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   Strategies & Market TrendsA.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board


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From: OldAIMGuy3/17/2024 8:37:15 AM
   of 18865
 
It's been a while since I posted the v-Wave risk indicator here. I lost access to Microsoft 365 and have been trying to get things back.



Risk is much closer to its Caution range than Proactive.

Week of March 22nd
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 72% (Up 2 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 48% (Up 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: 1.90 (Down .15 from previous week)

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From: OldAIMGuy3/29/2024 10:11:52 AM
   of 18865
 
Q1 Finals for Tom's International Equity Warehouse

IRA (no longer a contributing IRA since I retired)


10 Common Stock Composite (each stock a separate AIM engine)

International "Style" type ETF composite portfolio
(Large, Mid and Small Cap ETFs in both Growth and Value plus Intl REITs and Small and Large Emerging Markets Dividend ETFs)


U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite
(built primarily from equal weight ETFs)


Overall these accounts are doing well and equaled or broke into new all time highs in March. Cash is starting to rebuild to healthier levels.

Happy Long Weekend,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy4/7/2024 6:23:03 PM
1 Recommendation   of 18865
 


It's not looking very cheery for the 18 Month portion of the v-Wave. AIM should have helped raise some cash since the late 2023 Lows.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy4/10/2024 3:48:01 PM
   of 18865
 
I told that guy to be careful with that bottle of Red Ink.
And now he's gone and spilled it all over my portfolio today!!!

OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy4/14/2024 11:11:12 AM
2 Recommendations   of 18865
 
The v-Wave remains cautious this week with the values unchanged from a week ago.
A look back shows there were better times for starting new AIM investment engines
and I'm guessing there will be better times arriving in the future, too.



My own AIM engines show drifting away from their nearest Sell target prices but are
mostly still quite far away from any buying. The exception is my IAU (gold surrogate)
position which is nearing an AIM sell for 10% of its position. This weekend's news
may push IAU and other gold investments higher, too.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy4/22/2024 7:57:21 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18865
 
The Index trimming we've seen in the last week shows just how much a surprise event can
affect a market that was showing signs of risk stress already. Note that RISK didn't get worse
because of the tensions, it relaxed a bit as share prices declined. Value Line's P/E dropped
nicely along with the index gains. It's "Appreciation Potential" improved as the markets
gave back some of their recent declines. That improved our v-Wave's current outlook. It's not
yet back to bargain levels seen in late 2022 so keep some powder dry.



Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy4/28/2024 11:53:38 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18865
 
While the 3-5 Year vW didn't change, that's a nice reduction in apparent market risk for the shorter range 18 Month view.


AIM / v-Wave Market Risk - Week of May 3rd

_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 62% (Down 3 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Down 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: .46 (Unchanged from previous week)**
**Previous week should have been .46 instead of .0
---------------------------------------------------------------------



v-WAVE 3.0 Guide
(Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions)
Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%

v-Wave Vigilantes will be keeping an eye on the long v-Wave as well as the shorter one to see how we navigate this recent consolidation.



Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy5/5/2024 8:42:13 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18865
 
Re: v-Wave Current Image...........................



It seems that wasn't a very serious correction recently.
Even current events didn't shake the markets very much.

Still, the markets don't seem to be at bargain basement prices.
It's good to keep some dry powder on hand for future hunting seasons.

Best regards,
OAG Tom

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week of May 10th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Up 3 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Up 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: .0 (Unchanged from previous week)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%

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From: OldAIMGuy5/6/2024 10:29:23 AM
1 Recommendation   of 18865
 
April Results Roundup............

Tom's Sandbox of 10 Stocks......
Down 2.04% for Month; Up 2.7% YTD

80% Invested

International Style ETF Composite of 9 ETFs
Down 2.19% for Month; Up 1.4% YTD

82% Invested

Tom's Retirement Account
Down 3.26%; Up 7.5% YTD

79% Invested

Tom's US Sector ETF Composite
Down 4.37%; Up 2.4% YTD


85% Invested

Not the greatest month but considering everything, April turned out okay. It was surprising to see International ETFs down less than the US Sector portfolio for the month. Cash Reserves are still healthy, if a bit on the low side. Overall, no buys were generated in April.

Best regards,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy5/13/2024 9:17:10 AM
   of 18865
 
Overall Q1 Earnings didn't come in badly, so the markets seem to be celebrating. This is happening even as the v-Wave Market Risk hasn't relaxed that much.



At least it's staying below the Caution threshold.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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