again but I thought the chart was worth posting and oberving that sock prices have a long way go before they move the ratio to the point where we are likely to get a serious correction.

Larry

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To: Larry S. who wrote (961)6/18/2006 12:26:32 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 

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To: Larry S. who wrote (959)6/18/2006 1:14:56 PM
From: Wade
   of 972
 
Larry,
Thanks for posting it. It worked. The ratio is still very low, however, it appears going through a correction at this moment. We shall see. Good luck.

Wade

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To: Wade who wrote (963)6/18/2006 4:20:36 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Wade,

Now that I've figured out how to post the chart, I've thought more about it and it is not clear to me that the chart helps. The statistics that we referred to originally, provided probabilities like: above some level, there was a 90 percent probability of the GMI being X percent lower in N months. Now that I see the chart for the 20 years for 1960, it is not clear to me that any of it is meaningful; so I'm going to forgt it.

I do have some info that may be of interest but I want to be sure first that I can post the right charts. test:



Larry

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