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Gold/Mining/Energy Gold Price Monitor

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115167)	8/18/2021 8:39:00 PM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation of 116972

It is all about the Miners anticipating the Fed raising rates a bit next year. That's a tough pill to swallow in Gold Mining land. The Miners enter bull mode during the transition from the end of Fed tightening to the very early stages of a new advance. Typically, it is a 4 year cycle. But given the economy's dependence on the Fed, the cycle may be shortened by a year. It pays to be short the Miners at least 75% of the time.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115166)	8/18/2021 8:45:33 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116972

I don't mind making sector calls. But I prefer to stick with individual stock charts to diagnose and initiate bullish and bearish positions.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115169)	8/18/2021 8:55:09 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116972

As a rule, half of the gains are market gains. Another 25% is industry/sector gains. Only 25% depends on the individual stock. If you think about it, you see why this has to be the case. I am, of course, talking about "normal" stocks. This doesn't hold for a biotech or jr miner that might strike gold and suddenly jump 10 fold. Nor does it apply to companies that manage to hop on the early stages of a new technology/industry trend. But a very small fraction of stocks fall into such categories. The majority are well established and well understood businesses.

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To: Kirk © who wrote (115153)	8/18/2021 9:06:13 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116972

I stopped eating red meat and pork ten years ago because I had high blood pressure and high heart rate. I got that down back to normal after a month by changing my diet and taking up jogging again. I only eat raw wheat germ, organic flaxseed, low fat yogurt, clams and oysters in a can, high fiber cereal, banana, kiwi, berries, salmon, rainbow trout, canned sardines, chicken ( without skin), spinach, kale, vinegar and oil dressing, peanut butter and popcorn. I eat literally nothing else. And my blood pressure is now 100/60 with a heart rate of 65-70. I don't miss red meat, pasta, veal, bread or cheese. And I use to eat that stuff very often. I only drink water and decaffeinated green tea I will have an occasional glass of dry red wine. I snack on cashews, walnuts and dry roasted almonds. Gave up jogging and just walk now. Walking is healthier for the heart than jogging. We do most of our shopping at Trader Joes. I don't live to eat. I eat to live. I use to eat a lot of ice cream. No more. I tasted a sample in a grocery a few years ago and it tasted like pure sugar.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:16:46 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116972

You are right about that - though I am not sure about the percentages you stated. Sector plays a big factor, much bigger, I think, than what the market or major indices do, especially for stocks that don't belong to a major index, like the SPX, MDY or IWM or even S&P Small cap 600. Half my small cap regional banks were up today and half were down. No doubt they were affected by the market swoon in the last hour. I keep on hearing on CNBC that the Market is not affected by the tapering. But I think it is very affected by the tapering talk, now that it is coming closer to being initiated.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:23:49 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116972

The decline over the past two days is all about the coming taper and reduced liquidity, of course. I don't see the Delta variant as playing a factor. Sure, growth will slow in this quarter due to the Delta variant and people being flipped out over it, but that is very temporary and looks to be peaking now. Growth should resume in a strong manner, well over 4% once the Delta variant passes.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115172)	8/18/2021 9:27:28 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116972

So in order of priority, liquidity is the first and most important factor. That is what drives the market. If money is being created, it has to flow into something. This is going to be reflected in SPX. Then it is the sector, being home builders, miners, financials, whatever. Some may end up winning more than the rest, but all will contribute to the SPX moves. And finally it is the individual stock. It would be very hard for some home builder to do well while the interest rates are rising, no matter how better managed it is than its peers.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115173)	8/18/2021 9:31:46 PM
From: Sun Tzu	of 116972

It is really hard to predict which way the interest rates are going to go. There is an equally compelling case for both directions. In fact there was an article in Barron's or Bloomberg that analyzed the professional positions and came to the same conclusion.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170)	8/18/2021 9:33:30 PM
From: Rarebird	of 116972

90% of my longs have gotten creamed over the last two days. The good news is that I was 40% short and almost all of them have surged for me, gone down hard. Sum total is of little consequence. I am now 35% short as of the close. I am long a lot of small cap value plays trading at single digit multiples, some reopening plays. Should be interesting to see the AAII sentiment figures tonight.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (115171)	8/18/2021 11:11:19 PM
From: Kirk ©	of 116972

Congratulations! It is interesting all the different diets there are. I have a dentist friend who has gone to almost zero carbs and just things like clarified butter, bacon, beef (all organic). He's about my height, 6' tall and only weighs 133 I think he said recently. He used to windsurf then switched to wind foiling and now wing foiling. It is easier on the body than windsurfing but a great core workout so he's got abs of a young athlete and he's in his 50s. I'm 64 and walk or windsurf most days for an hour to an hour and a half. Windsurfing runs my HR up into the high 170s and I can average almost 160 for an hour which is really odd for an "old fat guy" but I think I enjoy it so much and it is a whole body workout so I can do it. Walking fast almost never gets my HR over 120 unless there is a pretty lady nearby... My Sleepnumber bed tells me I often AVERAGE 58 BPM HR at night so my resting rate is well below my age. I haven't checked my cholesterol since taking up the heavy walking a couple of years ago so maybe I should since I eat a lot of red meat and pork plus chicken and fish too. My BP is good, not as low as yours, but close when resting. I'm sort of doing an experiment to see if the high amount of walking and eating fewer carbs but not eliminating them will lower my cholesterol or do I need to go more towards a Mediterranean diet like you. I get the dark chocolate covered cashews, walnuts and dry roasted almonds for snacks. I think that is giving me too much sugar (thus keeping me too fat) and will probably have to go back to just the nuts.

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