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Strategies & Market Trends A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/14/2024 11:11:12 AM
	2 Recommendations of 18867

The v-Wave remains cautious this week with the values unchanged from a week ago. A look back shows there were better times for starting new AIM investment engines and I'm guessing there will be better times arriving in the future, too. My own AIM engines show drifting away from their nearest Sell target prices but are mostly still quite far away from any buying. The exception is my IAU (gold surrogate) position which is nearing an AIM sell for 10% of its position. This weekend's news may push IAU and other gold investments higher, too. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/22/2024 7:57:21 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18867

The Index trimming we've seen in the last week shows just how much a surprise event can affect a market that was showing signs of risk stress already. Note that RISK didn't get worse because of the tensions, it relaxed a bit as share prices declined. Value Line's P/E dropped nicely along with the index gains. It's "Appreciation Potential" improved as the markets gave back some of their recent declines. That improved our v-Wave's current outlook. It's not yet back to bargain levels seen in late 2022 so keep some powder dry. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	4/28/2024 11:53:38 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18867

While the 3-5 Year vW didn't change, that's a nice reduction in apparent market risk for the shorter range 18 Month view. *AIM / v-Wave Market Risk - Week of May 3rd* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 62% (Down 3 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Down 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: .46 (Unchanged from previous week) Previous week should have been .46 instead of .0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- *v-WAVE 3.0 Guide* (Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions) Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24% v-Wave Vigilantes will be keeping an eye on the long v-Wave as well as the shorter one to see how we navigate this recent consolidation. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/5/2024 8:42:13 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18867

Re: v-Wave Current Image........................... It seems that wasn't a very serious correction recently. Even current events didn't shake the markets very much. Still, the markets don't seem to be at bargain basement prices. It's good to keep some dry powder on hand for future hunting seasons. Best regards, OAG Tom ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Week of May 10th* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 65% (Up 3 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Up 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: .0 (Unchanged from previous week) ------------------------------------------------------------------- v-WAVE 3.0* Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24%

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/6/2024 10:29:23 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18867

April Results Roundup............ Tom's Sandbox of 10 Stocks...... Down 2.04% for Month; Up 2.7% YTD 80% Invested International Style ETF Composite of 9 ETFs Down 2.19% for Month; Up 1.4% YTD 82% Invested Tom's Retirement Account Down 3.26%; Up 7.5% YTD 79% Invested Tom's US Sector ETF Composite Down 4.37%; Up 2.4% YTD 85% Invested Not the greatest month but considering everything, April turned out okay. It was surprising to see International ETFs down less than the US Sector portfolio for the month. Cash Reserves are still healthy, if a bit on the low side. Overall, no buys were generated in April. Best regards, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/13/2024 9:17:10 AM
	of 18867

Overall Q1 Earnings didn't come in badly, so the markets seem to be celebrating. This is happening even as the v-Wave Market Risk hasn't relaxed that much. At least it's staying below the Caution threshold. Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/13/2024 9:21:56 AM
	of 18867

Here's the latest on the two Model Portfolios I watch at Value Line............................. Above Average Dividends........................... Above Average 3-5 Year Appreciation Potential...................... The "Growth" list is quite stable and these stocks don't rotate very often. This is good for AIM as Mr. Lichello's management method takes TIME to provide its benefits. This makes a great shopping list when the markets are in correction. The "Dividend" list provides a good source of stocks for long term total return (dividends + price appreciation + AIM management). Rarely do these stocks fall precipitously, so they seem well suited for long term AIM management. Both lists provide "Happy Hunting Grounds" for those with good AIM. Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/16/2024 8:09:50 AM
	of 18867

Tom's International Equity Warehouse (TIEW) Report........................ Yesterday our International Division had yet another Inventory Reduction. This time it was shares of International Large Cap Dividend (DOL) that were sent via special courier to their new owners. This 5% reduction in inventory came with a healthy 20% LIFO round trip gain. It's the second sale in DOL so far this year. Shares were purchased in mid-2022, so this hasn't been a fast turn-over of inventory. Once again, Mr. Lichello's AIM tripped trades nicely in sync with the Williams%R and Zig Zag reversals. Accumulation/Distribution history also matches up as AIM was accumulating when others were in Distribution mode, and more recently AIM has been distributing shares while others were anxiously in Accumulation mode. Maybe I should change my motto to: "Accumulate when others are Distributing, Distribute when others are Accumulating!" This is one of the components of my international "style" type ETF portfolio. It consists of small, mid and large cap dividend ETFs, small, mid and large cap growth ETFs and one Intl REIT fund and small and larger cap Emerging Markets ETFs. I'm studying to learn how to say "Profits" in many different languages..... Best wishes, OAG Tom Chief Executive Officer at Tom's International Equity Warehouse Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	5/20/2024 9:12:24 AM
	of 18867

Re: v-Wave graphic..................... I'd feel more comfortable if we saw the v-Wave closer to the Median value. Still, it's less than one standard deviation from that mark. As Robert A. Heinlein said, "Climate is what you Expect, Weather is what you Get!" The current v-Wave suggests it's a good idea to keep an umbrella handy! Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy	6/3/2024 11:02:08 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18867

v-Wave Market Risk Indicator for AIM users, in Living Color! It appears the markets are struggling to break out from current levels when faced with market risk headwinds. Of course, this assumes that stock market investors act logically. The major indexes do show three interpretations of investor sentiment. Recently the S&P 500 has been able to outshine the NASDAQ Composite and the Dow 30. Capitalization weighting in the indexes can cause this sort of differential. In this link, you can see the difference between the S&P 500 (traditional cap weighted) and the S&P 500 Equal Cap Weighted indexes. Once again we see that a few very large cap stocks outshine the broader markets. This equates to what we hear is 'poor market breadth.' stockcharts.com A change in Value Line's longer term (3-5 Year) Model took place this week. At Value Line, they spilled their coffee and in a fit of tantrum, they dropped Starbux (SBUX) from their 3-5 Year Growth model portfolio. They first added SBUX back in 2015 at around $40/share, so they've done okay with the holding. schrts.co This 9 year histogram shows there were several thrilling moments along the way where Robert Lichello's AIM method of stock inventory management would have helped out. Selling into strength and buying into weakness would have built out a handsome portfolio over this time frame. Value Line replaces Starbux with Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) as a new addition to the long term growth model. schrts.co A quick glance at its history shows even more opportunities for the practicing AIM user. Value Line feels its longer term outlook is worthy of consideration. It appears AIM might lend a helpful hand along the way. OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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