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Strategies & Market Trends A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	1/13/2024 8:06:55 AM
	2 Recommendations of 18866

Looking back on the v-Wave over the last 40+ years we see it's pretty good at calling out 'low risk' periods. It offers reasonable caution during other times in the markets. Those who were able to shift cash into the markets at those various low risk periods got the extra benefit of averaging down in share price and leveraging up toward 100% invested at opportune times. Mr. LIchello's AIM is an appropriate method of adjusting the Equity/Cash ratio of an investment portfolio at such times. AIM's trading tends to be busiest on the Buy side right in sync with the v-Wave's low risk inflection points. Current v-Wave: Best wishes for 2024, OAG Tom

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18837)	1/20/2024 10:37:04 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	of 18866

Here's the v-Wave for this week....................... The 3-5 year is unchanged again for this week while the 18 month forecast is correcting a bit from its recent worries. My portfolio of international "style" type ETFs didn't quite get back to previous highs during 2023 but did improve overall. +13.3% YOY, 17% cash reserve at year's end. My portfolio of 10 common stocks hit a new record high at the close of 2023. +20.05% YOY, 19% cash reserve. Being a Retirement Account I've highlighted the mandatory distributions in yellow. Mr. LIchello's Twinvest is a great way to accumulate and build for future AIMing. Here's my contributory IRA at the end of 2023 as built with Twinvest. 20.0% cash reserve at year's end. Again, the mandatory distributions are shown in yellow. This account will easily roll to being an AIM account going forward now that I'm retiring. It's a very simple portfolio of Vanguard's VUG Growth Fund and a near cash equivalent ETF, RAVI. There's also a small amount in a money fund. The cash portion of the histogram is the combined value of RAVI and the MMF. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	3/17/2024 8:37:15 AM
	of 18866

It's been a while since I posted the v-Wave risk indicator here. I lost access to Microsoft 365 and have been trying to get things back. Risk is much closer to its Caution range than Proactive. *Week of March 22nd* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 72% (Up 2 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 48% (Up 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: 1.90 (Down .15 from previous week)

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From: OldAIMGuy	3/29/2024 10:11:52 AM
	of 18866

*Q1 Finals for Tom's International Equity Warehouse* IRA (no longer a contributing IRA since I retired) 10 Common Stock Composite (each stock a separate AIM engine) International "Style" type ETF composite portfolio (Large, Mid and Small Cap ETFs in both Growth and Value plus Intl REITs and Small and Large Emerging Markets Dividend ETFs) U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite (built primarily from equal weight ETFs) Overall these accounts are doing well and equaled or broke into new all time highs in March. Cash is starting to rebuild to healthier levels. Happy Long Weekend, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/7/2024 6:23:03 PM
	1 Recommendation of 18866

It's not looking very cheery for the 18 Month portion of the v-Wave. AIM should have helped raise some cash since the late 2023 Lows. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/10/2024 3:48:01 PM
	of 18866

I told that guy to be careful with that bottle of Red Ink. And now he's gone and spilled it all over my portfolio today!!! OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/14/2024 11:11:12 AM
	2 Recommendations of 18866

The v-Wave remains cautious this week with the values unchanged from a week ago. A look back shows there were better times for starting new AIM investment engines and I'm guessing there will be better times arriving in the future, too. My own AIM engines show drifting away from their nearest Sell target prices but are mostly still quite far away from any buying. The exception is my IAU (gold surrogate) position which is nearing an AIM sell for 10% of its position. This weekend's news may push IAU and other gold investments higher, too. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/22/2024 7:57:21 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18866

The Index trimming we've seen in the last week shows just how much a surprise event can affect a market that was showing signs of risk stress already. Note that RISK didn't get worse because of the tensions, it relaxed a bit as share prices declined. Value Line's P/E dropped nicely along with the index gains. It's "Appreciation Potential" improved as the markets gave back some of their recent declines. That improved our v-Wave's current outlook. It's not yet back to bargain levels seen in late 2022 so keep some powder dry. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/28/2024 11:53:38 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18866

While the 3-5 Year vW didn't change, that's a nice reduction in apparent market risk for the shorter range 18 Month view. *AIM / v-Wave Market Risk - Week of May 3rd* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 62% (Down 3 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Down 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: .46 (Unchanged from previous week) Previous week should have been .46 instead of .0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- *v-WAVE 3.0 Guide* (Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions) Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24% v-Wave Vigilantes will be keeping an eye on the long v-Wave as well as the shorter one to see how we navigate this recent consolidation. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/5/2024 8:42:13 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18866

Re: v-Wave Current Image........................... It seems that wasn't a very serious correction recently. Even current events didn't shake the markets very much. Still, the markets don't seem to be at bargain basement prices. It's good to keep some dry powder on hand for future hunting seasons. Best regards, OAG Tom ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Week of May 10th* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 65% (Up 3 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Up 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: .0 (Unchanged from previous week) ------------------------------------------------------------------- v-WAVE 3.0* Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24%

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