| To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18827) | 7/30/2023 8:34:19 AM | | From: OldAIMGuy | | | | It would appear we're starting to see the short term upside potential of this market be limited by the rise in shorter term (18 month) risk. This is occurring even as the longer term picture remains essentially unchanged for the Year-To-Date.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 8/19/2023 9:17:39 AM | | | | | | The v-Wave was steady at the 3-5 Year measure and relaxed a bit for the 18 Month forecast.
The circled areas show the v-Wave was pretty good at calling last year's bottom and has been giving
good advice with this most recent peak in the indexes and rising market risk.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 9/11/2023 9:03:08 AM | | | | | | Here's the latest view of our v-Wave data...............................................
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 9/15/2023 9:30:51 AM | | | | | | The end of August left V.I.E.W.s portfolios with modest setbacks from the previous month. However, all are ahead of where they started 2023 so far.
Simple Contributory IRA - Managed with modified Twinvest using VUG as the Growth component and cash
(20% Cash Reserve)
Tom's 10 Company Stocks portfolio - Each managed as a separate AIM engine
(21% Cash Reserve)
U.S. Business Sector ETF Portfolio - Each managed as separate AIM engines
(12% Cash Reserve)
9 International "Style" ETF Portfolio - Each managed as separate AIM engines
(16% Cash Reserve)
While we're sailing with a lot of Canvas unfurled we're keeping a steady course with AIM as our navigator.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 10/2/2023 7:51:22 AM | | | | | | Welcome to the first week of October.
It appears that market risk and index highs of the 2023 Summer both peaked at about the same time.
With the long term v-Wave back to Median level, maybe we can put September in the rear view mirror!
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 10/8/2023 12:51:30 PM | | | | | | The v-Wave comes in at its Median value again this week for the 3-5 year outlook....
Best wishes,
OAG |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 11/1/2023 8:02:16 AM | | | | | | We're seeing the mid-Summer, 2023 market risk unwind as the big indexes sag.
Week of November 3rd
_________________________
Short Term (18 Months)
Individual Stocks: 40% (Down 12 from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 27% (Down 8 from previous week)
__________________________
Long Term (3-5 Years)
Individual Stocks: 41% (Down 2 from previous week)
Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 27% (Down 2 from previous week)
Oscillator: -3.63 (Down 2.51 from previous week)
-----------------------------------------------
VWAVE 3.0*
Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions
Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%
Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
The 3-5 Year v-Wave is now below its Median which indicates slightly greater potential for appreciation in stock prices looking out over that time frame. The shorter term v-Wave forecast is also getting to look better.
Best regards,
OAG |
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| To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18834) | 11/18/2023 8:00:09 AM | | From: OldAIMGuy | | | | The "Large Cap" rally has made for better looking Indexes but hasn't really spread downward to the Mid and Small Caps. Even so, market risk looks better than it did mid Summer 2023.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 12/14/2023 11:58:37 AM | | | | | | Here's my AIM history since AMTD was merged into SCHW...............................
Message 34508391
It's required some patience, but a double in this time frame is a nice thing.
Best wishes,
OAG |
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| From: OldAIMGuy | 1/13/2024 8:06:55 AM | | | | | | Looking back on the v-Wave over the last 40+ years we see it's pretty good at calling out 'low risk' periods. It offers reasonable caution during other times in the markets.
Those who were able to shift cash into the markets at those various low risk periods got the extra benefit of averaging down in share price and leveraging up toward 100% invested at opportune times. Mr. LIchello's AIM is an appropriate method of adjusting the Equity/Cash ratio of an investment portfolio at such times. AIM's trading tends to be busiest on the Buy side right in sync with the v-Wave's low risk inflection points.
Current v-Wave:
Best wishes for 2024,
OAG Tom |
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