| From: OldAIMGuy | 4/28/2024 11:53:38 AM | | | | | | While the 3-5 Year vW didn't change, that's a nice reduction in apparent market risk for the shorter range 18 Month view.
AIM / v-Wave Market Risk - Week of May 3rd
_________________________
Short Term (18 Months)
Individual Stocks: 62% (Down 3 from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Down 2 from previous week)
__________________________
Long Term (3-5 Years)
Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week)
Oscillator: .46 (Unchanged from previous week)**
**Previous week should have been .46 instead of .0
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v-WAVE 3.0 Guide
(Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions)
Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%
Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
v-Wave Vigilantes will be keeping an eye on the long v-Wave as well as the shorter one to see how we navigate this recent consolidation.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/5/2024 8:42:13 AM | | | | | | Re: v-Wave Current Image...........................
It seems that wasn't a very serious correction recently.
Even current events didn't shake the markets very much.
Still, the markets don't seem to be at bargain basement prices.
It's good to keep some dry powder on hand for future hunting seasons.
Best regards,
OAG Tom
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Week of May 10th
_________________________
Short Term (18 Months)
Individual Stocks: 65% (Up 3 from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Up 2 from previous week)
__________________________
Long Term (3-5 Years)
Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week)
Oscillator: .0 (Unchanged from previous week)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
v-WAVE 3.0*
Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions
Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%
Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24% |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/6/2024 10:29:23 AM | | | | | | April Results Roundup............
Tom's Sandbox of 10 Stocks......
Down 2.04% for Month; Up 2.7% YTD
80% Invested
International Style ETF Composite of 9 ETFs
Down 2.19% for Month; Up 1.4% YTD
82% Invested
Tom's Retirement Account
Down 3.26%; Up 7.5% YTD
79% Invested
Tom's US Sector ETF Composite
Down 4.37%; Up 2.4% YTD
85% Invested
Not the greatest month but considering everything, April turned out okay. It was surprising to see International ETFs down less than the US Sector portfolio for the month. Cash Reserves are still healthy, if a bit on the low side. Overall, no buys were generated in April.
Best regards,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/13/2024 9:17:10 AM | | | | | | Overall Q1 Earnings didn't come in badly, so the markets seem to be celebrating. This is happening even as the v-Wave Market Risk hasn't relaxed that much.
At least it's staying below the Caution threshold.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/13/2024 9:21:56 AM | | | | | | Here's the latest on the two Model Portfolios I watch at Value Line.............................
Above Average Dividends...........................
Above Average 3-5 Year Appreciation Potential......................
The "Growth" list is quite stable and these stocks don't rotate very often. This is good for AIM as Mr. Lichello's management method takes TIME to provide its benefits. This makes a great shopping list when the markets are in correction.
The "Dividend" list provides a good source of stocks for long term total return (dividends + price appreciation + AIM management). Rarely do these stocks fall precipitously, so they seem well suited for long term AIM management.
Both lists provide "Happy Hunting Grounds" for those with good AIM.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/16/2024 8:09:50 AM | | | | | | Tom's International Equity Warehouse (TIEW) Report........................
Yesterday our International Division had yet another Inventory Reduction. This time it was shares of
International Large Cap Dividend (DOL) that were sent via special courier to their new owners.
This 5% reduction in inventory came with a healthy 20% LIFO round trip gain. It's the second sale in DOL
so far this year. Shares were purchased in mid-2022, so this hasn't been a fast turn-over of inventory.
 
Once again, Mr. Lichello's AIM tripped trades nicely in sync with the Williams%R and Zig Zag reversals.
Accumulation/Distribution history also matches up as AIM was accumulating when others were in
Distribution mode, and more recently AIM has been distributing shares while others were anxiously in
Accumulation mode.
Maybe I should change my motto to:
"Accumulate when others are Distributing, Distribute when others are Accumulating!"
This is one of the components of my international "style" type ETF portfolio. It consists of small, mid and
large cap dividend ETFs, small, mid and large cap growth ETFs and one Intl REIT fund and small and
larger cap Emerging Markets ETFs.
I'm studying to learn how to say "Profits" in many different languages.....
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Chief Executive Officer at Tom's International Equity Warehouse
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 5/20/2024 9:12:24 AM | | | | | | Re: v-Wave graphic.....................
I'd feel more comfortable if we saw the v-Wave closer to the Median value. Still, it's less than one standard deviation from that mark.
As Robert A. Heinlein said, "Climate is what you Expect, Weather is what you Get!"
The current v-Wave suggests it's a good idea to keep an umbrella handy!
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 6/3/2024 11:02:08 AM | | | | | | v-Wave Market Risk Indicator for AIM users, in Living Color!
It appears the markets are struggling to break out from current levels when faced with market risk headwinds. Of course, this assumes that stock market investors act logically. The major indexes do show three interpretations of investor sentiment. Recently the S&P 500 has been able to outshine the NASDAQ Composite and the Dow 30. Capitalization weighting in the indexes can cause this sort of differential. In this link, you can see the difference between the S&P 500 (traditional cap weighted) and the S&P 500 Equal Cap Weighted indexes. Once again we see that a few very large cap stocks outshine the broader markets. This equates to what we hear is 'poor market breadth.'
stockcharts.com
A change in Value Line's longer term (3-5 Year) Model took place this week.
At Value Line, they spilled their coffee and in a fit of tantrum, they dropped Starbux (SBUX) from their 3-5 Year Growth model portfolio. They first added SBUX back in 2015 at around $40/share, so they've done okay with the holding.
schrts.co
This 9 year histogram shows there were several thrilling moments along the way where Robert Lichello's AIM method of stock inventory management would have helped out. Selling into strength and buying into weakness would have built out a handsome portfolio over this time frame.
Value Line replaces Starbux with Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) as a new addition to the long term growth model.
schrts.co
A quick glance at its history shows even more opportunities for the practicing AIM user. Value Line feels its longer term outlook is worthy of consideration. It appears AIM might lend a helpful hand along the way.
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 6/4/2024 6:41:49 PM | | | | | | Guess what! Another month has passed and along with it the first half of 2024. Here's where my AIM portfolios stand:
My 9 "Style" International ETF Portfolio:
My U.S. Business Sector ETF Portfolio (mostly Equal Cap Weight Sectors)
My 10 Common Stock Portfolio
My Retirement Account (after required distributions)
May turned out to be a pretty good month overall. Cash is slowly rebuilding as stocks and ETFs rise.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 8/1/2024 9:50:40 AM | | | | | | July turned in a mixed bag of performances. There was really not much change at all from previous periods.
Tom's 10 Stock Composite Portfolio
(17% Cash)
Tom's 9 International "Style" ETF Portfolio
(20% Cash)
Tom's U.S. Business Sector ETF Portfolio
(16% Cash)
Tom's Converted IRA Portfolio (was Contributory until January 2024)
(25% Cash)
Mr. Lichello's AIM continues to be a reasonable cure for the Summertime Blues. AIM added to cash reserves in some of these while cash treaded water in others.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
PS: my new office computer won't run my old picture editing software (company no longer exists) so I did these with "Paint." Resizing is something I'll have to learn!
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
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