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   Strategies & Market TrendsA.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board


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From: OldAIMGuy9/10/2024 7:46:40 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
......further discussion on AIM Cash, Market Risk and various methods of assessing it. A follow-up to Clive's postings................

investorshub.advfn.com

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy9/23/2024 10:28:45 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
v-Wave Market Risk indicator shows longer term diversified investments should be starting with around 34% cash held in reserve.


For comparison, here's my Market Risk Indicator (MRI) X-ray of market risk:


The MRI is showing 33% suggested cash - not much different from what the v-Wave is indicating for diversified investments. Neither is saying it's a bargain right now.

Best wishes,
OAG

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18861)9/23/2024 10:31:17 AM
From: OldAIMGuy
   of 18881
 
One more item for this week's review. It's the long term "success rate" of the MRI for 38 years.



Neither the bullish or bearish signals were perfect in their calls but both were quite a bit better than the flip of a coin.

Best wishes,
OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy11/6/2024 11:23:53 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
These results were through the end of October - Not including the election results!

International ETF Portfolio

(21% Cash held in Reserve)

US Domestic ETF Portfolio

(16% Cash held in Reserve)

10 Stock "Sandbox" Portfolio

(20% Cash held in Reserve)

Retirement Account Built with Twinvest thru 2023, now managed with AIM

(19% Cash held in reserve)

These accounts were mostly flat for October but cash grew in some cases. All in all, 2024 has been a good year for these accounts.

Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy11/18/2024 8:38:03 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
You may have noted a bit less enthusiasm from investors last week. As mentioned here, the markets seemed to have been caught up in "too much, too fast" in their assessment of future gains. The four components of the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator all rose in risk assessment with three now showing Caution as their signal. Here's how they look as of last Friday's close:


(A significant spike in speculative activity coincides with the inrush of capital)


(Confusion as to the markets' next direction shows here with very high Divergence)


(Stock Valuations have been in the Caution range for essentially all of 2024)

Summarizing all this cautionary signaling in the SignalPoint MRI, we see it rise two points to 37% suggested cash being held in reserve indicating 63% invested. The MRI "Oscillator" shows a very strong upward risk pressure of +10.


(The tail up end takes the MRI to the highest level in 2024 and the highest since early in 2022)

We see correlation in the v-Wave as well:

(while not as strong an up-tick as we see in the MRI, the v-Wave is also in the "nervous" range)

Keep some MAALOX handy, we'll let these risky times pass.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy11/25/2024 12:09:39 PM
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
Some earnings reports and some flattening of the S&P500's upward movement helped to contain market risk as we head into Thanksgiving Weekend. SignalPoint's MRI comes in up one point at 38 with an Oscillator of +4. The Oscillator suggests there's still upward risk pressure while the MRI itself is well into its Caution range.



From Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" we derive the v-Wave risk indicator. It shows 34 for the 3-5 year outlook, down a point from last week but still in its own Caution range.



There's a cumulative effect of these indicators being in the Caution range. It's best shown in a histogram such as this:

In this image we see the long trend of below median v-Wave while markets were down or flat being followed by nearly a full year of it being now above the median value and the extraordinary rise of the three indexes. Data from 1982 to Present show that these long trends should be heeded as being bullish or bearish. Think of accumulating risk as wear and tear on an investment machine. At 12 months above median risk, this machine is ready for a rebuild. Market Drivers aren't ready to pull into the Pits for maintenance at this point. Let's hope they're watching their temperature and oil pressure gauges!

As for my own activities, I've been following my Motto: "Buy from the Scared, Sell to the Greedy!" There has been a heavy emphasis on securing incremental sales of stock and fund inventories in recent months.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy12/4/2024 9:09:31 AM
   of 18881
 
November proved to be a pretty good month for my Equity Warehouse - at least the Domestic U.S. portion. Here's the results through the 1st 11 months:

International Style ETFs

(21% Cash in Reserve)

Domestic U.S. Sector ETFs

(17% Cash in Reserve)

10 Common Stocks Composite

(17% Cash in Reserve)

Simple Growth ETF AIM Portfolio

(19% Cash in Reserve)

Growth in value in the domestic portfolios was enough for some AIM directed selling and almost enough to keep Cash growing at the same rate as the overall portfolio. For instance, the simple Growth ETF portfolio grew 5.9% for the month of November and the cash held in reserve stayed at 19%. The big exception was the Sandbox portfolio which grew 11.4% during the month but the cash dropped in percentage from 20% to 17%. That was partly because there was both AIM directed buying and selling in that portfolio occurring during the month.

Now there's just a month to finish for Year 2024.

AIM for Portfolio Management,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy12/9/2024 8:59:05 AM
   of 18881
 
Market Risk Report

Market participants' enthusiasm seems to have no bounds. New highs in the major market indexes are mundane because of frequency these days. I'm not complaining as this has allowed frequent inventory reductions in investment inventory as prices have been rising.

Not to be like the Grinch, but maybe more like Scrooge, there are measurable increases in stock/fund market risk that have come with the index's upward slope. The v-Wave 3-5 Year outlook is showing caution with a value of 34% suggested cash. For the 18 Month time horizon the v-Wave is far more cautious at 48% suggested cash held in reserve.


The SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator has similar posture with 37% cash reserve suggested. These values are unchanged from previous weeks. The MRI Oscillator is +3 showing only mild upward risk pressure.


Let's review the three main objectives of investors:
A) Price Appreciation over Time
B) Dividend Capture over Time
C) Profitable Volatility Capture over Time........

Right now both the v-Wave and the MRI are showing lower potential for "A." Some are saying stocks are "priced to perfection" and won't stand much bad news at this point. With the higher share prices, we're also seeing lower current yields, so "B" isn't as good now as at other times. Value Line shows its dividend yield as being 1.9% currently. Its long term median is 2.2%, so the market isn't offering us very generous coupons to clip on new dividend investments. "C" looks to be where our efforts will be most rewarded in the near term should the markets consolidate or retreat from current levels.

We've had adequate opportunity to "sell to the greedy" during much of 2024 to build out our reserves of cash. Will 2025 be a year to "buy from the scared?" Our stock/fund inventory management method seems to be suggesting that could be in the future. But, remember that it takes more than a 15% discount from our most recent sale prices before we start to shift our cash back toward stock/fund inventory.


Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18867)12/13/2024 3:39:29 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round
1 Recommendation   of 18881
 
> Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

I went to ~60% cash two days ago since this will be the 5th time in my life I've seen a substantial and unsustainable market bubble happening.

I have the the IRS Wash-Rule to think about for investing in January if I do for the small loss I'd like to write off, but basically I sold to lock in my gains for this year, which were substantial on a percentage basis.

Tax loss selling are eating those stocks up slowly and I expect more of that to come, save whatever Santa Claus seasonality rally that might happen before Christmas.

I expect volatility will be huge next month as Mr. Market goes parabolic yet again. I don't day trade or short, I leave that to the experts like Trader J, whom I've learned a great deal from over the years on SI and who has mostly moved on to the greener pastures at Reddit.

I also fly by the seat of my pants a lot in the markets, metaphorically, of course. I just like to watch the patterns and the pretty lights. :-)

Thank you for confirming with nice charts and graphs what I've been seeing.

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To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (18868)12/14/2024 12:00:20 PM
From: OldAIMGuy
   of 18881
 
Good morning ZDR, Re: Market Risk...............

Market Risk Assessment.......................................


Long term v-Wave remained the same, 18 month v-Wave came down a bit. LT v-Wave is still 34% suggested cash where the ST v-Wave came down to 46% cash suggested.


The SignalPoint MRI rose this week as we see the indexes flattening out a bit. The MRI shows 38% cash suggested and a +6 MRI Oscillator indicating more steeply rising risk.

Both the MRI and the v-Wave cash levels are for diversified portfolios and not individual company stocks. Single stock risk would argue for multiplying the MRI and V-Wave values by 1.5x to be on the safe side.

Looking at these two indicators, it would appear the MRI has some shorter term aspects than the LT v-Wave, but not as short as the ST v-Wave. Studying the components of the MRI shows three of the four components rising in risk this week and one declining slightly. Three are currently in their own "Caution" ranges (a full standard deviation away from their medians) with one being neutral.

As we view just how far away each market risk measure is from its own "Proactive" range, we see this isn't a time to be speculating on new, higher risk investments. Both are suggesting it's a great time to keep some powder dry while we await better times for new money investing and AIM cash reserves shifting to the invested side. This week's 13 Week Treasury Coupon rate is 4.408% yield, which is more than two times the Value Line Dividend rate. So, maybe Cash isn't such a bad place to vacation while we wait for better investment weather.

I'm sorry I don't have anything more optimistic to report, but like on the old "Dragnet" TV show, I'm presenting "Just the Facts, Ma'am..."

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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