| From: Harshu Vyas | 6/15/2023 3:25:38 PM | | | | | | WBD - Warner Brothers Discovery
A Buffett stock? Think about all of the massive franchises they own and for each age group.
Whilst I hate trying to work out the value of intangibles on the balance sheet, this is one of the few times I believe they're understated.
It's true the company is suffering from many operational problems - probably from expanding too fast - but the underlying business, once (what I like to call) the "teething" pains have diminished, will surely be much more valuable.
I have taken a large(ish) position - over time, as all of the streaming platforms get eaten up by larger platforms, WBD's dominance will further be revealed.
This is my belief, anyway.
I think that this is a similar play to Buffett buying Disney because of their animated film library in the sixties.
Let me know your thoughts.
Best,
Harshu Vyas
P.S - It could be interesting to look at some of the smaller contenders in the entertainment industry. The fact they will likely be acquired by some of the "bigger dogs" is a catalyst. Of course - do you due diligence, thoroughly. |
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| To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (4671) | 8/9/2023 11:07:35 AM | | From: Harshu Vyas | | | | For the record, WBD is the second largest position in my portfolio.
A clear to-be Buffett stock. Added to my position today. Was comfortable averaging up- usually, I don't like to do this.
Earnings SHOULD easily be materially higher a decade from now - and that's the endgame with this pick.
A clear winner.
Best,
Harshu Vyas |
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| From: Harshu Vyas | 8/14/2023 5:15:38 PM | | | | | | Buffett's given the go-ahead regarding homebuilders. Hmm... the start of a new housing cycle.
Ftr, he bought: LENN, NVR, DHI.
I find this behaviour very interesting and will watch the homebuilders closer now. I have discussed them briefly on the Value Investing thread earlier this year with Paul Sr and others but clearly more research is required now.
Buffett also added to COF and OXY.
COF is pretty easy to understand - trades at a discount to book and is an earning machine!
OXY has been discussed on the Value Investing thread.
Best,
Harshu Vyas |
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| To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (4673) | 8/16/2023 12:40:23 AM | | From: Sisyphus | | | | FWIW, I consider NVR to be outstanding company with extremely capable, shareholder-friendly management and a "forever" security.
Long ago I did a deep dive on their business strategy and financials and evaluated them agains their peers. Not only did they blow their competitors away, their metrics actually rivaled and often exceeded those put up by tech market "darlings."
Their "asset-light" business model, focus on local markets and enormous liquid balance sheet creates an economic moat that has proven unassailable over several market cycles.
Unfortunately they are hardly ever cheap.
After watching them for years and missing my chance in early 2020, I was finally able to scoop up decent amount at just over $4k a share late 2022.
I still rue my indecision not to pickup 3x the shares I acquired. Fortunately, it was enough to make it a top 4 position in my portfolio, so all was not lost.
Is it a buy today at near an all-time high, at 14x earnings and 14x cash flows?
Hard to say.
But if you compare to it current market multiples, BRKA just revealing a starter a position, and if you have a 10+ year time horizon, I would certainly bet that you'd beat the S&P500 over that same time frame (though that may not be saying much).
Sisyphus
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| To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (4672) | 8/24/2023 10:32:29 AM | | From: Harshu Vyas | | | | Bought even more - now over 70% of my portfolio. A good company at a foolish valuation.
Am also looking at BUD as a Buffett stock. I rarely drink alcohol so don't know the market well enough - but the financials do paint an appealing picture. |
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| To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (4675) | 8/24/2023 11:56:10 AM | | From: Sean Collett | | | | RE: BUD
I have also been thinking about BUD as I think they will eventually recover from this marketing situation.
Stable revenue and I am hoping they can take the coming economic situation + this marketing situation to reduce costs and set themselves back up for higher margins once things recover.
While the FCF is good their debt situation in the short-term does have me concerned - especially if this downturn does take hold for longer than you would think.
Your thoughts on that, Harshu?
-Sean |
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| To: Sean Collett who wrote (4676) | 8/24/2023 12:22:06 PM | | From: Harshu Vyas | | | | Hi Sean,
Similar thesis to yours - eventually, I feel, consumers will forgive. They have short-term memories.
But the management - maybe it's time for a rethink. They're doing too much to a "quality" company - you could leave it alone with no input, and it'd be doing better...
I also just don't understand why they have such terrible liquidity and poor cash flows - in the first half of this year, they didn't even generate free cash flow. It keeps me from investing right now.
As for the downturn, I don't think they suffer - it's a defensive.
Best,
Harshu Vyas |
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| From: Harshu Vyas | 8/31/2023 11:32:14 AM | | | | | | Expedia - clear Buffett stock.
Low capex, high ROIC, strong earning power...
EV/EBIT under 9 signalling a good price.
Perhaps, a cyclical - though, I'm not convinced travel demand will really slow down.
My uncle and his family are middle class and quite stingy with money - he's going to go on three holidays in the next year! People value these experiences more ever since they've been deprived of it!
Still trading below pre-pandemic levels.
Best,
Harshu Vyas |
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| To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (4678) | 11/17/2023 2:11:55 PM | | From: Harshu Vyas | | | | I'm so stupid sometimes...
I understand the business better now and it's a clear buy-and-hold forever.
My mistake was "trading" the stock and cashing out too early every time I bought it in the nineties, in the hundreds and in the hundred-and-tens. Big blunder - keeping your winners is definitely the right approach. |
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