| To: Don S.Boller who wrote (45) | 4/13/1999 4:57:00 PM | | From: zebraspot | | | |
Don,
I agree this is tulip time, overall - but not our stocks, of course!
(though LVLT is truly in that category now, IMO)
I always keep some way-out-of-the-money MER puts around - can't tell you how many times they have more than offset my losses when the general market headed down -- you can make 100+ times your money on these in a month or so in a sell-off - cheap insurance. |
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| To: zebraspot who wrote (44) | 4/13/1999 6:11:00 PM | | From: Tecinvestor | | | |
Paul, I remember those days in mid 1997. The stock was in the high 30s and low 40s pre-split and was moving $4 - $6 in a day! The stock then went to $60 and split 2 for 1 around October 1997.
Now, we're trading at more than a forty percent (40%) discount to NAV. Ascribing a $12.00 valuation to TruePosition, this stock should be trading in the $90s.
Unfortunately, too much emphasis has been placed on the embedded capital gains issue. In my mind, it is really almost a non-issue.
Once the embedded capital gains issue is properly addressed by management, we should be off and running.
The movement of AGRP these past couple of weeks (and particularly these past few days) is just a tease. Given the recent run up of TGNT, LMG.A, LMG.B and T, AGRP should be doing much better. |
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| To: zebraspot who wrote (51) | 4/15/1999 8:32:00 AM | | From: Tecinvestor | | | |
Actually, Paul, one of the main reasons I feel good about AGRP is because of TruePosition. I do not see terribly dramatic moves in T and it has only been within the past week or so that I feel TGNT will soar. However, IMHO, I think TGNT will stabilize at this level, at least for a while.
There are two things that I now see that will move the stock measurably higher: an abatement or diminution of the embedded capital gains problem and TruePosition.
Regards. |
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| To: Tecinvestor who wrote (52) | 4/15/1999 12:06:00 PM | | From: zebraspot | | | |
If you're betting on TruePosition, you're betting on the long shot here.
TGNT is the horse I'm most interested in the stable, with the T and the Liberty stakes running a close second.
A creative tax resolution would give us a big boost - but it probably entails getting us swallowed up by T. |
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| To: zebraspot who wrote (53) | 4/15/1999 12:49:00 PM | | From: Tecinvestor | | | |
Paul, I'd be interested in knowing why you believe TGNT has real upside potential at this point. It has already made a major move in the past two weeks. Are you thinking that it is an acquisition target?
As for T, I believe that ATHM will be the real cash cow for that company. I personally like ATHM and have been long in it for a while.
I still like the dark horse, TruePosition.
I hope we're both right.
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| To: Tecinvestor who wrote (54) | 4/15/1999 1:35:00 PM | | From: zebraspot | | | |
My reasons for liking TGNT?
No takeover (I hope).
Rather, TGNT is rolling out a great business plan - their "last mile" offering of bundled telecom services just makes so much sense for small/medium businesses that it just has to be a huge success.
It is ready to roll. Competition is limited. The spectrum they own amounts to a great franchise and they got it cheap.
They don't have to acquire ROW's, dig up streets, lay expensive cables, etc., and hope that the business will come: They install their equipment only after the orders have been taken.
Profit margins should be huge. Management is superb. To date, only a small fraction of the 750,000 office buildings in the U.S. have been signed up, and TGNT is getting more than their fair share.
If you have a 2-5 year time frame, even at current prices, TGNTis as exciting a concrete business opportunity as you can think of, IMO. |
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