SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Strategies & Market TrendsPrecious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Wade who wrote (938)9/15/2005 7:07:42 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Wade & Dan et al,

I think I missed a couple of weeks or I messed up in posting the data for the second a third weeks of August. Sorry about that. I will post the last three weeks below.

I don't recall seeing anything in Barron's the past few weeks concerning PMs. Lease rates looked like they were going to equal their all-time lows last week but they have bounced back; though they remain very low. I'm not sure what they are telling us.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 8/25, the Barron's GMI was 650.44 down from the 8/05's 664.15. With the POG also down at 436.75 (8/26), the ratio was down at 1.49.

On 9/01, the Barron's GMI was 688.07 up from the previous week's 650.44. With the POG also up at 443.60 (9/02), the ratio was up at 1.55.

On 9/08, the Barron's GMI was 695.18 up from the previous week's 688.07. With the POG also up at 448.25 (9/09), the ratio held at 1.55.

The ratio has reached the high side of the middle range but it doesn't yet suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG or stocks. It may be indicating that interest in mining stocks is beginning to increase significantly.

The ratio a year ago was 1.50, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Larry S. who wrote (939)9/16/2005 4:10:18 PM
From: Wade
   of 972
 
Larry & Dan,

This week we finally got all of the economic news together to convince every one that the economic and financial situations are really not so rosy as many media has reported. Gold is the honest money. It is at new highs of many currencies as well. Next week is going to be another great week.

Thanks for updating GMI/POG for us. Have a great weekend.

Sincerely,
Wade

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Wade who wrote (940)9/18/2005 10:01:55 PM
From: Dan P
   of 972
 
Sorry guys, just haven't been at this web site. Gold, gold stocks, and gold funds look strong, with a few funds already at new highs. Vanguard (VGPMX) has been the most impressive, making new highs steadily, even during the last year's correction. They must have one heck of a manager.

Any way, the XAU, HUI look very strong and I hope that we will see the same success that we had in 2003.

Regards

Dan

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Dan P who wrote (941)9/18/2005 11:22:32 PM
From: Wade
   of 972
 
Wow...that is remarkable!

Thanks for sharing.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Wade who wrote (942)9/19/2005 11:31:49 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan Wade et al,

I will post the GMI data tonight while I'm at my computer so I don't miss another week or two or three.

The Commodities Corner in Barron's this week was all about the gold/oil ratio and how it is at an all-time low. But the story was not very bullish for gold. That suggests to me that gold will continue to move higher.

After posting the prior three weeks data a few days ago I looked a little more closely at the movement in lease rates and thought more about what they are telling us. I suggest that their exceedingly low value means that leased gold isn't being used to hold the market down. This suggests to me that the BBs are no longer trying to hold the price down and recognize that the price will rise. This is very bullish, me thinks. The present move may stopped for a while if the FED raises the rate again tomorrow more than a 1/4 point but that seems very unlikely even though Epstein, in his Economic Beat Column this week, argued that a 1/2 point rise would be required to calm the markets. He didn't say it but it is clear that one of his concerns is the continued rise in the price of gold.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 9/15, the Barron's GMI was 719.55 up from the previous week's 695.18. With the POG also up at 457.20 (9/16), the ratio was up slightly at 1.57.

The ratio has reached the high side of the middle range but it doesn't yet suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG or stocks. It may be indicating that interest in mining stocks is beginning to increase significantly.

The ratio a year ago was 1.51, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Larry S. who wrote (943)9/25/2005 10:42:18 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan Wade et al,

I didn't find anything in Barron's this week concerning PMs and lease rates don't seem to be doing anything special; so I will get the GMI bit directly.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 9/22, the Barron's GMI was 747.47 up significantly from the previous week's 719.55. With the POG also up at 462.65 (9/23), the ratio was up at 1.62.

The ratio has reached the high side of the middle range but it doesn't yet suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG or stocks. It may be indicating that interest in mining stocks is beginning to increase significantly.

The ratio a year ago was 1.56, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Larry S. who wrote (944)10/7/2005 1:04:41 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan & Wade et al,

I didn't find anything in Barron's this past week concerning PMs; however changes in lease rates may be telling us something of interest. I've noticed that lately the gold lease rates, which are very low, move up when the POG moves up. This correlation is the same as during the late 90s when the price was declining. However, it seems to me that it is now reflecting a shortage of gold available to lease; that is, CBs are less willing to lease. This seems bullish to me. The story being told by the silver lease rates is clearer. The lease rates are very high and rising suggesting to me that stock piles are in fact dwindling as has been stated by several gurus.

The copper situation is at least as interesting. Note that its price continues to make to new highs even though gurus continue to say it will fall with an increasing dollar. It hasn't. It is clearly in short supply.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 9/29, the Barron's GMI was 781.95 up significantly from the previous week's 747.47. With the POG also up at 473.25 (9/30), the ratio was up at 1.65.

I believe the ratio has reached the high side of the middle range but that it doesn't yet suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG or stocks. However, I can't access the website with the data on the meaning of the ratio. It may have been shut down. If we can't access it, it is not clear to me that continuing to post the ratio is worth while. I can't seem to find the time to put the data in a spread sheet; so that we could build our own model.

The ratio a year ago was 1.61, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Larry S. who wrote (945)10/31/2005 11:10:32 PM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan & Wade et al,

I see that I have missed nearly a month and I'm missing one week's data for the GMI/POG ratio. Sorry. Our drought ended a early in the Month and it was followed with a very bad storm. So I went from spending a lot of time trying to keep our shrubs alive to trying to fix leaks in the roof. My lesson is to never again hire people because you feel sorry for them. In any event, I haven't had time lately to really absorb potentially interesting info in Barron's so I will get on with posting the data I have on the GMI.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 10/6, the Barron's GMI was 745.40 down significantly from the previous week's 781.95. With the POG also down but only slightly at 472.70 (10/7), the ratio was down at 1.58.

Data for the follow week is not available.

On 10/20, the Barron's GMI was 708.71 down significantly from the two weeks prior 745.40. With the POG also down at 462.85 (10/21), the ratio was down at 1.53.

On 10/27, the Barron's GMI was 743.98 up significantly from the two weeks prior 708.71. With the POG also up at 470.75 (10/28), the ratio was up at 1.58.

I observed in my last post that I can't access the website with the data on the meaning of the ratio. It may have been shut down. If we can't access it, it is not clear to me that continuing to post the ratio is worth while. I can't seem to find the time to put the data into a spread sheet; so that we could build our own model. In any event, I will continue to post the ratio bit for a few more weeks.

The ratio a year ago was 1.52, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Larry S. who wrote (946)11/20/2005 8:40:06 AM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan & Wade et al,

I see that I have missed two weeks so I will post the past two week's as well as this week's GMI ratio bit today. However, it is most interesting that with gold at a several-year high, this week's Barron's carried an interview with JOHN HATHAWAY the Tocqueville Gold Fund manager. Of course, he is very bullish long term and sees major interest coming into the market when the price breaks $500.00/oz. He sees this happening during the next few months. Abelson also had some bullish words concerning gold in his "Up and Down Wall Street" column this week. So that they covered both sides of the debate, the Economic Beat Column this week was written by Carl B. Weinberg, the economist at High Frequency Electronics and he is very bullish on the dollar and obviously not bullish on gold. The Commodities Corner is devoted to Copper and discusses the Chinese Trader that is in trouble with a large short position. The general thrust of the story is bullish - supplies are low and demand continues to hold (it won't drop unless we have a global recession, in which case the dollar is likely to fall hard. In any event, when Barron's starts publishing bullish stories on gold, it is time to look for a pull back.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 11/03, the Barron's GMI was 773.23 up significantly from the previous week's 745.40. With the POG down but only slightly at 460.50 (11/04), the ratio was up at 1.68.

On 11/10, the Barron's GMI was 779.80 up from the prior week's 773.23. With the POG also up at 466.75 (11/11), the ratio was down slightly at 1.67.

On 11/17, the Barron's GMI was 833.72 up significantly from the prior week's 779.80. With the POG also up at 485.85 (11/18), the ratio was up at 1.72.

I observed in my a previous post that I can't access the website with the data on the meaning of the ratio. It may have been shut down. If we can't access it, it is not clear to me that continuing to post the ratio is worth while. I can't seem to find the time to put the data into a spread sheet; so that we could build our own model. In any event, I will continue to post the ratio bit for a few more weeks. However, I recall (I think) that a higher ratio must be achieved before the probability of a major decline becomes substantial.

The ratio a year ago was 1.58, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Larry S. who wrote (946)11/20/2005 9:04:55 AM
From: Larry S.
   of 972
 
Dan & Wade et al,

I see that I have missed two weeks so I will post the past two week's as well as this week's GMI ratio bit today. However, it is most interesting that with gold at a several-year high, this week's Barron's carried an interview with JOHN HATHAWAY the Tocqueville Gold Fund manager. Of course, he is very bullish long term and sees major interest coming into the market when the price breaks $500.00/oz. He sees this happening during the next few months. Abelson also had some bullish words concerning gold in his "Up and Down Wall Street" column this week. So that they covered both sides of the debate, the Economic Beat Column this week was written by Carl B. Weinberg, the economist at High Frequency Electronics and he is very bullish on the dollar and obviously not bullish on gold. The Commodities Corner is devoted to Copper and discusses the Chinese Trader that is in trouble with a large short position. The general thrust of the story is bullish - supplies are low and demand continues to hold (it won't drop unless we have a global recession, in which case the dollar is likely to fall hard. In any event, when Barron's starts publishing bullish stories on gold, it is time to look for a pull back.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 11/03, the Barron's GMI was 773.23 up significantly from the previous week's 745.40. With the POG down but only slightly at 460.50 (11/04), the ratio was up at 1.68.

On 11/10, the Barron's GMI was 779.80 up from the prior week's 773.23. With the POG also up at 466.75 (11/11), the ratio was down slightly at 1.67.

On 11/17, the Barron's GMI was 833.72 up significantly from the prior week's 779.80. With the POG also up at 485.85 (11/18), the ratio was up at 1.72.

I observed in my a previous post that I can't access the website with the data on the meaning of the ratio. It may have been shut down. If we can't access it, it is not clear to me that continuing to post the ratio is worth while. I can't seem to find the time to put the data into a spread sheet; so that we could build our own model. In any event, I will continue to post the ratio bit for a few more weeks. However, I recall (I think) that a higher ratio must be achieved before the probability of a major decline becomes substantial.

The ratio a year ago was 1.58, almost as high as today.

Larry

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)
Previous 10 Next 10