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To: Rarebird who wrote (115169)	8/18/2021 8:55:09 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116756

As a rule, half of the gains are market gains. Another 25% is industry/sector gains. Only 25% depends on the individual stock. If you think about it, you see why this has to be the case. I am, of course, talking about "normal" stocks. This doesn't hold for a biotech or jr miner that might strike gold and suddenly jump 10 fold. Nor does it apply to companies that manage to hop on the early stages of a new technology/industry trend. But a very small fraction of stocks fall into such categories. The majority are well established and well understood businesses.

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To: Kirk © who wrote (115153)	8/18/2021 9:06:13 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116756

I stopped eating red meat and pork ten years ago because I had high blood pressure and high heart rate. I got that down back to normal after a month by changing my diet and taking up jogging again. I only eat raw wheat germ, organic flaxseed, low fat yogurt, clams and oysters in a can, high fiber cereal, banana, kiwi, berries, salmon, rainbow trout, canned sardines, chicken ( without skin), spinach, kale, vinegar and oil dressing, peanut butter and popcorn. I eat literally nothing else. And my blood pressure is now 100/60 with a heart rate of 65-70. I don't miss red meat, pasta, veal, bread or cheese. And I use to eat that stuff very often. I only drink water and decaffeinated green tea I will have an occasional glass of dry red wine. I snack on cashews, walnuts and dry roasted almonds. Gave up jogging and just walk now. Walking is healthier for the heart than jogging. We do most of our shopping at Trader Joes. I don't live to eat. I eat to live. I use to eat a lot of ice cream. No more. I tasted a sample in a grocery a few years ago and it tasted like pure sugar.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:16:46 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116756

You are right about that - though I am not sure about the percentages you stated. Sector plays a big factor, much bigger, I think, than what the market or major indices do, especially for stocks that don't belong to a major index, like the SPX, MDY or IWM or even S&P Small cap 600. Half my small cap regional banks were up today and half were down. No doubt they were affected by the market swoon in the last hour. I keep on hearing on CNBC that the Market is not affected by the tapering. But I think it is very affected by the tapering talk, now that it is coming closer to being initiated.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:23:49 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116756

The decline over the past two days is all about the coming taper and reduced liquidity, of course. I don't see the Delta variant as playing a factor. Sure, growth will slow in this quarter due to the Delta variant and people being flipped out over it, but that is very temporary and looks to be peaking now. Growth should resume in a strong manner, well over 4% once the Delta variant passes.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115172)	8/18/2021 9:27:28 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116756

So in order of priority, liquidity is the first and most important factor. That is what drives the market. If money is being created, it has to flow into something. This is going to be reflected in SPX. Then it is the sector, being home builders, miners, financials, whatever. Some may end up winning more than the rest, but all will contribute to the SPX moves. And finally it is the individual stock. It would be very hard for some home builder to do well while the interest rates are rising, no matter how better managed it is than its peers.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115173)	8/18/2021 9:31:46 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116756

It is really hard to predict which way the interest rates are going to go. There is an equally compelling case for both directions. In fact there was an article in Barron's or Bloomberg that analyzed the professional positions and came to the same conclusion.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:33:30 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116756

90% of my longs have gotten creamed over the last two days. The good news is that I was 40% short and almost all of them have surged for me, gone down hard. Sum total is of little consequence. I am now 35% short as of the close. I am long a lot of small cap value plays trading at single digit multiples, some reopening plays. Should be interesting to see the AAII sentiment figures tonight.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115171)	8/18/2021 11:11:19 PM
From: Kirk ©	of 116756

Congratulations! It is interesting all the different diets there are. I have a dentist friend who has gone to almost zero carbs and just things like clarified butter, bacon, beef (all organic). He's about my height, 6' tall and only weighs 133 I think he said recently. He used to windsurf then switched to wind foiling and now wing foiling. It is easier on the body than windsurfing but a great core workout so he's got abs of a young athlete and he's in his 50s. I'm 64 and walk or windsurf most days for an hour to an hour and a half. Windsurfing runs my HR up into the high 170s and I can average almost 160 for an hour which is really odd for an "old fat guy" but I think I enjoy it so much and it is a whole body workout so I can do it. Walking fast almost never gets my HR over 120 unless there is a pretty lady nearby... My Sleepnumber bed tells me I often AVERAGE 58 BPM HR at night so my resting rate is well below my age. I haven't checked my cholesterol since taking up the heavy walking a couple of years ago so maybe I should since I eat a lot of red meat and pork plus chicken and fish too. My BP is good, not as low as yours, but close when resting. I'm sort of doing an experiment to see if the high amount of walking and eating fewer carbs but not eliminating them will lower my cholesterol or do I need to go more towards a Mediterranean diet like you. I get the dark chocolate covered cashews, walnuts and dry roasted almonds for snacks. I think that is giving me too much sugar (thus keeping me too fat) and will probably have to go back to just the nuts.

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To: Kirk © who wrote (115177)	8/19/2021 12:30:16 AM
From: Rarebird	of 116756

I am 5'9", 152 pounds. I use to eat a chocolate chip cookie, hershey bar and ice cream every day, along with lots of pizza, steak, potatoes and ribs. Then when I went to the doctor and found out my blood pressure was 185/110 with a heart rate of 125, I cut it all out for good. I did a Google search for heart healthy foods and those were the foods I decided to eat for now on. I haven't cheated even once in ten years. I work out with 12 pound dumbbells. That's a far cry from the 50 pound and 25 pound dumbbells I use to work out with in my 40s and 50s. But considering I have a torn rotator cuff ( 90%) on my right side and some neck issues ( C3 and C4 touch a bit), I can't complain. My exercises in those areas have me almost 100% free of pain and discomfit. I am 68. Medicare is great. I chose original medicare because I like the freedom to choose the doctor I see fit and get second and third opinions without consulting with a primary care physician. Plus, we travel around and original medicare is good all over the USA. The Medicare supplement plan pays for the other 20%. I am on Plan G, which is cheaper than Plan F, and covers everything Plan F does except for the $208 deductible. It is cheaper because the monthly premium is considerably less than Plan F. I am allergic to lots of medications so I chose a cheap generic drug plan ( Plan D) for $23 a month. I developed a few issues since I went on Medicare, which, in a way, is good, since it saved me a lot of money. I mention this because you say you are 64 and I take it you have given this some thought. Original medicare is more expensive than many of the 0 premium insurance plans, but well worth it if you can afford it since it provides the most freedom.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115178)	8/19/2021 10:27:02 AM
From: Kirk ©	of 116756

Thanks. I put that Medicare summary into my decision file. We have Stanford Hospital Group close by... I could walk if pushed or take the 22 bus down El Camino if too old to drive and too cheap to pay for an Uber. Hopefully I/we have a self driving car by then... Stanford is rated I believe #12 overall in the US and they have given outstanding care to my GF's mother accepting whatever Medicare pays. We both plan to switch once on Medicare from our more affordable ACA plans. I like the idea of having it all in one place and having a "case manager" who knows me. I find the high deductible plans now are bad because I skip going to the Dr for "minor" things that could become worse at the worst case since why would I want to pay thousands for an MRI just to be told "RICE" is the best way to treat your minor torn rotator cuff tear or tendonitis? I will probably lean towards the HMO type plan that my GF has that leaves her free to go to the Dr for any ailment since it is just a copayment. My plan is to decide by the end of the year so I can sign up in January for my April 2022 eligibility. So far, I don't take any prescription meds but some of my cardiologist friends say taking a low dose, generic cholesterol pill might be a good idea anyway... I think one said he takes it without having high cholesterol. I've been negligent with COVID to do my Tue/Thur 25# dumbell curls and now my RSI wrist issues have returns so I'll have to get back at it and have started with 15# to make it less painful... I'm still old school of "no pain no gain" but I think I'm getting wiser now... like walking, it doesn't have to be painful to be beneficial. Thanks again!

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