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   Technology StocksDisk Drives - Buy When BLOOD is in the street


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To: Pierre-X who wrote (65)11/12/1997 12:03:00 AM
From: ET
   of 93
 
pierre.....what do you think of Veeco Instruments [veco]???? i like this company alot...i also own some....their is a veeco thread and website www.veco.com..........thanks.....

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To: ET who wrote (67)11/12/1997 1:43:00 AM
From: Pierre-X
   of 93
 
Re: VECO

Sorry I don't know them.

Surface metrology and etching -- do they compete against KLAC and AMAT? That's a rough business right now.

Who are their customers?

Pierre

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To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (62)11/12/1997 1:17:00 PM
From: Sam Citron
   of 93
 
Bill,

What is CCI, how accurate does it tend to be, and what other indicators (leading or lagging) tend to confirm or deny?

Thanks,
SC

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To: Pierre-X who wrote (65)11/12/1997 1:25:00 PM
From: Ned Woodhouse
   of 93
 
I found your analysis of the disk drive situation to be quite astute, and I'd be glad for your continuing guidance about when to buy into what no doubt will become a very promising opportunity -- but probably isn't yet.

Thoughts/questions: Do you think there's been some improvement in investors' and analysts' understanding of the cyclic nature of the disk drive industry? If so, might buying and price improvement begin earlier in the next cycle -- in anticipation of an upturn, even before companies get out of the red at the bottom of this cycle? If so, what might the leading indicators of such an upturn be?: How can minor fluctuations in the DD bear market be distinguished from a genuine resurgence?

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To: Pierre-X who wrote (65)11/12/1997 2:07:00 PM
From: Sam Citron
   of 93
 
Pierre,

Is there any way to conveniently track capacity expansion or upgrading in DD industry? Conversely, does capacity ever get shut in, or is it easy to convert say from making 2GB drives to 8 or 9GB? Do you expect to see any bankruptcies among weaker players before this down cycle is over, or will the weak merely be acquired by the strong?
What kind of lead time do you figure IBM may have on the new 10GB drive technology, and is it a brand new technology or merely a continuous incremental process improvement?

Mci,
SC

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To: J. P. who wrote ()11/12/1997 3:22:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem
   of 93
 
I recall WDC selling below $5, with a (trailing) P/E of 4...

PTB

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To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (72)11/12/1997 5:06:00 PM
From: Mark T. Heath
   of 93
 
I just went and checked a five year chart on WDC and don't see it selling anywhere near five dollars in that timeframe. Today's closing price is the lowest the stock has closed at in five years.

quote.yahoo.com

Well, there is blood in the streets for sure on DD stocks. It seems no one can escape the Asian currency crisis. Fortunately, I sold half my position in WDC about one month ago, but still hold the other half. Looks like I'll be selling covered calls for a couple of quarters trying to erode some basis to play catch up. Valuations for DD stocks, even using the revisions that have been coming out the past two weeks, look attractive to me now. I guess the clincher to me is that everyone is either downgrading the stocks or predicting nothing but bad times for the DD stocks. Sounds like a buying opportunity if you can show some patience and let the panic/Asian situation get through.

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To: Mark T. Heath who wrote (73)11/12/1997 5:36:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem
   of 93
 
Mark,

Try "max" instead of "5 year", and you'll see WDC trading near $1.

PTB

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To: Mark T. Heath who wrote (73)11/12/1997 5:37:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb
   of 93
 
>> It closed at a five year low today.

WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING ?????????????????

The 5-year low for this stock is around $3 !!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is still up over 6-fold from the 5-year low !!!!!!!!!

It did close at a 52-week low, a far cry from a 5-year low !!!!

quote.yahoo.com

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (71)11/12/1997 5:50:00 PM
From: Pierre-X
   of 93
 
Re: HDD Sector Capacity Issues

All excellent questions, which I can only offer my thoughts. Will continue to research.

>Is there any way to conveniently track capacity expansion or
I don't know that theres a -convenient- way; one has to track whats going on at every mfg in terms of facilities in development and planned. The "Infrastructure" (www.infras.com) publication may track these.

>upgrading in DD industry? Conversely, does capacity ever get shut >in, or is it easy to convert say from making 2GB drives to 8 or 9GB?

Transitioning to higher capacity points with today's suppliers and technology should be straightforward. Drives with near 20GB capacities are already in production using MR technology; IBM and QNTM seem to have the lead in this area. WDC, with their reliance on head suppliers who themselves appear to be behind the curve (APM and RDRT), may be the least drive-capacity maneuverable.

>Do you expect to see any bankruptcies among weaker players before >this down cycle is over, or will the weak merely be acquired by the >strong?
In the past we've seen large, dedicated moneylosers like Maxtor and Micropolis acquired for their expertise and brand name. However PC Week just reported that Singapore Tech, the acquirers of Micropolis, have shut it down.
zdnet.com
The article is really poorly written and very unclear about what's really happened to Micropolis.

>What kind of lead time do you figure IBM may have on the new 10GB >drive technology, and is it a brand new technology or merely a >continuous incremental process improvement?

Are you referring to their GMR head technology? If so I'm not qualified to answer the question of IBM's lead in HDD technology. I exchanged email with an alleged QNTM employee who acknowledges IBM's supremacy in terms of sheer technology, but noted their historic inability to take low-cost leadership.

If anyone has more information PLEASE POST! And correct any errors I've made here.

Pierre

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