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Strategies & Market Trends A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	9/15/2023 9:30:51 AM
	2 Recommendations of 18868

The end of August left V.I.E.W.s portfolios with modest setbacks from the previous month. However, all are ahead of where they started 2023 so far. Simple Contributory IRA - Managed with modified Twinvest using VUG as the Growth component and cash (20% Cash Reserve) Tom's 10 Company Stocks portfolio - Each managed as a separate AIM engine (21% Cash Reserve) U.S. Business Sector ETF Portfolio - Each managed as separate AIM engines (12% Cash Reserve) 9 International "Style" ETF Portfolio - Each managed as separate AIM engines (16% Cash Reserve) While we're sailing with a lot of Canvas unfurled we're keeping a steady course with AIM as our navigator. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	10/2/2023 7:51:22 AM
	of 18868

Welcome to the first week of October. It appears that market risk and index highs of the 2023 Summer both peaked at about the same time. With the long term v-Wave back to Median level, maybe we can put September in the rear view mirror! Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	10/8/2023 12:51:30 PM
	1 Recommendation of 18868

The v-Wave comes in at its Median value again this week for the 3-5 year outlook.... Best wishes, OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy	11/1/2023 8:02:16 AM
	of 18868

We're seeing the mid-Summer, 2023 market risk unwind as the big indexes sag. *Week of November 3rd* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 40% (Down 12 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 27% (Down 8 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 41% (Down 2 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 27% (Down 2 from previous week) Oscillator: -3.63 (Down 2.51 from previous week) ----------------------------------------------- VWAVE 3.0* Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24% The 3-5 Year v-Wave is now below its Median which indicates slightly greater potential for appreciation in stock prices looking out over that time frame. The shorter term v-Wave forecast is also getting to look better. Best regards, OAG

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18834)	11/18/2023 8:00:09 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	1 Recommendation of 18868

The "Large Cap" rally has made for better looking Indexes but hasn't really spread downward to the Mid and Small Caps. Even so, market risk looks better than it did mid Summer 2023. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	12/14/2023 11:58:37 AM
	of 18868

Here's my AIM history since AMTD was merged into SCHW............................... Message 34508391 It's required some patience, but a double in this time frame is a nice thing. Best wishes, OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy	1/13/2024 8:06:55 AM
	2 Recommendations of 18868

Looking back on the v-Wave over the last 40+ years we see it's pretty good at calling out 'low risk' periods. It offers reasonable caution during other times in the markets. Those who were able to shift cash into the markets at those various low risk periods got the extra benefit of averaging down in share price and leveraging up toward 100% invested at opportune times. Mr. LIchello's AIM is an appropriate method of adjusting the Equity/Cash ratio of an investment portfolio at such times. AIM's trading tends to be busiest on the Buy side right in sync with the v-Wave's low risk inflection points. Current v-Wave: Best wishes for 2024, OAG Tom

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18837)	1/20/2024 10:37:04 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	of 18868

Here's the v-Wave for this week....................... The 3-5 year is unchanged again for this week while the 18 month forecast is correcting a bit from its recent worries. My portfolio of international "style" type ETFs didn't quite get back to previous highs during 2023 but did improve overall. +13.3% YOY, 17% cash reserve at year's end. My portfolio of 10 common stocks hit a new record high at the close of 2023. +20.05% YOY, 19% cash reserve. Being a Retirement Account I've highlighted the mandatory distributions in yellow. Mr. LIchello's Twinvest is a great way to accumulate and build for future AIMing. Here's my contributory IRA at the end of 2023 as built with Twinvest. 20.0% cash reserve at year's end. Again, the mandatory distributions are shown in yellow. This account will easily roll to being an AIM account going forward now that I'm retiring. It's a very simple portfolio of Vanguard's VUG Growth Fund and a near cash equivalent ETF, RAVI. There's also a small amount in a money fund. The cash portion of the histogram is the combined value of RAVI and the MMF. Best wishes, OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy	3/17/2024 8:37:15 AM
	of 18868

It's been a while since I posted the v-Wave risk indicator here. I lost access to Microsoft 365 and have been trying to get things back. Risk is much closer to its Caution range than Proactive. *Week of March 22nd* _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 72% (Up 2 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 48% (Up 2 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week) Oscillator: 1.90 (Down .15 from previous week)

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From: OldAIMGuy	3/29/2024 10:11:52 AM
	of 18868

*Q1 Finals for Tom's International Equity Warehouse* IRA (no longer a contributing IRA since I retired) 10 Common Stock Composite (each stock a separate AIM engine) International "Style" type ETF composite portfolio (Large, Mid and Small Cap ETFs in both Growth and Value plus Intl REITs and Small and Large Emerging Markets Dividend ETFs) U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite (built primarily from equal weight ETFs) Overall these accounts are doing well and equaled or broke into new all time highs in March. Cash is starting to rebuild to healthier levels. Happy Long Weekend, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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