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I THINK IT'S ABOUT TIME TO START GETTING EXCITED ABOUT.. BFCI.. AGAIN....November sales should be out late next week....Don't be surprised if Braun's comes in close to meeting the original #'s for the Q.....I think Nick Cook is regretting his comments made October 31st....the shame here will be for the company to come thru, but the street once burned will be slow to come back and support this company as before....
HAPPY SHOPPING!!!!!!!!!!!!TOMORROW IS THE BIGGEST SELLING DAY OF THE YEAR......WILL YOU BE OUT THERE BUYING???
>>after sluggish start, Q3 sales rebounding robustly with good potential for positive EPS surprise. >>solid sales momentum should continue into Q4. >>stock sells at dramatic valuation discount to the industry average despite equivalent if not better slaes and earnings monentum.
>>Braun's valuation of 10.5x this fye EPS is sharply out of sync with the current industry average of 23.7x (the average of 40 specialty apparel retailers). The company's small market capitalizaton, under $50 million, and its relatively recent escape from Chapter 11 are probably the key issues. The company's balance sheet is solid, however, and its current sales momentum certainly would put it in the top half of the industry average. Moreover, our expectation of another 18% EPS gain in 1998 would put it among the upper one-third in this segment. We believe the solid comparable same-store gain in november and a positive EPS surprise for Q3 could produce a quick 25-30% price spike. we recommend aggressive purchase of the stock at current levels.
ps. J.C. Bradford & Co. makes a market in this security.
i plan on sitting in on conference call this a.m., and will have more info later.....appears 3rd Q came out ok.....but, company is noting that 4th Q comparisons will be going up against exceptionally strong performances in this Q last year.....hopefully, the conf. call will have positive overtones.....
>>>>CONFERCNCE CALL NOTES<<<< well, after seeing the dow jones story headline (Braun's Fashions Sees 4Q Comparisons Difficult), i was kinda nervous, but the headline was not accurate in the sense of that there are problems ahead....the facts are that last year's 4th Q was extremely good and Braun's acknowledges that they won't that good this year....also, last year had no tax cost impact, due to carryover losses.... >>company looks for mid-single digit sales growth going forward. >>store count is 180; they will be closing 1 store in february. >>no new stores until march. >>sweaters, knits, trousers----are the best performing segments. >>december on target to make projections. >>they have an optimistic view of business going forward. >>very comfortable with estimates for the 4th Q. >>S.E. Asia; it's too early to tell the impact of cast benefits; but the company does buy in U.S. $. >>CEO Cook stock sales were for diversation. he had held stock 11 years. he still has options on 96,000 shares. the sell was dictated by company policy regarding the timing of sell; this was the window Cook had. >>there were 10 analysts with questions. >>Cook was called down for not doing a better job of communicating and disclosure of the press release today; ie, the way that dowjones presented the story with neagtive overtones; when in fact this was a very good Q. >>company, as best as they could considering the limitations concerning forward-looking statements, does feel good about the business going forward. ....they have to do the obligatory CYA.
i won't get into any #'s here, just my initial observations of the CC.
>>>>GOOD DECEMBER<<<< i expect good december sales numbers to be reported out by braun's next week. they will be reporting their december #'s for the 4-week period ending last saturday (12/27) early next week. i believe maybe on tuesday. this has not been a pretty picture the past 10 days. today was encouraging though. maybe some leakage of the good news??