| To: Rarebird who wrote (115161) | 8/18/2021 6:40:43 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | | Lower inflation and lower growth is what is in store for Q4. Neither of which bodes well for commodities. I know you say that you don't like macro calls, but anytime you look at a group, like you just did with GDX, you are making a macro call. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115167) | 8/18/2021 8:39:00 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | It is all about the Miners anticipating the Fed raising rates a bit next year. That's a tough pill to swallow in Gold Mining land.
The Miners enter bull mode during the transition from the end of Fed tightening to the very early stages of a new advance. Typically, it is a 4 year cycle. But given the economy's dependence on the Fed, the cycle may be shortened by a year.
It pays to be short the Miners at least 75% of the time. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (115169) | 8/18/2021 8:55:09 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | As a rule, half of the gains are market gains. Another 25% is industry/sector gains. Only 25% depends on the individual stock. If you think about it, you see why this has to be the case.
I am, of course, talking about "normal" stocks. This doesn't hold for a biotech or jr miner that might strike gold and suddenly jump 10 fold. Nor does it apply to companies that manage to hop on the early stages of a new technology/industry trend. But a very small fraction of stocks fall into such categories. The majority are well established and well understood businesses. |
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| To: Kirk © who wrote (115153) | 8/18/2021 9:06:13 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | I stopped eating red meat and pork ten years ago because I had high blood pressure and high heart rate. I got that down back to normal after a month by changing my diet and taking up jogging again.
I only eat raw wheat germ, organic flaxseed, low fat yogurt, clams and oysters in a can, high fiber cereal, banana, kiwi, berries, salmon, rainbow trout, canned sardines, chicken ( without skin), spinach, kale, vinegar and oil dressing, peanut butter and popcorn. I eat literally nothing else. And my blood pressure is now 100/60 with a heart rate of 65-70.
I don't miss red meat, pasta, veal, bread or cheese. And I use to eat that stuff very often.
I only drink water and decaffeinated green tea I will have an occasional glass of dry red wine.
I snack on cashews, walnuts and dry roasted almonds.
Gave up jogging and just walk now. Walking is healthier for the heart than jogging.
We do most of our shopping at Trader Joes.
I don't live to eat. I eat to live.
I use to eat a lot of ice cream. No more. I tasted a sample in a grocery a few years ago and it tasted like pure sugar. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170) | 8/18/2021 9:16:46 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | You are right about that - though I am not sure about the percentages you stated. Sector plays a big factor, much bigger, I think, than what the market or major indices do, especially for stocks that don't belong to a major index, like the SPX, MDY or IWM or even S&P Small cap 600.
Half my small cap regional banks were up today and half were down. No doubt they were affected by the market swoon in the last hour.
I keep on hearing on CNBC that the Market is not affected by the tapering. But I think it is very affected by the tapering talk, now that it is coming closer to being initiated. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (115170) | 8/18/2021 9:23:49 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | | The decline over the past two days is all about the coming taper and reduced liquidity, of course. I don't see the Delta variant as playing a factor. Sure, growth will slow in this quarter due to the Delta variant and people being flipped out over it, but that is very temporary and looks to be peaking now. Growth should resume in a strong manner, well over 4% once the Delta variant passes. |
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