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   Biotech / MedicalSIBIA Neurosciences (SIBI)

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (477)8/2/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Pseudo Biologist
   of 579
 
Sure, but did he have Alza too?

PB
(who only had SUGN of the "club list" -g-)

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To: Muse who wrote (476)8/2/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche
   of 579
 
Jim:

>> Somehow, I have a feeling that this isn't the last time this
month either! <<

Hope so! Sure did take long enough to get rolling. This is a strange one. The VGCC/pain program is worth the MRK bucks alone, and I'm certain that it's the MRK focus.

Rick


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To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (478)8/2/1999 2:31:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche
   of 579
 
-- very big grin -- (eom)

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To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (478)8/2/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Biomaven
   of 579
 
Sure, but did he have Alza too?

No Alza - if nothing else there was that SEPR analyst that told everyone to sell SEPR and buy AZA. <g>

I've also had a few entrants (fortunately mostly in even smaller amounts) in the "Greatest biotech debacles of the Millennium club." <g>

I take this "bundle" business seriously with that chunk of my portfolio that is not one of my few big bets.

Peter

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (480)8/2/1999 2:41:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland
   of 579
 
What is all the talk about taxes--
you fellas don't trade in an IRA?

You know, that gain today really saved my
butt. One or two more hits, and I was going
to convert the portfolio to cash, just so
I could walk away with what I started this
year. Needed a little breathing room, came
just in time. Sorry to see it go so cheap,
when it was supposed to have had that ten
bagger potential...but survival is acceptable.
55% gains in the six months I've held it,
acceptable.

Thanks Rick...and much thanks to everybody else
on this thread. What are your favorite neuros
kids? I'm holding NBIX--what else is cheap
right now? (mainly just chatting it up--I'm
not really shopping--I have quite enough of
these small biotechs without adding another
to worry about...)

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To: Biomaven who wrote (481)8/2/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: nigel bates
   of 579
 
Isn't anyone at all disappointed by this ? Another promising small cap gets bought for a (relatively) miserly premium. One day, someone will make a fortune out of all the science developed by the better of the small biotechs, but it looks as though it won't be those smart enough - like you guys - to have gambled on it early.

It seems to me that the major 'ethical' drug companies are the ultimate insiders in this market. How much upside can there be on the third tier if they get taken out every time they look like getting somewhere ?

Still, the BTRN price action gives me a little hope (thanks Rick).

nig

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To: nigel bates who wrote (483)8/2/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Biomaven
   of 579
 
nig,

Sure I am a little disappointed. However, given that they just had some shaky trial results, one can't whine too much.

How much upside can there be on the third tier if they get taken out every time they look like getting somewhere ?

Plenty of upside if they can bring a drug or two to market. Looked at AMGN's market cap recently? <g>

Alternatively, if the pharmas go into a feeding frenzy, then prices and premiums will rise.

Peter


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To: nigel bates who wrote (483)8/2/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: LLCF
   of 579
 
<Isn't anyone at all disappointed by this ? >

I was at first [for about 1 hour], but no longer... I've been sniffing around new opportunities and you know what... there are LOTS. Thanks Rick [again] and everyone.

Investing my new found dough into CLTR,CGPI,GLIA... and we've got the INCY court date coming up! Courthouse lotto anyone?

DAK

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To: Biomaven who wrote (484)8/2/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: nigel bates
   of 579
 
Peter,

I acknowledge a little hyperbole in the post, but on the other hand, I don't see a 'feeding frenzy'. If you compare what (eg) SUGN and SIBI have expended on research with what was paid for them (and what they might generate in the future), then the pharmas are getting a pretty good deal.

Essentially my question is whether the risk/reward stacks up any more in the third tier. Wouldn't one be better off buying (eg) MLNM and INCY, and just forgetting about them for 5 years or so ?

nig

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To: nigel bates who wrote (483)8/2/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche
   of 579
 
Nigel:

You're welcome. However, thanks are due to the entire SI biotech community..... I get to focus on a few companies because others that I trust are working just as hard on their own.

You may be "King of the Weird Stuff", but the truly fine investments derive from finding the hidden little curiosities.

Yes, I'm disappointed. However, given that VCs didn't step in and consolidate when it was apparent that it was big bucks return, I sort of became committed to going with merged entities or pharmas that *did* demo wisdom. I guess that, despite the lack of attention to "pipe", I'll now have to include MRK on that list.

I really, really, really, really, really want to see MLNM pick up some of the cheap science that is out there. I suspect that they're looking mostly at private companies. There are a gazillion of them. Good ones.

>> One day, someone will make a fortune out of all
the science developed by the better of the small biotechs, but it looks as though it
won't be those smart enough - like you guys - to have gambled on it early. <<

Again, I seriously recommend that, among the biotechs that one knows well, both trading and hold positions are warranted. The returns, for those with a feel for the sector and patience, are rather nice.

Given that we're just ripping, how disappointed can we be right now? There will be another potential 10-bagger along any moment now. Let's find it.

Rick

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