| To: Les H who wrote (42994) | 7/23/2024 10:03:59 AM | | From: Les H | | | | Inside Biden’s Withdrawal: ‘I Need You and Mike at the House,’ He Told 2 Top Aides
President Biden did not tell most of his staff until a minute before making an announcement to the world on social media on Sunday. Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Mr. Biden went on to endorse, also learned of his decision on Sunday.
archive.ph
His cognition may have temporarily improved because of the Paxlovid and other medications to fight Covid-19. Anything that reduces systemic inflammation (where the body is fighting disease) is going to improve blood flow to the brain.
stltoday.com
He's on the roller coaster where conditions improve for a while, then go downhill, and it all repeats. That contributes to the Alzheimer's denial by him and those around him. Even if he isn't clinically diagnosed with dementia, he may be close enough that certain conditions, such as illness, stress, or lack of sleep, can tip him over temporarily. |
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| To: Les H who wrote (42998) | 7/23/2024 10:18:28 AM | | From: Les H | | | | After Resignation of Israel’s Intelligence Chief, Will Other Heads Roll?
But various news reports have indicated that analysts provided warning three months before the attack. The Times of Israel reports that Haliva ordered that intelligence collection be stepped up, and that it was. But other reports suggest that warnings issued by a veteran analyst and by the junior enlisted cadre known as “spotters” who were assigned to observe Hamas actions were dismissed as “alarmist,” and the idea that Hamas would attack as “imaginary.”
One cannot ignore the fact that Israel’s political leadership set the priorities and created the environment that allowed Hamas to thrive. Netanyahu’s governments over a decade pursued a policy that allowed and encouraged payments to Hamas totaling billions of dollars, reportedly believing the revenue stream would maintain the peace and lessen pressure for a two-state solution. Perhaps just as importantly, government priorities flow down, sometimes subtly and sometimes abruptly shifting intelligence services’ attention and resources. In this case, it meant resources, intelligence collection, and personnel were shifted away from monitoring Hamas to other threats that appeared more serious or to political priorities, like protecting settlers in the West Bank.
thecipherbrief.com
The higher-ups hid the warnings and reports. They threatened the border observers if they continued reporting the Hamas exercises and border incursions.
jns.org |
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| To: Les H who wrote (42999) | 7/23/2024 10:32:58 AM | | From: Les H | | | | Russia's reserves dwindle, but fiscal safety net could last years
By Darya Korsunskaya and Alexander Marrow
February 15, 20244:33 AM
Thinking that Russia might quickly run out of reserves is misleading, said Elina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) pointing to Moscow's efforts to shrink budget deficits and siphon off oil revenues since 2014.
"They did a lot of homework to prioritise the war over social spending and produce a more severe fiscal adjustment than needed to insulate, or isolate, itself from pressure from the West," she said.
"Oil prices at $80 is extremely comfortable for Russia," she said. "Maybe at $60-$70 it starts feeling the pinch, but we cannot start talking about crisis if Russia is selling oil at $60 or above."
reuters.com |
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| To: Les H who wrote (42999) | 7/23/2024 2:54:04 PM | | From: Les H | | | | Rivals Hamas and Fatah sign a declaration to form a future government as war rages in Gaza
BY JACK JEFFERY, TIA GOLDENBERG AND HUIZHONG WU
Updated 1:41 PM EDT, July 23, 2024
RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah agreed in Beijing to form a government together, the groups said Tuesday, in the latest attempt at resolving a longstanding rivalry that looms over any potential vision for the rule of Gaza after the war with Israel.
Previous similar declarations have failed, raising doubts about whether the China-sponsored negotiations might lead to reconciliation between Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip for 17 years, and Fatah, the main force in the U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority that administers parts of the occupied West Bank.
The two groups issued a joint statement announcing the deal but gave no details on how or when the government would be formed, saying only that it would be done “by agreement among the factions.” Both sides said the accord, which provided no guarantees, was only an initial step, and they promised to follow up on previous reconciliation agreements signed in 2011 and 2022.
Israel swiftly denounced the pact. The U.S. and other Western countries have refused to accept any Palestinian government that includes Hamas unless it expressly recognizes Israel — a factor that has helped wreck past unity attempts, along with the factions’ own competition for power.
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV announced that the two sides and other, smaller Palestinian factions signed the declaration on “ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity.” The agreement offered only broad outlines for how they would work together.
“There is an opportunity … but it is not big, because it lacks a specific timetable for implementation,” said Hani Al-Masry, an expert on Palestinian reconciliation affairs.
The declaration comes at a sensitive time, as the war in Gaza rages into its 10th month and as Israel and Hamas are weighing an internationally backed cease-fire proposal that would wind down the war and free dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
One of the thorniest issues is the question of who will run Gaza after the war. The unity efforts are motivated in part by Palestinians’ desire to offer a scenario for postwar rule.
But Israel vehemently opposes any role for Hamas, which it vowed to destroy after the militants’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. It also has rejected U.S. calls for the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza after the fighting ends, though it has not presented a cohesive postwar vision of its own.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ’ Fatah has been deeply reluctant to share power with its longtime rival. Hamas won Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006. The following year, amid escalating tensions, Hamas routed forces loyal to Abbas in Gaza. It has ruled the impoverished coastal enclave ever since.
During the current war, Hamas officials have said the group does not want to return to ruling Gaza and that it advocates for forming a government of technocrats to be agreed upon by the various Palestinian factions. That government would then prepare for elections in Gaza and the West Bank, with the intention of forming a unified government.
Reacting to the announcement out of China, Israel’s foreign minister said no joint governance between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza will take place “because Hamas’ rule will be crushed.”
The agreement also underscored China’s attempts to have a growing role in Middle East diplomacy, after its success in mediating the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
“To be sure, China is still in the process of trying to earn credibility as a global mediator,” said James Char, a research fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Officials from Fatah, Hamas and 12 other factions met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in talks that started Sunday, according to a post on social media platform Weibo from Chinese TV network CGTN.
In the statement, all the factions including Hamas said they were committed to the creation of a Palestinian state on lands Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war.
Hamas, whose original charter directly called for Israel’s destruction, has said it would accept a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 war borders but refuses to officially recognize Israel.
The Palestinian Authority, meanwhile, has recognized Israel and works within the framework of peace deals signed in the early 1990s. Those deals were supposed to lead to an eventual state in the West Bank and Gaza, but talks have been defunct for years, leaving the authority in charge of only isolated West Bank enclaves. Many Palestinians view the authority as corrupt, out of touch and a subcontractor for Israel because of their joint security coordination.
The unity announcement is based on widening the membership of the Fatah-led Palestine Liberation Organization, including Hamas, said Jamal Nazzal, a Fatah spokesperson.
“It’s a long way ahead, and most of it will be implemented after a possible cease-fire,” he added.
Hamas members have never been part of the PLO, the umbrella group of Palestinian factions that undergirds the Palestinian Authority. Husam Badran, a Hamas political official based in Qatar, called the agreement a further “positive step towards achieving Palestinian national unity.”
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration envisions a revamped Palestinian Authority ruling postwar Gaza and has sought reforms that might make it a viable presence in the war-ravaged territory. Israel rejected that idea.
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a smaller militant group allied with Hamas, issued a statement after the talks saying it still “rejects any formula that includes recognition of Israel explicitly or implicitly” and that it demanded the withdrawal of the PLO’s recognition of Israel.
apnews.com |
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| To: Les H who wrote (43003) | 7/23/2024 3:13:13 PM | | From: Les H | | | | Israel, US, UAE said to have held secret Abu Dhabi meeting on Gaza postwar plan
Axios reports proposal similar to that presented by Gallant in January, after senior UAE official signaled Abu Dhabi could contribute troops to a peacekeeping force
Officials from Israel, the United States and the United Arab Emirates reportedly held a secret meeting in Abu Dhabi last week to discuss plans for postwar Gaza, in an indication that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be budging from his refusal to seriously consider the issue until the offensive against Hamas ends.
Two Israeli officials told the Axios news site that the Thursday discussions were hosted by UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed and attended by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and US President Joe Biden’s Mideast envoy Brett McGurk.
According to the report, two senior Israeli officials who had been involved in the formulation of plans for the Strip after the war were also in attendance.
The postwar plan put forward by the UAE, the report said, is similar to a proposal put forward by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in January, which Netanyahu rejected at the time.
The day before the American, Emirati and Israeli officials met, a senior UAE official signaled that Abu Dhabi was prepared to contribute troops to a postwar peacekeeping force in Gaza, making it the first Arab country to publicly buy into the effort being quietly advanced by the Biden administration.
Lana Nusseibeh, who serves as special envoy of bin Zayed, penned an op-ed in the Financial Times in which she called for the establishment of a “temporary international mission” in Gaza “that responds to the humanitarian crisis, establishes law and order, lays the groundwork for governance and paves the way to reuniting Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single, legitimate Palestinian Authority.”
The UAE envoy specified in the article that the PA would have to conduct meaningful reforms, including appointing a new, independent prime minister, and then formally invite the international force to enter Gaza. Accordingly, Israel would need to allow the PA to govern in Gaza and take steps to move toward a two-state solution and the US would also have a leadership role in such an initiative, she added.
According to the Axios report, the Emiratis have told the Biden administration the PA’s newly appointed prime minister, Mohammed Mustafa, is too closely connected to PA President Mahmoud Abbas to be able to lead the necessary reforms. Former PA prime minister Salam Fayyad, a critic of Abbas, has reportedly been put forward as a potential replacement.
Washington has been looking to recruit countries for the effort, as it seeks to re-install the PA as the ruling authority in Gaza while recognizing that Ramallah needs time to reform and that a temporary security and governing force will be necessary to help fill the vacuum so that Hamas does not regain control.
But the Biden administration has had a hard time convincing Arab allies to come on board, as a key condition of theirs has been that the temporary peacekeeping force be part of a process leading to an eventual two-state solution — a framework Netanyahu has vowed to block.
Accordingly, Arab states have been reluctant to publicly express their willingness to take part in the initiative, not wanting to be seen as betraying the Palestinian people.
timesofisrael.com
US, Britain, and Israel have a long history of fomenting civil wars within the Occupied Territories and in countries nearby. Who would want to get in the middle of that situation. |
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| To: Les H who wrote (43004) | 7/24/2024 3:15:54 AM | | From: Les H | | | | Iraq seeks withdrawal of US-led coalition troops by September 2025
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Iraq has called for troops from the US-led military coalition to begin withdrawing from the country in September, with an aim to end the coalition’s mission by September 2025, according to Al Arabiya, which cited four Iraqi sources. Discussions are ongoing in Washington this week, but no formal agreement has been reached, said Iraqi and US officials.
In a press briefing yesterday, US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller noted that the focus of the talks is on transitioning the coalition’s mission based on the threat from Daesh, without providing further details.
The US-led coalition was formed in 2014 to combat the so-called “Islamic State” group, following the illegal US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and subsequent occupation and withdrawal in 2011. Currently, around 2,500 US troops are stationed across three main bases in Iraq, supported by over 80 coalition members.
The exact number of troops to leave remains uncertain. Iraqi sources suggest that most will depart, while US officials indicate that many may stay on in an advisory role. The US aims to maintain a military presence in Iraq to support operations in Syria, where approximately 900 US troops are stationed illegally.
Iran-aligned Iraqi factions have been pushing for the expulsion of US forces, while US officials seek to counter Iranian influence. The talks began in January amid escalating tensions between Iraqi resistance groups and US forces, exacerbated by the Israeli war against the Palestinians in Gaza.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is under pressure from Iran-aligned factions to expel US forces but aims to balance Baghdad’s relations with both Washington and Tehran. Daesh, despite being defeated territorially in Iraq in 2017 and Syria in 2019, continues to pose a threat, with increased attacks in the region, including incidents in Iran, Russia and, most recently, Oman.
middleeastmonitor.com |
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