| To: Julius Wong who wrote (115195) | 10/5/2021 10:18:22 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Same difference. Whether you trade it or not, the information contained in a long term leveraged fund chart is unreliable. GDX is what moves. NUGT and DUST are its shadows and are distorted.
Here are two charts to illustrate the point. The first is a 7 week chart and you can sort of do technical analysis on the leveraged fund NUGT, but even so, it is still much better to do it on GDX.
The 2nd is a 5 year chart and you can clearly see that while the two are correlated, the TA relationship completely breaks down when you look at NUGT vs GDX.
7 Weeks
5 Years
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| To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (115192) | 10/8/2021 7:24:34 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | GDX and GDXJ are successful short sales 75% of the time. The Miners are poor hedges, in a down market. As a currency, Bitcoin has supplanted Gold.
One can analyze it or over-analyze it any way you like, in terms of interest rates, USD, etc.
I am just stating the facts.
One can make huge $$$ in the Miners every 4 years or so for about 6 months. Then get out and short the Miners. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115198) | 10/8/2021 7:29:05 AM | | From: rdkflorida2 | | | | | Not sure which board I posted on, but I thought GDX would go down into the $20s. Doubt it has bottomed so I will just watch for now. TWT. Thanks for your input. RDK |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115200) | 10/8/2021 7:39:42 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | It is so simple, it becomes so complicated for the Gold bug. Rates are rising, dollar is rising. This is bearish for the Miners.
I am in the business of making as much money as possible in the financial markets while recognizing and minimizing risk.
All the hardcore gold bugs do is provide excuses for why the Miners are declining. I have heard all the excuses over the years and I am sick of listening to them.
I am only interested in the bottom line.
The Miners are early cycle plays that one should get long during the transition from recession to growth.
Otherwise, they are short sales. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115197) | 10/8/2021 7:49:23 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | Oh yes, less I forget, the Miners and Gold are supposedly down because they are manipulated by the financial institutions who hate Gold. What horse shit!!
Folks, the financial institutions, speculators, traders and investors are fair game to making money in any asset class, long or short. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115202) | 10/8/2021 7:53:56 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | | Golf bugs are obsessed with market crashes. But when it comes to the Miners and Gold crashing, they are clueless and have their Gold blinders on. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115202) | 10/8/2021 10:17:58 AM | | From: Horgad | | | | "Miners and Gold are supposedly down because they are manipulated by the financial institutions who hate Gold"
The manipulation of gold is well documented as I am sure you know. It has been admitted to by the federal reserve multiple times, lawsuits have been won against manipulators, and fines have been paid. The mistake of gold bugs is not in thinking that POG is manipulated but rather in thinking/betting on the manipulation ending or failing soon. That is essentially betting on a once in a lifetime event. Never really the best kind of bet if you are looking for a stable return on your investment. But it works very well as a kind of insurance policy similar to life insurance, fire insurance, etc.
Investing in gold miners always sucks as would investing in an any company that produces something that sells for a price that is not allowed to move freely with laws of supply and demand. |
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| To: Horgad who wrote (115204) | 10/10/2021 9:40:38 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | Manipulation is omnipresent in the financial markets. It is incumbent upon the investor/trader to take note and use manipulation to their advantage. Nothing unusual about what goes in the Gold market, except that most Gold bugs constantly whine and bitch about it.
The Fed is the biggest manipulator. It is amazing what the Fed can do to levitate markets. And don't think I don't know that markets move in both directions. SPX will fall very dramatically in 2-3 years once the Fed takes away the stimulus and starts tightening to much.
We are in a way in a stagflationary environment except for the fact that the unemployment rate is falling and growth is still strong.
Gold is not even an insurance policy. With real rates rising, along with the USD, the shiny yellow metal is doomed.
The Fed manipulated interest rates lower and gold responded and hit new all time highs. Now that manipulation is soon going to be reversed, Gold is now headed lower, much lower.
Actually, I question the sanity of Gold bugs to even think that Gold can represent an insurance policy to begin with. |
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