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   Gold/Mining/EnergyGold Price Monitor


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To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (115189)9/27/2021 3:28:08 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 116188
 
Interest rates and the dollar are going up, which makes gold a bad hedge right now.
Even Dalio is not as bullish on gold as he used to be.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115190)9/27/2021 3:43:56 PM
From: rdkflorida2
1 Recommendation   of 116188
 
Noticed a lot of TV ads for gold usually a counter indicator. I'm just watching. Thanks for your input.

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To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (115189)9/29/2021 12:46:02 PM
From: rdkflorida2
   of 116188
 
GDX new 52 week lows. Looking for a bottom. Thoughts?

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From: Julius Wong10/5/2021 7:24:35 AM
   of 116188
 
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (DUST)


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To: Julius Wong who wrote (115193)10/5/2021 9:19:08 AM
From: Sun Tzu
2 Recommendations   of 116188
 
You can't do that kind of TA with long term leveraged funds.
The leverage erosion (or compounding) skews it out of whack.
You need to look at the underlying and then make your trade with the leveraged fund.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115194)10/5/2021 10:02:01 AM
From: Julius Wong
   of 116188
 
I don't trade DUST.

I looked at the chart.

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To: Julius Wong who wrote (115195)10/5/2021 10:18:22 AM
From: Sun Tzu
3 Recommendations   of 116188
 
Same difference. Whether you trade it or not, the information contained in a long term leveraged fund chart is unreliable. GDX is what moves. NUGT and DUST are its shadows and are distorted.

Here are two charts to illustrate the point. The first is a 7 week chart and you can sort of do technical analysis on the leveraged fund NUGT, but even so, it is still much better to do it on GDX.

The 2nd is a 5 year chart and you can clearly see that while the two are correlated, the TA relationship completely breaks down when you look at NUGT vs GDX.

7 Weeks



5 Years


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To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (115192)10/8/2021 7:24:34 AM
From: Rarebird
2 Recommendations   of 116188
 
GDX and GDXJ are successful short sales 75% of the time. The Miners are poor hedges, in a down market. As a currency, Bitcoin has supplanted Gold.

One can analyze it or over-analyze it any way you like, in terms of interest rates, USD, etc.

I am just stating the facts.

One can make huge $$$ in the Miners every 4 years or so for about 6 months. Then get out and short the Miners.

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To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (115192)10/8/2021 7:26:12 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 116188
 
GDX has broken down. It is a short and headed lower.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115198)10/8/2021 7:29:05 AM
From: rdkflorida2
   of 116188
 
Not sure which board I posted on, but I thought GDX would go down into the $20s. Doubt it has bottomed so I will just watch for now. TWT. Thanks for your input. RDK

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